Member Briefing July 7, 2025
US Factory Orders Surged In May On Strong Aircraft Demand
New orders for U.S.-manufactured goods rebounded in May on strong demand for aircraft and business spending on equipment appeared to be strong halfway through the second quarter. Factory orders increased 8.2% after a downwardly revised 3.9% drop in April, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast factory orders rebounding 8.2% after a previously reported 3.7% decline in April. They increased 3.2% on a year-on-year basis in May.
- Commercial aircraft orders soared 230.8%. That reflected at least 150 aircraft from Qatar Airways placed with Boeing during Trump's visit to the Gulf Arab country in May.
- Orders for motor vehicles, parts and trailers rose 0.8%.
- Orders for computers and electronic products increased 1.5%,
- Orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components rose 0.7%.
- Machinery orders gained 0.4%.
The government also reported that orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which are seen as a measure of business spending plans on equipment, rebounded 1.7% in May as estimated last month. Shipments of these so-called core capital goods rose 0.4%, revised down from the 0.5% reported last month. Non-defense capital goods orders jumped 49.5%. They were previously reported to have accelerated 49.4%. Shipments of these goods dipped 0.1% instead of being unchanged as previously reported.
Global Manufacturing PMI Pulls Back Into Expansion In June, But Concerns Persist
Worldwide manufacturing output growth rebounded in June from a decline in May, according to the latest PMI surveys. But with business confidence remaining subdued and the modest upturn in part reflecting unusually high inventory building in the US amid tariff worries, there are downside risks to output in the coming months. More encouragingly, some of this pay-back from tariff frontloading may be offset by signs of strengthening domestic demand in many economies. The Global Manufacturing PMI, sponsored by J.P. Morgan and compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, rose from 49.5 in May to 50.3 in June, edging above the 50 'no change' level for the first time in three months to indicate a marginal improvement in business conditions at the end of the second quarter.
The improved expansion in June occurred despite the survey data being collected at a time of continued uncertainty, notably in relation to tariffs. The 90-day pause on higher rate US tariffs is due to expire on 9th July. Concerns over US trade policy consequently played a key role in subduing business confidence among manufacturers worldwide in June to a level well below the survey's long-run average, unchanged compared to May and slightly below the average seen over the past three years.
Hiring Defied Expectations in June, With 147,000 New Jobs Led By State & Local Governments. Unemployment Rate 4.1%
The U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department reported Thursday, above the gain of 110,000 jobs economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected. The unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey of U.S. households, fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Revisions showed that hiring was stronger in prior months than previously thought. The number of jobs added in April and May was a combined 16,000 higher than prior estimates. More than half of the month’s gains came from state and local governments, which added a combined 80,000 jobs.
Manufacturing employment fell for the second straight month. “The underlying data tells you that we’re having a manufacturing recession,” said Henry McVey, head of global macro and asset allocation at KKR. The jobs report is a sign that manufacturers are holding off on hiring because of uncertainty over tariffs, said Sung Won Sohn, a professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymount University. The decline in the unemployment rate was driven in part by a drop in the number of people looking for work. The labor-force participation rate—the share of the working-age population that is employed or seeking employment—slipped to 62.3% from 62.4% in May. That was the lowest level since late 2022.
Global Headlines
Middle East
- Israel Sends Delegation To Qatar For Gaza Talks Ahead Of Netanyahu Trip To US – Reuters
- Iran's supreme leader makes first public appearance since Iran-Israel war started – Pittsburgh Post Gazette
- Hamas Issues "Positive Response" To Latest Gaza Ceasefire Proposal - CBS
- Israel and Hamas Have Different Reasons for Pursuing Gaza Deal - WSJ
- Hamas Security Officer Says Group Has Lost Control Over Most Of Gaza - BBC
- Iranian Nobel Laureate Says War Dealt Big Blow to Fight for Democracy - WSJ
- Former Mossad Official Details How Israel Eliminated Iran's Military Elite - BBC
- Interactive Map- Israel’s Operation In Gaza – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map
Ukraine
- Ukraine's Zelenskiy Says Latest Phone Call With Trump His Most Productive Yet – Reuters
- Trump Says He’s ‘Very Disappointed’ With Putin Conversation: ‘I Don’t Think He’s There’ – The Hill
- China Tells EU It Can’t Accept Russia Losing Its War Against Ukraine, Official Says - CNN
- Ukraine says it struck a Russian airbase as Russia sent drones into Ukraine - NPR
- Ukraine Fears Increased Russian Aggression After US Halt Of Weapons Supply - BBC
- Russian General Killed In Ukrainian Himars Strike - Yahoo
- Kyiv Hit By Barrage Of Drone Strikes As Putin Rejects Trump's Truce Bid - BBC
- Putin Faces Coal Crisis in Russia - Newsweek
- Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
- Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map
Other Headlines
- Modi And Milei Meet In Argentina Ahead Of BRICS Summit – France 24
- EU Weighs Skeleton US Trade Deal With 10 Percent Tariff - Politico
- Thousands Turn Out To Mark Dalai Lama's 90 Birthday - BBC
- Von der Leyen To Face Parliament Confidence Vote Thursday - Politico
- Key Suspect Arrested In Shooting Of Colombia Senator - BBC
- Parisians Take Their First Plunge Into The Seine In More Than A Century – France 24
- Wimbledon’s Break With Tennis Tradition Is Going Over About as Well as You’d Expect - WSJ
- Uganda's 80-Year-Old President In Bid To Extend 40-Year Rule - BBC
- Soccer Stars in Portugal to Pay Last Respects to Liverpool's Diogo Jota - Newsweek
Policy and Politics
White House to Start Notifying Countries About Tariffs, Trump Says
President Trump said early Friday that he was set to resume a set of tariffs that he initially imposed in April on dozens of countries, before pausing them for 90 days to negotiate individual deals. Most of those deals have yet to materialize. Some of them could be even steeper than originally announced, Mr. Trump said in brief remarks to reporters at Andrews Air Force Base upon returning from a rally in Iowa on Thursday.
“So we’re going to start sending letters out to various countries starting tomorrow,” Mr. Trump said, hours after the House passed his major domestic policy bill. “They’ll range in value from maybe 60 or 70 percent tariffs to 10 and 20 percent tariffs.” He said his administration would then send more letters each day until the end of the 90-day pause, on Wednesday, when he expected they would all be covered. On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Bloomberg Television that he expected about 100 countries would end up with a minimum 10 percent rate, but that more deals were in the offing. “I think we’re going to see a lot of action over the coming days,” he said. Last week, Mr. Bessent had suggested that some discussions could be extended until Sept. 1.
NY Wants All Vehicles Electric, Charging Them Will Be Challenging
New York's aggressive mandates to have all new light-duty passenger vehicles be zero-emission by 2035 faces significant obstacles due to shortfalls in the state's battery charging infrastructure and the electrical grid that would be needed to power it. The mandates would also require all new medium- and heavy-duty vehicles sold in New York be all-electric by 2045.
Energy experts and former power grid operators warn there may not be enough commercially available chargers to service the number of electric vehicles that's envisioned under New York's 2019 Climate Act, and questions remain about whether the state's power grid will be able to support the needs of all consumers, let alone the anticipated surge in EVs. "The issue is we're trying to balance the state's climate goals with feasibility, with practicality," said Ron Epstein, a former executive deputy commissioner of the state Department of Transportation who helped shape the state's 2019 Climate Act and its scoping plan. "Utility companies are really struggling to meet the demand. Not only are the materials not available to do this, the workforce is not available to do this in the timeframe that's being prescribed."
Trump’s Deregulation Score: Mid-Year Federal Rules Tally Is The Lowest Ever Recorded
The annual Ten Thousand Commandments report has, since 1993, tracked the inexorable accumulation of federal regulation. But mid-year data for 2025—Federal Register pages, total rules, significant rules, and executive orders—point to a striking departure from past trends. The Federal Register--the daily chronicle of federal rules, proposed regulations, and notices--is a key barometer of regulatory output. At this mid-point of 2025, the chronicle contains “only” 1,255 rules among its generationally slender 28,799 pages.
Last week’s Federal Register happens to be Trump’s fattest at 895 pages. It also contains his highest number of both proposed and final rules. But many of the proposed and final rules populating the Trump-era Register consist of pauses, revisions and withdrawals rather than hammer-down regulation of business and the public. 2025 is on pace to sport the lowest rule count of all time at an estimated 2,510 (that’s just a straight-line projection). That would best Trump’s own record for the all-time low rule count of 2,964 back in 2019. The takeaway seems to be that Trump’s one-in, ten-out executive order is having real effects, as the gross counts are the lowest ever seen, and largely deregulatory in character besides.
Political Headlines
- Trump Signs "Big, Beautiful Bill" In July Fourth Ceremony At White House – CBS
- Elon Musk Announces Creation Of His New ‘America Party’ – France 24
- At Least 83 Dead in Texas Floods, Including 15 Children - WSJ
- Here’s Where Trump’s Approval Ratings Stand On Key Issues – The Hill
- Rep. Mark Green Resigns From Congress, Leaving Speaker Johnson With An Even Narrower Republican Majority In The House - CNBC
- CIA Review Challenges Assessment of Russian Meddling in the 2016 Election - WSJ
- Andrew Cuomo Is Trying To Hang On To Support For A General Election Bid - Politico
- Rip Van Winkle Bridge Celebrates 90th Birthday – Mid-Hudson News
- The Sierra Club Sued To Halt The Construction Of A Data Center In Genesee County – Buffalo News
- Pentagon 'All In' on Air Force's F-47 Fighter, Shelves Navy F/A-XX - Newsmax
- Donald Trump Signals Breakthrough in US-China TikTok Deal - Newsweek
- Trump Tracker: Keep Tabs On The Latest Announcements And Executive Orders - WSJ
Health and Wellness
RFK Junior Wants To Ban An Ingredient In Vaccines. Is He Right?
On June 26th a vaccine advisory panel installed by Robert F. Kennedy junior, America’s health secretary, recommended that thimerosal (also spelt thiomersal), an ingredient used in some multi-dose vaccine vials, be removed from all flu jabs. Mr. Kennedy says that thimerosal is a neurotoxin that causes neurodevelopmental disorders, notably autism, in children. So against the chemical is he that in 2014 he published a book condemning it. His panelists seem to share his opinion: five out of seven voted in favour of the recommendation. An American ban on thimerosal now seems imminent. The evidence, however, strongly suggests this is a mistake.
Thimerosal is an antimicrobial agent that has been used for decades in multi-dose vaccine vials to reduce the risk of contamination from repeated syringe insertions. Sceptics gripe that it contains ethylmercury, a compound of mercury. Exposure to high levels of this metal has been shown to impair cognitive development in children. When American rates of autism were found to be increasing in the 1990s, the thimerosal in childhood vaccines was closely scrutinised. As a precautionary measure, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommended that thimerosal be removed from childhood vaccines. The weight of scientific evidence strongly suggests that the FDA was being too cautious. A study by scientists at the University of Aarhus, published in 2003 in Pediatrics, found that rates of autism in Denmark increased despite the removal of thimerosal from all the country’s vaccines in 1992.
Industry News
Bessent: Tariffs Will ‘Boomerang’ Back To April Levels By Aug. 1 For Countries Without Deals
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that tariffs announced back in April will take effect on Aug. 1 for countries that have not reached an agreement with President Donald Trump’s administration. “President Trump’s going to be sending letters to some of our trading partners saying that if you don’t move things along, then on August 1, you will boomerang back to your April 2 tariff level,” Bessent said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
On Aug. 1, countries will “get a letter saying that if we have not reached an agreement, then you will go back to the April 2 level,” he said. Bessent rejected the idea that Aug. 1 is yet another new tariff deadline, but the August date could still give trading partners more time to renegotiate tariff rates.
Trump Announces Vietnam Trade Deal, 20% Tariff On Its Imports To U.S.
President Donald Trump said Wednesday that the United States has struck a trade deal with Vietnam that includes a 20% tariff on the southeast Asian country’s imports to the U.S. Trump’s announcement on Truth Social said that the deal will give the U.S. tariff-free access to Vietnam’s markets. Vietnam also agreed that goods would be hit with a 40% tariff rate if they originated in another country and were transferred to Vietnam for final shipment to the United States. The process, known as transshipping, is used to circumvent trade barriers. China, a top exporter to the U.S., has reportedly used Vietnam as a transshipment hub.
“Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade. In other words, they will “OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES, meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff.” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.
OPEC+ Members Agree To Larger-Than-Expected Oil Production Hike In August
Eight oil-producing nations of the OPEC+ alliance agreed on Saturday to increase their collective crude production by 548,000 barrels per day, as they continue to unwind a set of voluntary supply cuts. This subset of the alliance — comprising heavyweight producers Russia and Saudi Arabia, alongside Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates — met digitally earlier in the day. They had been expected to increase their output by a smaller 411,000 barrels per day.
The eight producers have been implementing two sets of voluntary production cuts outside of the broader OPEC+ coalition’s formal policy. Oil prices were briefly boosted in recent weeks by the seasonal summer spike in demand and the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, which threatened both Tehran’s supplies and raised concerns over potential disruptions of supplies transported through the key Strait of Hormuz. At the end of the Friday session, oil futures settled at $68.30 per barrel for the September-expiration Ice Brent contract and at $66.50 per barrel for front month-August Nymex U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude.
140-Year-Old Del Monte Files For Bankruptcy, Searching For Buyer
Del Monte Foods, a 138-year old company, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Thursday. The company is headquartered in Walnut Creek, California, and operates six production facilities across the U.S., and two in Mexico. The company is now looking for a buyer with plans to sell off all of its assets. “After a thorough evaluation of all available options, we determined a court-supervised sale process is the most effective way to accelerate our turnaround and create a stronger and enduring Del Monte Foods. With an improved capital structure, enhanced financial position and new ownership, we will be better positioned for long-term success,” said Greg Longstreet, president and CEO of Del Monte Foods.
In addition to its flagship Del Monte brand, which includes canned fruits, vegetables, fruit cups, juices, and more, the company is also known for selling College Inn and Contadina products. The company began in 1886 before building a cannery in 1907 in San Francisco in 1907. Just two years later, in 1909, it had become the largest canned fruit and vegetable company in the world, according to the company’s website. While Del Monte says increased production costs are to blame for the company’s struggles, some experts say that canned foods, which rely heavily on preservatives, are no longer America’s go-to at the grocery store.
Samsung Delaying Completion Of US Chip Plant Due To Lack Of Customers
Samsung's second U.S. chip plant, originally scheduled to begin operations in 2024, has been delayed until 2026 due to a shortage of local customers, according to Nikkei Asia. The South Korean chipmaker has said it will invest more than $37 billion in Texas in the coming years, having been awarded a grant by the Biden administration of up to $4.7 billion in December under the CHIPS and Science Act. A chip supply chain executive familiar with the matter also told Nikkei Asia that Samsung, which already makes chips in Austin, Texas, is in no hurry to install chipmaking equipment in the new plant.
Samsung’s delay in completing its U.S. chip plant highlights the broader difficulties semiconductor companies encounter when expanding globally. TSMC faced similar hurdles—including construction setbacks and labor shortages—during the development of its first advanced facility in Arizona. Despite those challenges, the plant began mass production late last year and has since landed major AI chip clients, including Nvidia, AMD, Amazon, and Google. Analysts say Samsung's contract chipmaking business is also struggling with yield, a key metric for assessing production quality in chip manufacturing.
How China's New Auto Giants Left GM, VW And Tesla In The Dust
China’s emerging automotive dominance owes largely to a singular manufacturing achievement – slashing vehicle-development time by more than half, to as little as 18 months for an all-new or redesigned model. The average age of a Chinese-brand electric or plug-in hybrid model on sale domestically is 1.6 years, versus 5.4 years for foreign brands, consultancy AlixPartners found. That speed has rattled legacy automakers, which have historically redesigned vehicles about once every five years, or once a decade for pickups.
This account of how Chinese automakers outmaneuvered global rivals is based on interviews with more than 40 people, including current and former executives, employees and investors at five Chinese and seven global automakers and more than a dozen industry experts. Reuters visited BYD’s Shenzhen headquarters, factories of Chinese EV brands Zeekr and Nio, and European R&D centers of Zeekr and Chery.
Lululemon’s Lawsuit Against Costco Highlights The Rise Of Fashion ‘Dupes’
Fashion “dupes,” or less expensive versions of high-end clothing and other accessories, are just about everywhere these days. They’re also drawing some businesses into legal battles.In the latest example, Lululemon filed a lawsuit against Costco on Friday, accusing the wholesale club operator of selling lower-priced duplicates of some of its popular athleisure apparel. Across the retail industry, it’s far from a new phenomenon. But social media is pushing the culture of online dupe shopping to new heights as influencers direct their followers to where they can buy the knockoffs.
While popular among shoppers, these kind of look-alikes can frustrate the targeted companies. Following the viral fame of the “wirkin,” Hermès Executive Chairman Axel Dumas shared his annoyance, for example. “Making a copy like this is quite detestable,” Dumas said in a corporate earnings call in February. Still, he acknowledged that it was “quite touching” to see so many consumers want a bag with the Birkin style — and that “difference in quality” was still evident, noting that nobody bought the dupe thinking it was from Hermès.
Scandinavian Airlines Orders 45 Embraer Jets for $4B
Scandinavian Airlines is buying 45 Embraer E195-E2 aircraft in an approximately $4-billion purchase that is the carrier’s jet order in almost 30 years. The agreement includes rights for an additional 10 aircraft, and signals SAS’ ongoing fleet-renewal efforts while promoting more aircraft efficiency and lower emissions – and according to the manufacturer “unlocking future growth opportunities from its global hub”.
The E195-E2 is the largest aircraft built by the Brazilian manufacturer. It’s a twin-engine, narrow-body jet designed for high-density routes, with capacity for up to 146 passengers. It has a range of 2,600 nautical miles (2,992 miles / 4,815 km.) The E2 jets are powered by Pratt & Whitney PW1900G GTF engines, which promise double-digit reductions in fuel burn, emissions, and noise compared to previous-generation aircraft. "The E2 is the quietest single aisle jet available today,” according to Arjan Meijer, president and CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation: “29% more fuel efficient and with a 62% reduction in noise footprint over the previous generation jet, the E195-E2 is a game-changer in terms of efficiency, performance, and passenger comfort.”
Read more at American Machinist
Ancient Egyptian History May Be Rewritten By DNA Bone Test
A DNA bone test on a man who lived 4,500 years ago in the Nile Valley has shed new light on the rise of the Ancient Egyptian civilisation. An analysis of his skeleton shows he was 60 years old and possibly worked as a potter, but also that a fifth of his DNA came from ancestors living 1,500km away in the other great civilisation of the time, in Mesopotamia or modern day Iraq. The findings lend new weight to the view that writing and agriculture arose through the exchange of people and ideas between these two ancient worlds.
The DNA was taken from a bone in the inner ear of remains of a man buried in Nuwayrat, a village 265km south of Cairo. He died between 4,500 and 4,800 years ago, a transformational moment in the emergence of Egypt and Mesopotamia. Archaeological evidence indicated that the two regions may have been in contact at least 10,000 years ago when people in Mesopotamia began to farm and domesticate animals, leading to the emergence of an agricultural society. Many scholars believe this social and technological revolution may have influenced similar developments in ancient Egypt – but there has been no direct evidence of contact, until now.