Member Briefing May 6, 2026

First Refunds Of Trump Tariffs To Start As Early As May 12, Customs Agency Says

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency said on ​Monday it now estimates the first ‌electronic refunds from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs deemed illegal by the Supreme ​Court will start as soon ​as May 12, a day later ⁠than an earlier estimate.

The estimated ​start date for Automated Clearing House (ACH) payments ​was disclosed in a message to shippers announcing the availability of status reports that ​allow claimants to monitor the ​processing status of their refunds.

In a Court of ‌International ⁠Trade order last week, the agency was expected to start refunds around May 11. No reason was given for ​the ​date change.

Up ⁠to $166 billion of CBP collections from Trump's tariffs imposed ​under the International Emergency Economic ​Powers ⁠Act are subject to CBP refunds. The Supreme Court ruled that Trump ⁠overstepped ​his authority in using ​the 1977 sanctions law to impose tariffs.

Read more at Reuters

JOLTS Report: US Job Openings Drop In March; Hires Increase Sharply

U.S. job openings slipped in March, but a surge in hiring suggested the ​labor market was regaining its footing after ‌struggling last year. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, were down 56,000 to 6.866 million by the last day ​of March, the Labor Department's Bureau ​of Labor Statistics said in its Job Openings ⁠and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. ​Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 6.835 million unfilled ​jobs.

• The job openings rate eased to 4.1% from 4.2% in February.
• Job openings in the manufacturing industry rose to 462,000 from 443,000 in February. Last year, there were 389,000 openings in March.
• Hiring jumped by 655,000 to 5.554 million. The hires rate increased to ​3.5% from 3.1% in February.
• Hiring increased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+1.08K); professional and business services (+165K); and accommodation and food services (+124K). Hiring activity declined by 7K in the federal government.
• Layoffs and discharges, ​however, increased by 153,000 to 1.867 million, with the rate for ‌that ⁠category climbing to 1.2% from 1.1% in the prior month.
• the quits rate ticked up to 2.0% from 1.9% prior.

Read more at Reuters

Inside Ford’s Efforts To Build A $30,000 Electric Truck

The secret is now out as Ford races toward building its first model, a new truck it says will be nearly as fast as a Mustang, travel around 300 miles on a single charge and feature in-car technology to compete with Tesla and China. It’s aiming for a 2027 launch and a price tag of around $30,000, the cost of a Toyota Camry. Getting there means tearing up a century of manufacturing practices in a notoriously hidebound industry. At stake for Ford is securing a future beyond the gas-guzzling pickups and SUVs that have long defined its bottom line.

To build these new EVs, the company must use fewer people and simpler parts, and dismantle decades of engineering inertia. Chief Executive Jim Farley is calling it Ford’s new “Model T moment.” Rival automakers say overcoming China on EVs can’t be done, given their advantages: extensive government backing, low-cost labor and a massive head start. Whether Ford’s bet big will work may come down to how well Detroit and Silicon Valley can work together. Traditional automakers have sometimes tried to infuse outsider know-how into their operations, with often bleak results, from abandoned robotaxi projects to costly, unpopular EVs.

Read more at Ward’s Auto

Iran and the Middle East

• China’s Wang Yi And Iranian FM Back New Regional Security Framework In Gulf - SCMP
• Iran Says It Seeks 'Fair' Deal After Trump Pauses Naval Mission To Open Strait - Reuters
• Oil Accelerates Drop on Optimism Over Mideast Diplomacy - WSJ
• What To Know As The US Tries To Open The Strait Of Hormuz And A Ceasefire Wavers - AP
• US And Bahrain Push UN-Backed Action For Hormuz As Washington Seeks Maritime Coalition - Reuters
• Maersk Says Ship Passed Through Strait Of Hormuz Under U.S. Military Protection - CNBC
• Pentagon Says Iran’s Actions ‘Below the Threshold’ of Restarting War - WSJ
• Iran Is Using Its 1980s Playbook, Plus Drones, To Cripple Global Shipping - Reuters
• Palestinian Leader's Son, Yassar Abbas, Long In The Shadows, Seeks Political Role - Reuters
• Interactive Map – US and Israeli Attack in Iran – ArcGIS Story Maps
• Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map

Ukraine

• Russia Declares A Truce In Ukraine To Mark May 7 Victory Day. Kyiv Says It’ll Cease Fire Two Days Earlier - AP
• Russia's Vast Kirishi Oil Refinery Halts Processing After Drone Attack, Sources Say - Reuters
• Russia And Ukraine Announce Rival Ceasefires As Deadly Strikes Continue - BBC
• Zelenskyy Slams Russia’s ‘Utter Cynicism’ As Strikes Kill 5 In Ukraine Before Brief Truce Takes Hold – AP
• Ukraine Q1 GDP Shrinks 0.5% Year-On-Year, Statistics Service Says - Reuters
• Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Other World Headlines

• Guyana And Venezuela Return To UN Court To Settle Historic Dispute Over Valuable Border Region – AP
• Socialists And Far Right Topple Romanian Government - Politico
• ASEAN States Shift Oil Imports Toward Brunei, Libya And US – Nikkei Asia
• FIFA Has Met Its Match In The Garden State - Politico
• Two Killed And Many Injured After Car Driven Into Crowd In German City Of Leipzig - BBC
• Indonesia, Japan Sign Defence Cooperation Agreement - Reuters
• Iran War Could Give Xi The Upper Hand In Meeting With Trump: US Experts - SCMP
• China Targets 70% Advanced Domestic Silicon Wafer Use By 2026 – Nikkei Asia
• Taiwan’s President Says State Visits Are ‘Basic Right’ After Trip He Says Beijing Tried To Block - AP
• Dozens Killed, Scores Injured In Explosion At Chinese Fireworks Factory – France 24
• Brazil's Lula To Travel To US For Talks With Trump This Week, Sources Say – Reuters

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Siena Poll: Hochul Sees Drop In Favorability, Approval Ratings, But Lead Over Blakeman In Governor's Race Grows

Governor Kathy Hochul has a 41-46% favorability rating, down from 45-42% in March, her lowest favorability rating since June 2025. Her job approval rating stands at 48-44%, down from 52-40% in March, her lowest job approval rating since April 2025. At the same time, Hochul’s lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman edged up three points to 49-33%, from 47-34% in March, according to a new Siena Poll of New York State registered voters released today. Other poll highlights:

• Voters say, 49-32%, New York’s best days are still ahead, rather than behind us, and 7% say New York’s best days are taking place now.
• When it comes to New York’s $260+ billion budget and the money going to health care, education, infrastructure, and other programs, a plurality of voters, 36%, says the state does not spend enough, compared to 29% who say the spends the right amount, and 22% who say the state spends too much.
• On seven issues – cost of living, housing, crime, healthcare, infrastructure, environment, and education – a majority or plurality of Republicans and independents say the state is headed in the wrong direction.
• A majority of Democrats think the state is on the right track on five issues, but even Democrats agree with Republicans and independents that the state is headed in the wrong direction on housing and cost of living.
• Voters’ views of the State Legislature have soured. The Assembly’s favorability rating is now 33-36%, down from 41-32% in January. Similarly, the State Senate’s favorability rating is 35-39%, down from 43-37% in January.
• NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani is still viewed favorably – barely – by a plurality of voters statewide, 43-40%, down a little from 44-37% in March and 47-35% in February. His favorability rating in New York City is 56-34%, and it is worth noting, higher than Hochul, 46-37%, Attorney General Letitia James, 49-24%, and Senator Chuck Schumer, who is viewed unfavorably by New York City voters 37-45%.

Read more at The Siena Poll

9^th Extender, But NY State Budget Expected To Pass Soon. What We Know Now

A New York state budget deal is near, Gov. Kathy Hochul told reporters Friday, May 1. Over the course of the last month, three main issues have been said to be plugging up the timeline — adjustments to the state's climate law, car insurance rate reforms and changes to the state's environmental review process. However, other issues have been thrown into the mix such as a pied-á-terre tax on second homes in New York City, immigration and Tier 6 pension reforms. Hochul addressed the tax on Friday, saying that talks with city officials to figure out the specifics of the proposed tax are underway

.

Hochul last week also rejected New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's latest ask that the state provide more assistance to close the city's budget gap. Both the Senate and Assembly meet on Monday, May 4, which is the end date of their eighth budget extender. The total amount spent on keeping the government open past the April 1 deadline is up to $16.7 billion.

Read More at Lower Hudson Valley News

GOP, Face Tough Midterm Odds: 5 Things The Polls Reveal

It is almost exactly six months until the midterm elections, set for Nov. 3. As the clock ticks down, the state of the polls is becoming more salient. For now, the Beltway consensus is that Democrats are strong favorites to take control of the House, where the GOP is defending a tiny majority. Democrats could also spring a surprise in the Senate, where they had not been expected to have a realistic shot. An enormous amount can change in the coming months. Six months ago, few people thought the U.S. would be in a conflict with Iran that is roiling the economy. But here’s what the polls are saying right now.

• Trump is weighing down the GOP - The president’s approval ratings are very poor — and that spells trouble for his party.
• Inflation and the economy are key - Deepening the problem for Republicans, some of Trump’s weakest issues are the topics voters say are most important: the economy and, particularly, rising prices.
• Silver lining for GOP: Democratic Party also seen negatively - The DDHQ averages of party favorability ratings show only a narrow gap between the parties. Roughly 55 percent of voters view the GOP unfavorably, but 53 percent feel the same way about the Democratic Party.
• Democrats’ generic ballot lead: Significant, not huge - A key polling measure for predicting midterm results is the so-called generic ballot question. Pollsters ask voters some version of whether they would prefer Republicans or Democrats to control Congress, without getting into the specifics of local candidates. DDHQ and RCP both show Democrats with a roughly 5-point edge on the generic-ballot question.
• Voter enthusiasm favors Dems — probably - Polling results are, infamously, useful only insofar as they can predict which voters will actually cast a ballot. The available evidence points toward some level of advantage for Democrats. The Washington Post/ABC News poll, for example, found 79 percent of Democrats saying they were “absolutely certain” to vote, while only 72 percent of Republicans said the same.

Read more at The Hill

More Policy and Politics Headlines

• Where House, Senate Battles Stand Six Months Out – The Hill
• U.S. Fast-Tracks Arms Deals Valued at $8.6 Billion to Mideast Partners - NYT
• Senate GOP Unveils $72 Billion Proposal To Fund ICE, Border Patrol Through 2029 – The Hill
• Secret Service Shoots Armed Suspect Near White House After Brief Lockdown – France 24
• Breaking Down The Redistricting Arms Race Following The Supreme Court's VRA Ruling - Politico
• Trump Admin Moves Further Into AI Oversight, Will Test Google, Microsoft And xAI Models - CNBC
• Updated Federal Guidance And Funds May Boost Manufacturing Apprenticeships – Manufacturing Dive
• Rudy Giuliani Remains Hospitalized In Critical Condition With Pneumonia: Spokesperson - ABC
• Rubio To Meet Pope Leo, Meloni And Italian Ministers In Rome - Politico
• Why the Collapse of Spirit Airlines Means Higher Fares for Everyone – The WSJ

Marijuana Reclassification: What Are The Most Immediate Employer Impacts?

In a major policy shift last month, the Trump administration reclassified some forms of marijuana as less dangerous, significantly easing restrictions while creating new questions around compliance for employers. The order does not specify potential workplace impacts, note Littler attorneys Nancy North Delogu and Jen Chierek Znosko in a post about the move. “As a practical matter, however,” they write, “impacts may be substantial, at least in states with medical marijuana programs with broad application.”

Specifically, they say, “many more individuals will be authorized to use marijuana for medical reasons in a manner that complies with federal law than do now”—to the tune of 6 million Americans, who have state-issued certifications from one of the 40 states where the drug is approved for medical use. “Employers certainly may continue to prohibit individuals from working while impaired,” Delogu and Znosko say, “and to impose workplace rules prohibiting the use and possession of marijuana and marijuana products for other than medical reasons by their workers.” Yet, they say, get ready for accommodations requests. Claims under the Americans with Disabilities Act will likely rise. Employers should expect more workers to allege they faced adverse action because of medical marijuana use or failed to meet their requests for accommodations. Typically, courts have sided with employers on such issues because medical marijuana was still considered a Schedule I drug. That reasoning will be challenged under the new framework.

Read more at HR Executive

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast and Workforce Developers Expo - Thursday May 7, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. West Hills Country Club, Middletown.

Council of Industry Golf Outing - Monday August 24th 11:30 AM - 7:30 PM. The Powelton Club, Newburgh.

Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

C3POA - Key Perpectives on your CMMC Compiance Journey - Presented by Nick DeLena, PKF O'Connor Davies.

CMMC for Legacy Equipment: Securing Specialized Assets with Zero Trust Micro-Enclaves - Presented by Marc Hoover, Trout Software.

See previous episodes here!

Training

Introduction to Lean With Simulation, In Person at iPark 87 in Kingston.  May 19. 8:30 - 4:30.

Trade Wars

• ‘A Deal Is A Deal’: Von Der Leyen Fires Back At Trump Over Auto Tariff Threat – Politico
• Commission Blocks EU Funding For Huawei Solar Tech - Politico
• In What Ways Has U.S. Trade with China Changed? – NY Fed
• Un-Sanctioned: China To Welcome Dutch Trade Minister Amid Nexperia, ASML Discord - SCMP
• China To Scrap Tariffs On 53 African Nations To Boost Resource Imports – Nikkei Asia

An Aluminum Crisis Is Roiling the Auto Industry

The auto industry in North America consumed 3.7 million metric tons of aluminum last year, nearly 30% more than in 2020, according to metals-market consulting firm CRU. Lately, however, higher aluminum prices from the Iran war, a 50% U.S. tariff and a production outage by a major supplier have strained automakers. “The cost of metals, specifically aluminum, has been a big focus for us,” RJ Scaringe, chief executive of electric-vehicle maker Rivian Automotive, said on an earnings call last week. The pain is especially acute at Ford. The automaker switched the F-150—America’s bestselling vehicle—to an aluminum exterior body from steel in 2014.

The U.S. cost of primary aluminum from smelters is nearly 90% higher than a year ago. The war in Iran is driving up prices by effectively choking off shipments from the Persian Gulf countries, which supply about one-fifth of the aluminum consumed in the U.S. The U.S. aluminum industry is also heavily dependent on imported primary aluminum, mostly from Canada, but automakers and other buyers pay the tariff no matter where the metal comes from. With the global aluminum price at about $3,500 a metric ton, the tariff and delivery-related charges raise the U.S. price to $6,100, compared with $3,220 paid a year ago, according to S&P Global Energy.

Read more at the WSJ

Pentagon Modernizes SBIR, STTR To Spur Small Business Innovation

The U.S. government is modernizing its Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer (SBIR/STTR) programs to get after contemporary warfare and national security gaps, senior officials involved in the work said on Wednesday. Referred to collectively as “America’s seed fund,” that decades-old pair of federal programs provides technology-focused small businesses and startups with early-stage investments and support to commercialize their products, and ultimately field them for use by federal agencies and the military.

President Donald Trump signed that legislation into law earlier this month, which officially reauthorized the government’s SBIR/STTR programs through Sept. 30, 2031. The bill introduces several substantive changes to the programs’ administration and oversight, as well as other reforms to speed up the operationalization of federally-funded tech produced by small businesses. “This is how we turn American ingenuity into an overwhelming battlefield advantage for the warfighter. We’re looking at the leaders in this room right now to carry the legacy forward,” Pentagon’s Chief Technology Officer Emil Michael said. “Many of the companies here today are innovating in space, AI, hypersonics and quantum to ensure that our warfighters can confidently face the emerging threats of our adversaries.”

Read more at Defense Scoop

GM’s US Manufacturing Investments Surpass $6B In One Year

General Motors said it plans to invest a combined $830 million across three U.S. automotive factories, bringing its total spend in U.S. manufacturing to $6 billion over the past year. The installments will expand 10-speed transmission production at GM’s major facilities in Romulus, Michigan and Toledo, Ohio, as well as V-8 engine block and head capacity at its metal casting plant in Saginaw, Michigan, according to a news release.

Some of the expansions are already underway to support the launch of GM’s new model trucks and SUVs as the company looks to pivot away from electric vehicle production due to tax credit changes. As part of the recent commitments, GM said it plans to invest $300 million to add more transmission capacity for its full-size trucks and SUVs at Romulus Propulsion Systems. GM initially invested $300 million last year to support this work. The facility employs about 1,000 people. GM also plans to spend an additional $40 million to increase transmission capacity for its light-duty trucks at Toledo Propulsion Systems.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

New College Graduates Overestimate Starting Salaries By Nearly $24,000, Report Finds

Today’s college seniors expect to make about $80,000 one year after graduation, according to a survey of undergraduates pursuing a bachelor’s degree by real estate site Clever in February and March. Yet, the average starting salary for recent graduates is $56,153, Clever found, a difference of nearly $24,000. The disconnect between perception and reality only worsens over time. A decade into their careers, students anticipate making $144,889 on average. That’s well over the average midcareer salary of $95,521, according to Clever.

Amid a shaky job market, rising tuition and ballooning student loan balances, more young adults are questioning whether a college degree is worth it, several studies show. At the same time, students across majors overestimated the future value of their degrees, Clever found. Engineers, for example, expected a starting salary of $92,452, according to Clever, nearly 20% more than they are likely to earn one year after graduating. On the upside, the unemployment rate among college graduates with a bachelor’s degree is under 4%, according to March data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employers plan to hire about 5.6% more new grads from this year’s class than they hired from the class of 2025, according to a report from the National Association of Colleges and Employers.

Read more at CNBC

RAM Price Hikes: The Latest On The Global Memory Shortage

Random access memory, or RAM, is in just about every piece of technology we use. But it’s also the technology that AI companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta are using to power the servers in their massive data centers. Now, the world’s biggest memory makers — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — are taking advantage of a surge in demand, shifting their resources away from consumer-focused products and toward more lucrative deals with AI companies. The RAM shortage is going to subside anytime soon, as analysts at the International Data Corporation predict that it could “persist well into 2027.”

The result is a severe shortage in RAM for consumer products, which is not only contributing to price hikes on the RAM kits used by PC builders but also for the manufacturers of a range of devices, including laptops, smartphones, gaming consoles, and a whole lot more. Some companies, like Raspberry Pi and Framework, have already raised the prices of their products as a result of the increase, while others, like Dell, Asus, Acer, Xiaomi, and Nothing, have warned about price hikes coming soon.

Read more at The Verge

Amazon Built a Massive Supply Chain for Itself. Now It’s for Hire.

Amazon.com thinks its next AWS is in its warehouses. The e-commerce giant is trying to do for logistics what its Amazon Web Services unit did for cloud computing with a new business called Amazon Supply Chain Services. The company over two decades grew AWS from an internal effort to better manage its technology systems into the largest service of its kind. Now, it hopes to do the same with its sprawling global supply chain by opening up its network to more business customers—including those that don’t sell on Amazon’s retail marketplace.

The nation’s largest company by revenue on Monday is announcing the launch of Amazon Supply Chain Services, a centralized place for companies from consumer-goods manufacturers to apparel retailers to hire Amazon for services such as fulfillment, ocean and air shipping, and truck transportation. The move to tie together all of its supply-chain services in one place in effect officially makes Amazon a third-party logistics provider, or 3PL. Amazon over nearly three decades has assembled a supply chain spanning the globe with warehouses, planes, trucks and delivery vehicles. Its last-mile delivery service has grown to become the nation’s largest parcel carrier by volume, ahead of United Parcel Service, FedEx and the U.S. Postal Service. The company has built its own logistics technology to forecast demand, plan inventory and route freight.

Read more at The WSJ

Raytheon Delivers Second Missile-Warning Sensor to US Space Force

Raytheon has delivered its second sensor to Lockheed Martin, the lead contractor for the US Space Force’s (USSF) mid-latitude missile warning and tracking satellite program. The sensor payloads feature advanced optical designs and algorithms to detect the heat signatures of missile launches, including hypersonic weapon systems. Lockheed secured a $4.9-billion contract in January 2021 to produce three Next-Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared (Next-Gen OPIR) Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) Block 0 satellites, commonly known as NGG satellites, by May 2028. The first satellite — also featuring Raytheon’s sensors — is already complete and ready to support initial launch capability, according to the RTX-owned company.

Featuring enhanced sensors and persistent missile-warning coverage from geosynchronous orbit roughly 22,000 miles (35,400 kilometers) above Earth, the satellites will complement the Space Systems Command’s MEO missile-track custody satellites and the Space Development Agency’s Tracking Layer constellation in low Earth orbit. The program passed a critical design review in August 2021, initially targeting a 2025 launch for its first satellite, which the Government Accountability Office warned was overly ambitious.

Read More at Defense Post

Pentagon Announces Deals With Google, Nvidia, And Others To Use AI In Fighting Wars

The Pentagon said Friday that it has reached deals with seven tech companies to use their artificial intelligence in its classified computer networks, allowing the military to tap into AI-powered capabilities to help it fight wars. Google, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Nvidia, OpenAI, Reflection and SpaceX will provide their resources to help “augment warfighter decision-making in complex operational environments,” the Defense Department said. The Pentagon said Friday that military personnel are already using its AI capabilities through its official platform, GenAI.mil.

Notably absent from the list is AI company Anthropic, after its public dispute and legal fight with the Trump administration over the ethics and safety of AI usage in war.The Defense Department has been rapidly accelerating its use of AI in recent years. The technology can help the military reduce the time it takes to identify and strike targets on the battlefield, while aiding in the organization of weapons maintenance and supply lines. In many cases, the military uses artificial intelligence the same way civilians do: to take on rote tasks that would take humans hours or days to complete. AI can be used to better predict when a helicopter needs maintenance or figure out how to efficiently move large amounts of troops and gear. It can also help determine whether vehicles on a drone’s surveillance feeds are civilian or military.

Read more at Fast Company

Summer Forecast 2026: Heat, Severe Storms To Shape The Season As El Niño Develops, Strengthens

Summer 2026 is expected to bring a volatile mix of heat, severe thunderstorms and flooding to the United States, with El Niño developing and flexing its influence on the weather pattern. A hot summer is predicted across most of the contiguous United States in 2026, with almost no areas expected to have temperatures below the historical average for the season. The widespread heat will drive up energy demand and could lead to higher electric bills.

The worst of the heat will focus across parts of California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming, fueling a widespread fire threat. The heat will not be limited to the West. In the Northeast, there could be a "late surge of heat and higher humidity," according to AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok. The added humidity will boost AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures during the day and contribute to warmer nights. El Niño is forecast to strengthen and could evolve into a rare "super El Niño" later in 2026 when it could have bigger impacts on the weather across the United States in the final months of 2026 and the start of 2027.

Read more at AccuWeather

Daily Market Update May 05, 2026

The June ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.04 at $2.82. The June ‘26 crude oil contract is down $3.92 at $102.50. 

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“The greatest compliment that was ever paid me was when one asked me what I thought, and attended to my answer.”

Henry David Thoreau - American Naturalist who died on this day in 1862.

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