Member Briefing September 21, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey: Execs Expect Costs To Continue Rising

Manufacturers expect costs to continue rising, with raw material and other input costs projected to increase 5.0% over the next year as the conflict in the Middle East and ongoing trade uncertainty continue to pressure supply chains, according to the Q3 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey. Increased raw material costs remained manufacturers’ top business challenge for the second consecutive quarter, with rising healthcare costs and trade uncertainty rounding out the top three.

Against that backdrop, manufacturers’ optimism continues to tick up, rising from 74.2% in Q2 to 78.9% in Q3, buoyed by expectations for stronger sales. Manufacturers surveyed project sales, production, capital investments and exports to grow at the fastest rate in more than four years over the next 12 months. To fuel that anticipated growth, nearly two-thirds (63.0%) of manufacturers plan to import industrial machinery (including parts and components) in the next year to support existing or planned manufacturing operations. Of those, 69.2% plan to use the machinery to upgrade or replace existing machinery, while 63.6% mentioned plans to use the machinery for new or expanded operations.

Read more at The NAM

NY Fed: Service Sector Activity ‘Declined Modestly’ in September

After holding steady last month, business activity declined in the New York–Northern New Jersey region, according to the September Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The headline business activity index fell nine points to -8.7. T

  • The business climate index dropped ten points to -35.9, with only 13 percent of respondents reporting a favorable business climate and nearly half reporting an unfavorable climate.
  • The employment index moved down seven points to -4.9, suggesting employment levels declined slightly.
  • The wages index was little changed at 30.3, indicating that wage growth continued at about the same pace as in recent months.
  • The prices paid index held steady at 69.0, signaling that input prices continued to increase significantly, and the prices received index rose six points to 33.7, a sign that selling price increases remained elevated and picked up compared to last month.
  • The capital spending index came in at -2.2, pointing to slightly lower capital spending.
  • The index for future business activity fell four points to 5.0, suggesting that firms expect only modest growth in activity over the next six months.

Read more at The NY Fed

How Tariffs, Soaring Fuel Costs And Higher Interest Rates Are Squeezing American Companies

For American companies large and small, the combination of tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump’s trade policies, surging fuel prices from the Iran war and, now, rising interest rates is forcing executives to make tough choices. It’s a three-way squeeze for businesses across manufacturing, transportation and retail: Tariffs are making raw materials and goods more expensive. Higher fuel prices are pushing up the cost of making and moving them. And rising rates are making it more expensive to finance the inventory and equipment businesses need to keep running

While few sectors are completely insulated from these pressures, middle-market manufacturers are caught in a particularly tight vise. Rising steel and fuel costs are forcing them to pass at least some of those expenses on through higher prices, helping feed the stubborn inflation of the past few years. But to wrangle inflation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years and signaled another hike is possible this year. That makes it more expensive for businesses to finance inventory and borrow for growth at the same time that higher input costs and record prices for diesel, which is used for trucking, squeeze margins.

Read more at CNBC

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

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Family Income Rose And Poverty Fell In 2025

The average American family made more money last year than in 2024, while the number of people living in poverty fell slightly, according to a new report from the Census Bureau. The annual snapshot of last year's family income, poverty and health coverage comes as Americans are currently wrestling with stubborn inflation that's been rekindled by the war with Iran. Prices have been climbing faster than average wages for the last five months.

In 2025, by contrast, families saw real improvements in their purchasing power. The average family's income rose 2.6% last year, after adjusting for inflation, to $87,460. Families at the top of the income ladder saw bigger gains than those at the bottom. The share of people living in poverty declined last year to 10.2% from 10.7% in 2024. In 2025, 34.5 million people in the country fell below the poverty line, compared to 36 million the previous year.A supplemental measure of poverty, which accounts for taxes, government benefits and additional expenses showed somewhat higher levels of poverty — 13.1%. This figure was little changed from 2024.

Read more at NPR

The FAA Is Rolling Out An AI System To Manage U.S. Air Traffic Before Flights Depart

The Federal Aviation Administration is preparing to launch an AI-powered air traffic management tool in the Washington, D.C., area as soon as Monday, ahead of a broader nationwide rollout. The software, known as SMART — Strategic Management of Airspace, Routes, and Trajectories — aims to give the FAA and airlines better tools for trimming delays and cancellations and rerouting flights when disruptions throw air traffic into disarray. To do so, it ingests airline schedules together with variables such as weather conditions, runway capacity, and operational constraints, using that data to anticipate traffic patterns and surface potential conflicts in advance.

Air Space Intelligence secured the contract to build SMART and a companion system — a deal valued at $875 million spread over 12 years, awarded earlier this year. Once it reaches full nationwide deployment, the platform is envisioned as the overarching intelligence hub coordinating the country's air traffic control infrastructure. The rollout is part of a broader modernization effort. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has asked Congress for $6 billion to $10 billion to integrate AI into the air traffic control system, on top of $12.5 billion already allocated for wider infrastructure upgrades. Duffy has said the AI tools would help controllers resolve potential delays before they occur — flagging conflicts as far as 45 days out and suggesting small adjustments to individual flights.

Read more at Quartz

Trump - Xi Summit

November Election Headlines

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Heart Disease Can Start as Early as Your 20s

A growing body of research suggests that the process leading to heart attacks and strokes often begins decades before anyone would be considered at significant risk. A new study published in the New England Journal of Medicine found evidence of artery-clogging plaque even among some adults in their 20s. The finding adds to an unsettling consensus in cardiovascular research: heart disease may be less a condition that develops in middle age than a lifelong process that becomes visible later.

“We’ve thought of this as a middle-aged person’s issue, and that’s been a problem,” says Amit Khera, director of preventive cardiology at UT Southwestern Medical Center. That doesn’t mean healthy young adults should worry about imminent heart attacks, he says. What it does mean is that the timeline many people use to think about prevention may not match the timeline their arteries are following. New U.S. cholesterol guidelines released this year reflect this shift in thinking. Rather than focusing only on who is at highest short-term risk, they emphasize reducing years of exposure to unhealthy cholesterol levels, particularly among adults ages 18 to 39.

Read more at National Geographic

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Annual Luncheon and Expo - Friday November 20, 11:00 AM - 2:00 PM. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

The Orange County Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ): Duty Elimination, Reduction Deferral - Presented by Steve Gross, Orange County Economic Development

C3POA - Key Perpectives on your CMMC Compiance Journey - Presented by Nick DeLena, PKF O'Connor Davies.

CMMC for Legacy Equipment: Securing Specialized Assets with Zero Trust Micro-Enclaves - Presented by Marc Hoover, Trout Software.

See previous episodes here!

Training

AI Without the Hype: A Practical Roadmap for Growing Businesses In Person at Marist University.  September 24, 8:30 -11:00 AM. (Manufacturers Only Please)

Human Resources Management Issues, (A CML Course) October 7, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Lean Six Sigma Yellow Belt, In Person at DCC Fishkill.  October 13, 14, and 15. 8:30 - 4:30.

Effective Business Communication, (A CML Course) October 21, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Making a Profit in Manufacturing, (A CML Course) October 28, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Lean Overview and Simulation, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Risk Management: Enviroment Health and Safety, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Strategies for Motivation, Coaching and Managing Difficult People, (A CML Course) November 19, 8:30 - 4:30. SUNY Orange Newburgh.

Trade Wars

Refineries Are Now the Main Chokepoint for Global Energy Supplies. US and Other Nations Consider Export Ban.

Diesel prices are soaring—they eclipsed $6 a gallon in the U.S. for the first time this month and have kept climbing, hitting $6.45 on Friday. The surge has rattled governments and markets around the world that rely on diesel as the workhorse of their industry, transportation and agriculture. Shortages have appeared at gas stations in rural Brazil, in Libya and some African nations that can’t afford to import the fuel.

Persian Gulf states and Russia have invested tens of billions of dollars in refineries over the past decade to grab a bigger share of the global diesel market. Now, war in both regions has sent exports plunging, squeezing supplies of a fuel that powers much of the global economy. The Iran and Ukraine wars left the U.S. as the producer of last resort for diesel and other refined products, but momentum is now growing to ban exports of the fuel to lower prices ahead of the midterm elections. Rep. Tim Burchett (R., Tenn.) introduced a bill this past week to ban exports. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.), said he was open to the idea.

Read more at The WSJ  

VW Slashes Profit Outlook After China Sales Slump and $6.9 Billion Writedown

Volkswagen AG slashed its outlook on Friday as it flagged €10 billion ($11.5 billion) in one-off items related to its stake in luxury sports car maker Porsche AG, provisions for job cuts and a weak Chinese market. The news raises questions over Volkswagen's Porsche brand, which has been hardest hit by U.S. tariffs and collapsing demand for foreign luxury brands in China, creating a perfect storm for the division that posted a profit margin of just 1.1% last year.

The profit warning deepens a crisis at Volkswagen, which earlier this month managed to agree far-reaching cuts with unions in the face of fierce competition from Asian rivals and stagnant demand in Europe. Volkswagen, which also includes the Audi, Skoda and Seat brands among others, now expects a profit margin of 1% at the most in 2026, having previously guided for 4% to 5.5%.

Read more at The Detroit News

IBM Passes Initial Hurdle In Securing IDA Financial Benefits For Poughkeepsie Quantum Computing Facility

The Dutchess County Industrial Development Agency Wednesday approved the preliminary resolution for IBM to secure a payment-in-lieu-of-taxes plan and sales tax exemption for the project on South Road. Company consultant Eric Stavriotis said this project would be what he called the first of the first. “Our view is there are centers of excellence nationally that have emerged around quantum, where the specialization and technology are coming together,” he said. “This project would really position the Mid-Hudson Valley, and Poughkeepsie specifically, as the center of gravity for manufacturing quantum computers in the US.”

If the incentives are approved, company officials said they could break ground in November. When operational, IBM, which currently has some 2,300 employees on the campus, could see another 200 to 300 more, with starting salaries ranging from $68,000 to $83,000 for technicians. The next step in the incentive process is for the IDA to conduct a public hearing, followed by a final vote of approval.

Read more at Mid-Hudson News

NIST Awards Over $30M To 12 Manufacturing Extension Partnership Sites

The National Institute of Standards and Technology has awarded over $30 million to 12 Manufacturing Extension Partnership centers in 11 states and Puerto Rico, the Commerce Department’s agency announced last week. The funds are part of a competition to support the MEP sites to help small- and medium-sized businesses accelerate adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies, including artificial intelligence, robotics, automation and additive manufacturing.

The 12 winners must secure nonfederal matching funds or cost share of at least 50%. Under federal law, the government cannot provide more than 50% of capital and yearly funds to support an MEP center. The agency called for the site awardees to develop metrics for technology adoption that will be shared across the MEP network. The winners will also actively engage with flagship manufacturers in “priority sectors” that each site has identified.

Read more, see the list of recipients at Manfuacturing Dive

Volvo Recruits a Top VW Executive to Steer Its Turnaround

Volvo Cars named Klaus Zellmer as its next chief executive, poaching one of Volkswagen Group’s top-performing brand chiefs to launch a raft of new vehicles and revive growth in a ferociously competitive market. Zellmer, the current CEO of VW’s Škoda, will succeed Håkan Samuelsson, a 75-year-old veteran of Volvo, no later than October 2027. Zellmer spent more than two decades at Porsche, now also part of the VW Group, culminating in a stint leading the sports-car brand’s North American business through a period of strong growth in the 2010s.

On Thursday, Samuelsson and his team unveiled a plan to double Volvo’s market share by introducing 13 new models, seven in Western markets and six in China, while saving costs by sharing more parts with Geely. Under Zellmer, Škoda has become a bright spot in the otherwise gloomy financial picture at VW. The Czech brand, bought in stages after the fall of the Berlin Wall, has grown to become Europe’s third-largest car business by offering VW technology at lower prices than the VW brand itself.

Read more at The WSJ  

GM to Produce Patriot Missile Parts as U.S. Faces Critical Arms Shortage

General Motors has entered the missile business. The automaker is supplying parts for Lockheed Martin’s LMT -0.46%decrease; red down pointing triangle Patriot missiles, the defense contractor said Thursday—a potential lift to America’s munitions supplies depleted by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Lockheed, which faces Pentagon demands to sharply boost munitions production, said GM delivered an initial batch of missile-housing components for PAC-3 MSE interceptors in August. Lockheed didn’t disclose details about the order size or scope of future work.

Pentagon officials are working to enlist other manufacturers, including automakers and their suppliers, to team with weapons makers to replenish military supplies. GM and Lockheed were in talks about the automaker producing munitions parts, The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year.GM is working to expand its defense business, a small but growing unit. Chief Executive Mary Barra touted the division this summer in a call with analysts, saying she anticipated $700 million in defense revenue this year and double-digit margins. GM and other automakers are seeking new revenue streams in a tough global auto market. More so than its rivals, GM has been open to defense work.

Read at The WSJ

GE Launches $11.75B Vertical Integration Plan

GE Aerospace agreed to purchase investment casting group Consolidated Precision Products in a $11.75-billion transaction, a move that marks a significant integration of its manufacturing network for aerospace propulsion systems. The seller is a team of private-equity groups, Warburg Pincus and Berkshire Partners, which assembled the portfolio in stages over the past 15 years. Cleveland-based CPP manufactures highly engineered castings and sub-assemblies primarily for commercial aerospace and defense markets, producing not only investment cast parts but also sand castings, in aluminum, magnesium, superalloys, and steel.

Investment casting is a critical, multi-step process for manufacturing highly engineered, precision components in hard-to-machine alloys, is in high demand to support the long-term supply programs of commercial aircraft builders, as well as a rising volume of defense manufacturing programs, and rapid expansion of electrical and natural gas power systems. The process involves expertise in design and production, and the manufacturing technologies required represent a hurdle for expansion and new production capacity. GE Aerospace is active now as an investment casting producer for some components, including superalloy turbine blades, fuel nozzles, and structural castings, but it also relies on a network of external foundry partners.

Read more at Foundry Magazine

Huawei Unveils New Chip Technologies As Chinese Firm Steps Up The AI Race With Nvidia

Chinese technology giant Huawei launched new chip technologies in a challenge to global leaders such as Nvidia that highlights the narrowing gap between China and the U.S. in artificial intelligence. Huawei’s announcement Thursday at its annual key conference in Shanghai came just days before an expected meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington on Sept. 24. China has rapidly pursued technological self-reliance, including in chips, as U.S.-led restrictions barred it from accessing some of the world’s most advanced AI chips and cutting-edge chipmaking machines.

Huawei introduced the Atlas 960 SuperPoD computing cluster at the event, a faster successor to the model it launched only months ago with improvements in AI training and “inference,” referring to the process when a trained AI makes predictions or decisions. Huawei also plans to launch the Ascend 970 and 980 chip series in 2028 and 2029, with expectations of significant improvements in computing power.

Read more at NBC News

Army Awards $2.2B for Nuclear Microreactors at Military Sites

Earlier this month the U.S. Army announced that it plans to add nuclear microreactors at five military bases from New York to Texas as a reliable source of energy independent of the commercial electric grid. The announcement comes as the Trump administration pushes hard to develop the next generation of nuclear power, including billions in loans for large nuclear reactors to meet skyrocketing power demand from data centers and a pilot program to boost advanced reactor designs and projects for military and civilian use. No nuclear microreactors are supplying power to the commercial electric grid in the United States today.

Five companies selected by the Army will be awarded up to $2.2 billion in total over five years to own, construct and operate the microreactors, if they hit set milestones along the way for their performance. The Army expects that more than 20 nuclear microreactors will be built and operated. Army and industry officials say microreactors offer a resilient power source for critical infrastructure at military installations in case the grid fails. Reactors can run for years without refueling.

Read more at The NAM

Daily Market Update Sept 18, 2026

The October ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.01 at $2.92. The October ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.29 at $104.24.  

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“We all have our time machines, don't we. Those that take us back are memories...And those that carry us forward, are dreams.”

H.G. Wells - English Novelist who was born on this day in 1866.

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