Member Briefing September 17, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Empire State Manufacturing Survey – ‘Modest’ Activity Increase in September

After growing strongly last month, business activity increased modestly in New York State in September, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The general business conditions index fell thirteen points but remained positive at 7.6.

  • The new orders index came in at 2.0, and the shipments index fell to -3.2, pointing to a small increase in orders and a slight decrease in shipments.
  • The unfilled orders index came in at 5.9, and the delivery times index printed at 18.8, suggesting significantly longer delivery times. Inventories increased.
  • The supply availability index came in at -11.9, pointing to worsening supply availability.
  • The index for number of employees was little changed at 10.6, and the average workweek index rose ten points to 17.0, its highest level in nearly five years, suggesting solid growth in employment levels and hours worked.
  • The prices paid index rose five points to 63.1, edging above its recent four-year high reached in May 2026, and the prices received index rose five points to 28.1, pointing to a pickup in input price and selling price increases.
  • New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and employment is expected to grow significantly.
  • Capital spending plans remained modest.

Read more at The NY Fed

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Decreased 1.1 Points In August

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dipped in August to 98.7, just 1.1 points below July’s highest level since August 2025, but remaining above the 52-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index fell 2 points to 89, remaining above the historical average of 68. “While expectations for the overall economy dimmed, Main Street owners remain largely positive in the health of their own businesses,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. Key Findings:

  • Reports of “labor quality or availability” and “labor costs” as owners’ single most important problem eased in August, with “labor costs” dropping to its lowest level since March 2021. However, labor quality or availability in particular remains far above its long-term average.
  • Expectations for better business conditions deteriorated 5 points to a net 10% (seasonally adjusted) but remain above the average of net 4%.
  • Reports of inflation as the single most important problem increased 2 points in August to 16%, now tying with taxes as the second top small business issue.
  • The net percent of owners expecting easier credit conditions rose 2 points from July to a seasonally adjusted net negative 2%, the highest level since December 2024.
  • Sixty-two percent of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions affected their business to some extent, down 1 point from July.

Read more at The NFIB

US Diesel Prices Top $6 A Gallon Amid Oil Market Tensions

The average national price of diesel in the United States has reached 6.06 dollars per gallon, or 3.78 liters, an unprecedented level according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). The 6-dollar threshold had never been crossed in the organization's average price records. Geopolitical tensions are affecting multiple segments of the global oil sector, as illustrated by recent measures taken by Argentina, which has toughened sanctions on offshore oil projects near the Falkland Islands. The fuel remains central to road freight, agriculture, construction sites and part of America's logistics chains.

Diesel, or middle distillate, depends on the price of crude oil, available refining capacity, and competition among industrial, logistics and agricultural uses. In an already tight market, a reduction in exports of refined products can pass through to final prices more quickly than an isolated shift in crude production. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has warned that the situation for refined products is unlikely to ease quickly. In its latest short-term outlook published in September 2026, it forecasts that U.S. distillate stocks, a category that generally includes diesel, will fall below 100 million barrels in September and will remain below the low end of the 2021-2025 range through the end of 2026 and for much of 2027.

Read more at Energy News

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

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Federal Reserve Raises Rates for First Time in Three Years

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates Wednesday for the first time in three years. The increase, approved unanimously, will raise the benchmark federal-funds rate range by a quarter point to between 3.75% and 4%. The vast majority of officials penciled in one more hike this year in interest-rate projections released after their meeting. “Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the committee’s 2% goal,” the rate-setting committee said in its policy statement. It cited elevated uncertainty due in part from geopolitics and omitted previous language that had attributed elevated inflation partly to supply shocks.

The decision leaves open what exactly will follow. The Fed rarely makes just one adjustment after it concludes a turn toward raising or lowering rates is warranted, because a quarter-point higher or lower doesn’t do much on its own to change borrowing conditions. In new projections, 16 out of 18 meeting participants penciled in at least one more increase this year, which would take rates to just above 4%. Only four penciled in rates ending next year below that level.

Read more at CNBC

What An AI Slowdown Would Mean

The increasingly urgent pleas from leading tech executives to slow the advance of artificial intelligence are confronting one daunting obstacle: It’s not entirely clear how they should do that. Would restraining the exponentially growing power and dangers of the top AI models require an agreement between the U.S. and China, the two nations battling for supremacy in the technology? Would Congress have to change U.S. antitrust law, so that archivals like Anthropic and OpenAI could jointly agree to hold back progress without fearing trouble in court? Or would Silicon Valley companies just need to put the fate of humanity over profits?

One threshold objection to slowing American AI technology involves Beijing — and the fear that Chinese companies could zoom ahead to claim an insurmountable lead in artificial intelligence while U.S. companies hobble themselves. Trump’s scheduled Sept. 24 meeting in Washington with Chinese President Xi Jinping could provide an opportunity for the two nations to talk about cooperating in an AI slowdown. A slowdown would not necessarily mean a moratorium on AI research or a government mandate forcing companies to throttle computing power. It could instead focus on the development and release of the most capable models, especially those that can conduct cyberattacks, assist in creating bioweapons or help automate AI advancement itself.

Read more at Politico

Governor Hochul Sending Energy Rebate Checks to 8.2 Million New York Households Starting Next Week

At an event in Monroe County, Hochul announced that the state will be sending checks of up to $200 to eligible taxpayers between now and December under the “POWER” program authorized in the budget this year. Totaling $1 billion, checks for 8.2 million New Yorkers are going out by mail automatically to those who filed a 2024 state income tax return. Joint filers making under $150,000 will get $200, joint filers making between $150,000 and $300,000 will get $150, and single filers making less than $150,000 will get $100.

While Gov. Kathy Hochul has been promoting rebates and discounts, Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman has argued the relief doesn't go far enough. “Our utility rates are 70% higher – 70% higher! – than the national average and what is she giving us? Peanuts!” he said at a near-simultaneous news conference in Howard Beach. The state’s residential electricity costs now stand at the third-highest in the nation, trailing only Hawaii and California.

Read more at NY State of Politics

November Election Headlines

More Policy and Politics Headlines

The New Status Symbol: Your Sleep Score… and Your Baby’s?

If you’ve tuned into the U.S. Open, you’ve saw Oura branding front-and-center. The wearable-ring device maker struck up a five-year partnership with the U.S. Tennis Association as well as brand-ambassador deals with star players Taylor Fritz and Coco Gauff. The company, which has been around for more than a decade, is expected to IPO soon. In recent years, our collective obsession with sleep optimization has seemingly skyrocketed. Consumers share tips on how to “sleepmaxx” on social media, recommending devices, from wearables to smart mattresses and alarm clocks, along with DIY remedies like “sleepy girl mocktail” concoctions containing magnesium.

It’s not just wearable trackers like Oura, Fitbit, Whoop and Ultrahuman that people are turning to for graded sleep. There’s smart devices such as Eight Sleep, known for its mattress sleep pod system, which delivers slumberers with a “sleep fitness” score. This week, I came across an influencer’s Instagram story sharing her baby’s 100 sleep score via Nanit, the smart baby-monitor system. At the end of last year, the company introduced the sleep metric, which it says is based on sleep duration, timing, continuity and how many times the parent attended to the baby throughout the night.

Read more at The WSJ

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Annual Luncheon and Expo - Friday November 20, 11:00 AM - 2:00 PM. The Grandview, Poughkeepsie.

Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

The Orange County Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ): Duty Elimination, Reduction Deferral - Presented by Steve Gross, Orange County Economic Development

C3POA - Key Perpectives on your CMMC Compiance Journey - Presented by Nick DeLena, PKF O'Connor Davies.

CMMC for Legacy Equipment: Securing Specialized Assets with Zero Trust Micro-Enclaves - Presented by Marc Hoover, Trout Software.

See previous episodes here!

Training

Certificate in Manufacturing Leadership (CML), In Person at Orange Community College , Newburgh.  Sept 16 - Dec 9. 8:30 - 4:30. (7 Courses)

AI Without the Hype: A Practical Roadmap for Growing Businesses In Person at Marist University.  September 24, 8:30 -11:00 AM. (Manufacturers Only Please)

Lean Six Sigma Yellow Belt, In Person at DCC Fishkill.  October 13, 14, and 15. 8:30 - 4:30.

Trade Wars

Rare Earth Production in the US Shows Signs of Life

Modern society is completely dependent on 17 obscure metallic elements with special magnetic, heat-resistant and phosphorescent properties. While quite abundant in the Earth’s crust, these minerals are difficult to find in sufficient concentrations to mine economically, and just as hard to process and refine—hence, their label “rare earths.” China currently commands this space, producing roughly 70% of the global rare earth output and controlling about 90% of rare earth refining capacity.

In 2010, however, China overplayed its hand. The government placed significant restrictions on export quotas of rare earths, which it hoped would force overseas tech firms to relocate their manufacturing facilities to China. Instead, it led the United States and other countries to develop strategies to become less reliant on China for these minerals. Which brings us to today. While the shoe is far from being on the other foot, the United States response has been far more strategic, providing hope to manufacturers and the U.S. military and aerospace industry that China will not be able to undermine their operations down the road.

Read more at IndustryWeek  

US Machine Tool Orders Still Rising

U.S. machine shops and other manufacturers’ demand for machine tools remained historically strong during July 2026, and though the $605.8 million worth of new orders recorded for the month is a drop of -8.0% from June, it is 55.2% higher than the new-order total for July 2025. According to AMT - the Assn. for Manufacturing Technology, which tracks machine tool orders, the July result represents only the second time in the 28-year history of the USMTO series “that orders have exceeded half a billion dollars for five consecutive months.” Through seven months of activity, 2026 manufacturing technology orders total $4.03 billion, 37.1% higher than January-July 2025.

AMT also noted another continuing trend in the USMTO series: the rising value of individual machines. The YTD results show that the value of orders grew by more than 33.0%, but the number of units ordered through July is only 13.0% versus the same January-July period from last year. AMT also noted the improvement in demand from contract machine shops (“job shops”), whose orders have lagged other market sectors during the past year dropped just -1.3% from June to July, while machine unit orders increased more than 2%. According to the USMTO report summary, those changes in direction indicate “a growing need for additional manufacturing capacity” by the job shops.

Read more at American Machinist

Ford Starting $1B Painting Update

Ford Motor Co. announced a new capital investment program for its Kentucky Truck Plant in Louisville, a painting operation it estimated as a $1-billion project. The project will begin later this year, to replace the current paint operations there. The new painting operation will include dry-booth painting systems, which eliminate use of water and chemicals in the process, thereby reducing the environmental impact of the operation. “Upgraded technology in the new paint shop will deliver cleaner and more efficient paint quality, supporting continued production excellence with improved efficiency and advanced environmental sustainability,” according to Ford’s announcement.

It will install three wet painting and curing processes (eliminating extra drying booths), optimized ovens with minimal airflow and direct-drive blowers, high-efficiency Regenerative Thermal Oxidizers (RTOs), and volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrators. Ford also expects energy savings by adopting new air-compressor and dryer technologies. The new painting process also will use pretreatment steps in place of phosphate washing, which is seen as improving corrosion protection for vehicles. According to Ford, the new painting process will optimize workflow and maximize production throughput for heavy-duty commercial vehicles, and higher-quality finishes on luxury SUVs.

Read more at American Machinist

Amazon Increases Minimum Starting Pay, Adds New Discount For Employees

Amazon is once again raising wages for some of its workers and giving all of its U.S. employees a grocery discount. The minimum starting pay for full-time, core operations employees will now be $20 an hour, an increase of $1 an hour for qualifying workers, according to Amazon. The move bumps the company’s average hourly wage to almost $24 an hour. Amazon also announced Wednesday that, starting Oct. 1, its U.S. employees can get 10% off groceries they order online through Amazon and Whole Foods, and 20% when shopping in-store at Whole Foods.

There are some stipulations. The company notes that, through its website, the 10% discount applies to “eligible fresh groceries, pantry staples, and everyday essentials sold and shipped by Amazon.” Through the Whole Foods website, the 10% discount is for “eligible items ordered for delivery, including catering.” Within the store itself, the 20% discount applies to everything except gift cards and alcohol. The company on Wednesday also announced a new banking benefit, offering workers “a membership in First Tech Federal Credit Union that provides qualified employees and their families banking services they can keep for life.”

Read more at The Hill

B-52 Engine, Radar Upgrades Hit New Milestones

The Air Force’s program to re-engine the B-52H Stratofortress has moved from its technology maturation and risk reduction phase to engineering and manufacturing development, marking a new milestone in the sweeping overhaul of the Cold War-era bomber, a top official said Sept. 15. The B-52’s Radar Modernization Program, which will replace the bomber’s legacy analog AN/APQ-166 radar with an active electronically scanned array AN/APQ-188 radar, also entered low-rate initial production in August.

Under the reengining program, the B-52’s original TF33 engines, made by Pratt & Whitney, will be replaced with Rolls-Royce-made F130 engines.  The 1960s-era TF33 engines are approaching the end of their service lives and frequently break, Air Force officials have repeatedly said. Many spare parts for the engines are no longer made, forcing the service to find new sources for those parts, make them in-house, or even “cannibalize” them from retired or otherwise non-flying B-52s. The new Rolls-Royce engines are intended to solve those problems. Not only will they be new, with modernized subsystems like hydraulic pumps and generators that won’t need as much work, they will be derived from commercially used engines, making it much easier to find spare parts.

Read more at Defense Blog  

J&J Is in Talks to Sell Its Hips-and-Knees Business to Apollo for $20 Billion

Private-equity firm Apollo Global Management APO 0.84%increase; up pointing triangle is in talks to acquire Johnson & Johnson’s hips-and-knees parts business for around $20 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. J&J has been seeking to unload its DePuy Synthes orthopedics business. It is possible the talks with Apollo won’t result in a transaction, however, or another suitor could still emerge, the people cautioned.

The hips-and-knee unit, which also makes instruments to repair bones and joints, had been a linchpin of J&J’s medical-device business. The company acquired the bone-repair device maker Synthes in 2012 for $21 billion and combined it with its DePuy unit to create the “most innovative and comprehensive” orthopedics business, then-Chief Executive Bill Weldon said at the time. The move is part of a broader effort to shift J&J, of New Brunswick, N.J., toward higher-growth areas. In 2023, J&J split off its consumer-health division, called Kenvue, known for brands like Tylenol and Band-Aid. Kimberly-Clark has agreed to buy Kenvue for more than $40 billion.

Read at The WSJ

ASML Wins Over Top Chipmakers for New EUV Machines

Samsung and TSMC, the world’s two biggest chipmakers, have committed to using ASML’s High NA extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, as demand grows for more advanced chips. ASML’s EUV lithography machines are critical tools that are used to print circuit patterns onto silicon wafers during the chipmaking process. The High NA machines can print smaller and more intricate patterns. This tool can cost around $400 million. Samsung, one of the world’s biggest memory chipmakers, said it would use ASML’s machines to produce DRAM, a key type of memory, from 2028. Samsung said it would adopt the technology in 2030, adding that it would “extend the DRAM scaling roadmap” and make the process more efficient.

Samsung and TSMC join Intel as customers for ASML’s High NA machines. In July, ASML said that Intel is using the High NA EUV technology for advanced chip manufacturing. TSMC and Samsung will also join ASML in an industry initiative to advance next-generation 12-inch photmask technology, upgrading from the current 6-inch format. A key part of chip production, photomasks are effectively the stencils used to print the patterns on the wafers.

Read more at CNBC

SK Hynix reportedly in talks with Intel to build memory chips in US

South Korean memory chip giant SK Hynix is in discussions with Intel to manufacture RAM chips in the U.S. for the first time, Reuters reported, citing anonymous sources. The companies have reportedly discussed various options, one of which would have SK Hynix leasing space at Intel’s planned factory in Ohio to manufacture the chips. The chipmakers are also said to be considering a joint venture that could include cloud-service providers.

As a global chip shortage worsens, the Trump administration is seeking to expand production on American soil. The White House said in January that it could impose broader tariffs on semiconductor imports while offering tariff relief to companies investing in domestic manufacturing. SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won signaled support for U.S. chip production in July, saying the company should build factories in the U.S., if feasible, alongside those in South Korea’s Honam region. That month, the chipmaker listed its American depository receipts on the Nasdaq, broadening its access to American investors.

Read more at Tech Crunch

The United States Lend $1.9 Billion to NextEra for Iowa’s Duane Arnold Nuclear Plant

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and NextEra Energy, Inc. announced the financial close of a loan of up to $1.9 billion to support the restart of the Duane Arnold Energy Center in Iowa. The agreement, reached through the DOE's Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF), combines a conditional commitment with an actual financial close. The financing follows a series of federal commitments to the U.S. nuclear sector, after the United States funded twelve nuclear reactor and fuel projects earlier this year.

The 615-megawatt (MW) facility operated for more than four decades before ceasing operations in 2020. NextEra Energy announced last October plans to restart the plant no later than the first quarter of 2029, pending regulatory approvals. In June, the Iowa Utilities Commission issued a certificate authorizing the construction and operation of the site, a further milestone in the process. According to a study cited by NextEra Energy, the restart could generate more than $9 billion in economic benefits for Iowa over 25 years.

Read more at Energy Pro

Daily Market Update Sept 16, 2026

The October ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.04 at $2.96. The October ‘26 crude oil contract is down $1.93 at $103.90.  

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

The Preamble to the US Constitution which was signed by delegates at the Philadelphia Convention on this day in 1787.

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