Member Briefing February 2, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Groundhodg Day 2026: Punxsutawney Phil Sees His Shadow

Each year Punxsutawney Phil predicts whether there will be six more weeks of winter or early spring when he emerges from his home in Gobbler’s Knob on Groundhog Day.

It’s official! Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, meaning a prediction of six more weeks of winter.

This year marks the 140th time the event has occurred, according to the Pennsylvania Tourism Office.

U.S. Factory Orders Rebound Much More Than Expected In November

After reporting a notable decrease in new orders for U.S. manufactured goods in the previous month, the Commerce Department release a report on Thursday showing factory orders rebounded by much more than anticipated in the month of November. The Commerce Department said factory orders surged by 2.7 percent in November after tumbling by a revised 1.2 percent in October. Economists had expected factory orders to jump by 1.6 percent compared to the 1.3 percent slump originally reported for the previous month.

The bigger than expected rebound by factory orders came as durable goods orders spiked by 5.3 percent in November after falling by 2.1 percent in October. Commercial aircraft orders soared 97.6% in November. There were solid increases in orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components as well as fabricated metal products. Machinery orders rose ⁠0.3% while those for ⁠computers and ​electronic products were unchanged. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said orders for non-durable goods were virtually unchanged in November after dipping by 0.3 percent in October. The report also said shipments of manufactured goods edged down by 0.1 percent in November after inching up by 0.1 percent in October.

Read more at Reuters

PPI = 3.0 –December Jump Came from a Spike in Services PPI. Food & Energy Prices Fall

The Producer Price Index does not track import prices. It tracks prices that companies charge each other; so it does not directly track the costs of tariffs that companies pay on imported goods. PPI indirectly tracks how companies shuffle the tariffs around amongst each other, as companies have had trouble passing them on to consumers, and consumer-facing companies have therefore resisted their suppliers’ efforts to pass on the tariffs to them. And we can see some of that percolating through the PPI segments.

But the services PPI spiked, and services are not tariffed, and they dominate the US economy. The services PPI weighs 68% of the overall PPI. And this big increase is bad news for inflation. The goods PPI was unchanged for the month, on big drops in food and energy prices. But beyond food and energy, there were some substantial increases, and the “core” goods PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.42% (+5.2% annualized). Year-over-year, the PPI Final Demand rose by 3.0%, same increase as the month before, and has been in this range since July.

Read more at WolfStreet

U.S. Companies Are Still Slashing Jobs to Reverse Pandemic Hiring Boom

Big companies from Amazon.com to UPS are slashing jobs, looking to shrink their head counts after years of breakneck growth. Companies generously expanded their workforces during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 and doled out hefty raises, worried that moving too slowly might leave them with a shortage of skilled workers. Now, some companies say their hiring sprees went too far. Their biggest concerns today are bloat and runaway expenses. For months, corporate executives and labor economists have theorized about whether—and when—advances in artificial intelligence will lead to widespread layoffs. But that shoe has yet to meaningfully drop.

Instead, for the moment at least, the layoff story is centered on bloat. The sectors that recorded some of the top hiring surges in 2020 and 2021—tech and logistics—are now seeing the most layoffs. U.S.-based employers announced 1.2 million job cuts in 2025, the highest annual figure since 2020, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The tech sector led all private-sector industries with 154,445 job cuts, followed by warehousing with 95,317. CEOs insist behind the scenes that their companies are still too large and too bloated. In announcing staff cuts, many executives have said the layoffs would speed up operations and give people more autonomy.

Read more at The Financial Times

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Senate Passes $1.2T Government Funding Deal — But A Brief Shutdown Is Certain

The Senate passed a compromise spending package Friday, clearing a path for Congress to avert a lengthy government shutdown. The 71-29 vote came a day after Senate Democrats and President Donald Trump struck a deal to attach two weeks of Homeland Security funding to five spending bills that will fund the Pentagon, State Department and many other agencies until Sept. 30. The Senate’s vote won’t avert a partial shutdown that will start early Saturday morning since House lawmakers are out of town and not scheduled to return until Today.

During a private call with House Republicans Friday, Speaker Mike Johnson said the likeliest route to House passage would be bringing the package up under a fast-track process Monday evening. That would require a two-thirds majority — and a significant number of Democratic votes. The $1.2 trillion package could face challenges in the House, especially from conservative hard-liners who have said they would vote against any Senate changes to what the House already passed. Many House Democrats are also wary of stopgap funding for DHS, which would keep ICE and Border Patrol funded at current levels without immediate new restrictions.

Read more at Politico

Everything You Need To Know About Kevin Warsh, Trump’s Pick To Lead The Federal Reserve

Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s pick as the next Fed chair, is a central bank veteran, serving during the critical period of 2006 to 2011 that led up to and ultimately through the global financial crisis and the central bank’s efforts to stabilize the economy. Trump cited Warsh’s extensive background in announcing his appointment to the top Fed post Friday morning. “On top of everything else, he is ‘central casting,’ and he will never let you down,” Trump said. Warsh is a native of Latham NY and attended Shaker High School.

Warsh indeed is a Fed veteran, serving during the critical period of 2006 to 2011 that led up to and ultimately through the global financial crisis and the central bank’s efforts to stabilize the economy. Appointed by President George W. Bush, Warsh was one of the youngest members ever to serve on the board of governors. While at the Fed, Warsh played an important role in the design and implementation of emergency lending programs aimed at stabilizing credit markets. Warsh also played a key role in helping devise the myriad programs aimed at rescuing the economy. One of those programs, developed separately at the Treasury Department, became known as the Troubled Asset Relief Program, developed by Neel Kashkari, who is now the Minneapolis Fed president. However, Warsh emerged from the era as a Fed critic.

Read more at CNBC

 

Trump Picks Veteran Economist To Replace Fired Bureau Of Labor Statistics Chief

Donald Trump said on Friday he was nominating career economist Brett Matsumoto to be commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, months after he fired the previous chief on the heels of a weak jobs report. "I am confident that Brett has the expertise to QUICKLY fix the long history of issues at the BLS on behalf of the American People," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Matsumoto is a veteran economist at the BLS, who is on leave to work at the White House Council of Economic Advisers. He holds a doctorate in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Trump initially picked conservative economist E.J. Antoni to head the agency but withdrew the nomination. Matsumoto's nomination requires confirmation by the Senate. Former BLS commissioners have described Trump's attacks on the agency as unwarranted, saying they risked undermining trust in economic data and driving career economists out of their roles.

Read the Report at Reuters

More Policy and Politics Headlines

The U.S. Will Likely Lose Its Measles Elimination Status. Here's What That Means

The measles outbreak in South Carolina is showing little sign of slowing down. The state has confirmed 847 cases since the first case was reported in October, making the outbreak bigger than the one in Texas, which started just over a year ago. Dr. Linda Bell, South Carolina's state epidemiologist, points out that in Texas, measles cases grew over the course of seven months, while in South Carolina it has taken just 16 weeks to surpass the Texas case count.

This latest outbreak, as well as the speed at which it is spreading, is another test of the United States' ability to contain measles. It comes as the Trump administration has taken multiple steps to undermine overall confidence in vaccines. And it is happening as the U.S. is already in danger of losing its status as a country that has eliminated measles. That's a technical designation. It's given to countries that have gone a year without a continuous chain of transmission. For the U.S., the clock started in January 2025 with the Texas outbreak. Measles elimination status is granted — and taken away — by a special verification commission set up by the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO).

Read more at the NPR

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Advocacy Day - Tuesday February 24, 2026 -7:45 AM - 3:00 PM. The Fort Orange Club, State Capitol Building and Legislative Office Building, Albany.

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast - Thursday May 7, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. West Hills Country Club, Middletown.

Networks

Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, February 12, 2026, 8:30 - 10:30. Location TBD

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

Webinars and Seminars

Check back soon

Training

Making a Profit In Manufactuirng This course is designed to provide supervisors and team leaders with the financial acumen essential for maximizing profitability and reducing operational risks. January 20 & 21, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

Human Resource Management Issues This identifies and explains key legal issues that a manager may have to address in the workplace today. It helps current and future managers realize their responsibility to understand and enforce the employment laws that speak to these issues and minimize their chances of ending up in court. February 3 & 4, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

Effective Business Communication This course is designed to build core communication skills essential in professional settings. Topics covered include identifying appropriate communication channels, honing active listening skills, and mastering techniques like paraphrasing, summarizing, and clarifying for better interpersonal communication. February 17 & 18, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma Green Belt This program combines online coursework, with live Zoom sessions, to deliver a flexible and effective learning experience in Lean Six Sigma methodologies. Most Mondays March 2 - June 8 Via Zoom.

(Special Info session for those who are 'Green Belt curious' February 23rd)

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - March 9,10 & 11 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

Slump In Commodities Rattles Global Markets

Commodities markets slumped on Monday, led by deep losses in gold, silver, oil and industrial metals, as the choice of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair unleashed selling in risk assets that sent precious metals tumbling for a second session. Gold slid 5% to its lowest in more than two weeks, while silver fell more than 7%, following records hit by both metals last week. Oil , dropped nearly 5%, easing from multi-month highs, and London Metal Exchange copper fell 3%.The decline began on Friday, with the steepest one-day drop in spot gold since 1983, for a fall of more than 9%, while silver plunged 27% in its largest daily decline on record.

"The decision by markets to sell precious metals alongside U.S. equities suggests investors view Warsh as more hawkish," said Vivek Dhar, a commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). A hawkish Fed signals interest rates will stay higher for longer, supporting the dollar and raising the opportunity cost of gold and silver, dimming their appeal."A stronger U.S. dollar is also adding pressure on precious metals and other commodities, including oil and base metals," added Dhar, who is sticking with a gold price forecast of $6,000 in the fourth quarter, however.

Read more at Reuters

Big Three Memory Chip Manufacturers Policing Customers To Prevent Hoarding — Employee Says Industry Relationships ‘Matter In A Crunch’

The three major memory chip manufacturers — Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix — are reportedly becoming stricter when it comes to chip orders. The companies will conduct more stringent due diligence measures, including confirming the identity of the end-user, the quantity of the order, and even asking if the demand is real. These measures come as the memory chip supply remains tight, with AI chip makers still demanding huge amounts of HBM, taking up capacity that would otherwise be used for consumer memory. The current situation is particularly harsh for smaller companies that cannot afford to pay higher memory chip prices or lock in more expensive long-term contracts.

The AI infrastructure build-out is the primary reason for the global memory chip shortage, especially as memory chip makers prioritize large orders from hyperscalers and AI chip makers like Nvidia. This is especially true given that these AI tech giants aren’t price-sensitive, and they’re willing to pour nearly limitless amounts of cash into whatever hardware they need to stay ahead in the AI race. On the other hand, consumer electronics are hardest hit, with nearly all models taking the brunt of the supply crunch. This also goes beyond the usual memory modules, laptops, and GPUs that were the first to be affected by the shortage, as even smartphones, TVs, set-top boxes, home routers — practically every “smart” electronic device and even automobiles — will have difficulty sourcing memory going forward.

Read more at Tom’s Hardware

Caterpillar’s Q4 Sales Hit Record High And Build Momentum For 2026

Caterpillar reported record high sales and revenue of $19.1 billion during the fourth quarter, driven by strong demand for construction, mining and power equipment as tariff uncertainty affected manufacturing costs. The Irving, Texas-based company saw double-digit sales growth across its three primary segments during the period. Operating profit, however, was $2.7 billion, a 9% decline over last year. Higher tariff and restructuring costs were partially offset by turbine and engine orders from oil and gas and data center customers.

Caterpillar recently agreed to supply two-gigawatt generators for American Intelligence and Power Corp’s multibillion-dollar data center development in Mason County, West Virginia. Excluding this deal, the company’s order backlog reached a record high $51 billion at the end of the year. Construction and mining equipment sales also increased during the period over the previous year. However, segment profits fell short due to “unfavorable” tariff costs and prices. Caterpillar reported a nearly $1 billion impact on manufacturing and $282 million linked to higher restructuring costs.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Another Multi-Billion Dollar Order by Delta

Delta Air Lines made its second booking this month for new widebody aircraft as it works to update and expand its global route network. The value of its order for 16 Airbus A330-900s and 15 A350-900s was not announced but could be worth up to $6.5 billion based on list prices for those two models. The total combines new orders with 10 previously acquired options, and it adds 20 new options for future widebody aircraft orders.

Earlier in January Delta made an estimated $17-billion commitment to update its widebody fleet with up to 60 Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft. The airline has long preferred Airbus models. Currently its fleet includes over 500 jets of all models. It has a total of 232 narrow-body and 85 widebody aircraft on order with Boeing and Airbus for future deliveries. The latest investment in new Airbus jets also includes dozens of Rolls-Royce Trent 7000 and Trent XWB-84-EP engines to power the twin-engine aircraft.

Read more at American Machinist

GE Tests Hybrid Electric Engine Tech

GE Aerospace reported new progress in its development of hybrid electric aviation, with completion of successful demonstration of power transfer, extraction, and injection in a high-bypass commercial turbofan engine. The engine developer stated that its researchers had advanced their understanding of the hybrid electric engine’s system integration and controls. Through its joint venture CFM International, GE is engaged in several efforts to promote electric aircraft engine technologies.

The hybrid electric engine architecture that GE Aerospace is developing incorporates electric motor/generators in a gas turbine engine to supplement power during different phases of operation. The design optimizes engine performance, so the aircraft can operate with or without energy storage like batteries. The ground tests of a modified GE Passport engine were completed in 2025 at a GE Aerospace test operations center in Ohio, in a partnership with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The GE Passport is a smaller-scale version of the CFM International LEAP engine, which is the model used to power the Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo series jets, the largest-selling commercial aircraft in the world.

Read more at American Machinist

Dow to cut 4,500 jobs as part of $2B savings plan

Chemical manufacturer Dow announced on Thursday the launch of a cost-savings program to achieve a near-term improvement in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $2 billion. The strategy, dubbed “Transform to Outperform,” includes cutting its global workforce by 4,500 employees, according to a press release. Dow expects to spend approximately $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion to implement the plan, including up to $800 million on severance, COO Karen Carter said in a Jan. 29 earnings call.

The program also aims to “radically simplify how we operate, streamline our end-to-end processes, reset our cost structure and modernize how we serve our customers,” CFO Jeffrey Tate said in the call. The restructuring plan builds on a previously announced $1 billion savings plan that resulted in the layoff of approximately 1,500 workers. Dow later increased its savings goal to $6 billion in April 2025.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Toyota Is the Only Automaker To Air a Commercial During Super Bowl LX and This Is It!

Toyota is the only automaker that has confirmed its presence at Super Bowl LX this year. It would be the first time that all automakers skip the big night of the NFL final. So, all eyes are on Toyota’s "Superhero Belt" short film! The 30-second footage is a story about a grandfather taking his grandson on a ride in the first-generation Toyota RAV4, after safely fastening the belt of his child seat. The story comes full circle 30 years later, as the grown-up grandson takes his grandfather for a ride in the latest-generation Toyota RAV4, looking like he is returning the service by switching places. "Superhero belt!" says the one who is getting in the driver's seat now.

Toyota is the Official Automotive Partner of the NFL, so it couldn't have missed a chance to show a commercial at the Super Bowl LX, when the Seattle Seahawks will face the New England Patriots in a rematch of the Super Bowl XLIX. The Japanese automaker has one more spot to debut during the week leading up to the event. No other automaker has confirmed its presence at the NFL final. However, there is still time, as many announced they would air commercials at the event on the last homestretch. Kia is one of the car manufacturers that leaves it for the very last moment.

Read more at Auto Evolution

Castelion Invests $220 Million To Build Hypersonic Manufacturing Facility In New Mexico

Castelion has announced plans to build a hypersonic manufacturing campus in Sandoval County, New Mexico. The company, which develops hypersonic strike systems, is investing more than $220 million in the project and expects to create approximately 300 high-paying manufacturing jobs. The project, known as Project Ranger, will span 1,000 acres and include 21 buildings dedicated to hypersonic manufacturing operations. Once complete, the campus will support solid rocket motor manufacturing, static testing, and final assembly of hypersonic weapons.

The first building is scheduled to be completed in summer 2026, with all facilities ready for production by the end of 2026. The site is designed to enable high-cadence production to support domestic manufacturing capacity. The project represents more than $220 million in private investment and is expected to generate significant long-term economic impact for the region.

Read more at Plant Services

New Cars Are Increasingly Becoming A Luxury Amid K-Shaped Economy Concerns

American consumers are hitting a fork in the road when it comes to the U.S. automotive industry. Affluent buyers are purchasing new vehicles at increasingly higher prices, while lower-income ones are continuing to drive used models. This trend is a growing concern for auto executives and feeds into worries that U.S. consumers are facing a “K-shaped” economy, where the wealthy keep seeing gains while those who have lower incomes struggle.

Cox reports that the share of new-car buyers with incomes of less than $100,000 has dropped from 50% in 2020 to 37% last year, representing millions of lost sales. On the other end of the spectrum, the share of buyers with incomes of more than $200,000 has grown from 18% to 29% during that timeframe. The shift has occurred as MSRP, or manufacturer’s suggested retail price, hit an average of $51,000 in 2025, according to Cox, and as buyers are also dealing with higher insurance costs and inflation. New-car sales were at record levels of more than 17 million prior to 2020 but have experienced mixed results since, ending 2025 with 16.3 million sales. Brand-new vehicles have never been for the majority of U.S. consumers, but automakers have increasingly been pricing millions of Americans out, including by cutting entry-level vehicle lines such as small cars.

Read more at CNBC

Department of Energy Announces New Efforts To Boost Nuclear Fuel Supply Chain

The Department of Energy announced Wednesday an initiative aimed at building out the nation’s nuclear fuel supply chain as interest in the emissions-free power source grows. The DOE is asking states to express interest in hosting “Nuclear Lifecycle Innovation Campuses,” which would support activities across the nuclear fuel lifecycle – including recycling used fuel. Only about 5% of the value of the energy is used by a reactor, meaning the used fuel has the potential to be recycled. At present there is no commercial-scale uranium recycling in the U.S. The DOE said this would also redirect spent uranium from ultimately being sent to Yucca Mountain.

Ultimately, one of the proposed campuses could house the entire fuel cycle from enrichment all the way to recycling. The sites could also potentially have advanced reactors, power generation and co-located data centers, since it’s easier to do everything under one roof rather than having to transport fuel. Earlier this year, the DOE announced $2.7 billion in funding aimed at boosting the country’s enrichment facilities, including $900 million that was awarded to Centrus to expand production at its Piketon, Ohio, plant. The facility hasn’t yet reached commercial scale.

Read more at CNBC

Daily Market Update Jan 30, 2026

 

The Mar ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.13 at $4.05. The Mar ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.15 at $65.57.

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“Love loves to love love.”

James Joyce - Irish Novelist and Poet from his novel Ulysses. He was born on this day in 1882.

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