Member Briefing March 16, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

PCE = 2.8%: Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure Cooler Than Expected, But Does Not Include Iran War Impacts

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary forecasting tool for inflation, posted a seasonally adjusted gain of 0.3% for the month, putting the annual rate at 2.8%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.3% and 2.9%. Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, the core PCE inflation rose 0.4% in January and 3.1% on a 12-month basis. Fed officials focus more closely on the core reading as a better indication of longer-run trends. The core reading was 0.1 percentage point higher than December.

Personal income and spending in January both increased 0.4%, against respective estimates for 0.5% and 0.3%. The personal saving rate jumped half a percentage point to 4.5%.

Read more at Wells Fargo

Fourth-Quarter GDP Revised Down To Just 0.7% Growth

Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%. It also marked a considerable slowdown from the 4.4% gain in the prior period. For the full year, GDP posted a 2.1% increase, or one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the previous reading. In 2024, the economy rose at a 2.8% pace.

According to the BEA, the downward revision came due to adjustments in consumer and government spending and exports. A decline in imports, which technically subtract from GDP, also was less than the previous estimate. Consumer spending rose 2% for the quarter, following a 0.4 percentage point downward revision that represented a decline from the 3.5% increase in the third quarter. The largest contribution for the downward revision from services, specifically health care spending, according to the release.

Read more at CNBC

Durable Goods Orders Flat in January, Lower Than Expected

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $321.2 billion," the US Census Bureau reported on Friday. This print followed the 0.9% decrease (revised from -1.4%) recorded in December and came in much weaker than the market expectation for an increase of 1.2%.

  • Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.5 percent.
  • Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $1.0 billion or 0.9 percent to $113.3 billion," the press release read.
  • Shipments of manufactured durable goods in January, up four of the last five months, increased $2.0 billion or 0.6% to $314.2 billion. This followed a 1.2% December increase. Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, led the increase, $1.0 billion or 1.0% to $103.5 billion.
  • Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in January, up eighteen of the last nineteen months, increased $11.9 billion or 0.8% to $1,540.2 billion. This followed a 0.9% December increase. Transportation equipment, up ten of the last eleven months, led the increase, $9.8 billion or 1.0% to $971.1 billion.
  • Inventories of manufactured durable goods in January, up four consecutive months, increased $1.2 billion or 0.2% to $594.7 billion. This followed a 0.2% December increase. Transportation equipment, also up four consecutive months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.2% to $188.1 billion.

Read more at Floor Daily

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

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Fed Open Market Committee: Powell's Job Not Getting Any Easier

The Fed meets this week amid the Iran War and mixed economic data. Wells Fargo Economist offer this summary of what they are considering.

  • Stagflation risks have risen since the FOMC last met in January. Higher inflation and a weaker labor market is the FOMC's worst nightmare as it puts the dual mandate in tension. How will Chair Powell and company balance these risks?
  • FOMC to hold rates steady and maintain maximum flexibility. It goes without saying the conflict in Iran has a highly uncertain outlook, with oil prices gyrating wildly in response to the uncertainty. Looking past the geopolitical whirlwind, labor market conditions are still lukewarm and muddling along, and there has been no further progress toward 2% inflation over the inter-meeting period.
  • The Summary of Economic Prediction(SEP) will shift in a stagflationary direction: We expect the FOMC's inflation projections to be revised up, in part due to higher energy prices and in part due to recent strength in some core PCE components. The slightly stickier picture of inflation is likely to carry through to 2027 and keep the anticipated return to 2.0% two years away. GDP projections for 2026 are likely to be lower but still consistent with above-trend growth. Median estimates for the unemployment rate are likely to edge up as the low hire/low fire environment drags on.
  • "First, do no harm" keeps median dots unchanged. It would take two dots moving down to drop the 2026 median from 3.375% to 3.125% and three moving higher to shift the median projection up to 3.625%. With estimates for inflation drifting up but growth projections shifting down, we think the net impact will be no change to the median dots

Read more at Wells Fargo

N.Y. State Senate Republicans Want Hochul To Reconvene Climate Action Council To Review 2019 Climate Law

According to a letter to the governor dated Thursday, state Sen. Mario Mattera, the ranking member of the Senate Energy and Telecommunications Committee, and fellow Republican committee members Tom O’Mara and Mark Walczyk, want the Climate Action Council to issue a report after 30 days of reviewing the climate law, outlining policies that can be sent to the state Legislature before the end of session in June. The CLCPA mandates the state lower greenhouse gas emissions to 40% of 1990 levels by 2030, and by 85% by 2050. “The CLCPA needs to reflect an all-of-the-above approach when it comes to energy policy. Renewable energy definitions need to consider sources such as nuclear and renewable natural gas. Peaker plants that provide critical reliability needs cannot be shuttered when grid capacity is already stretched thin. The State should emphasize building as much generation as possible so that we can drive down energy prices and climate policy must reflect that,” the GOP letter reads.

Last week, state Sen. Liz Krueger, chair of the Senate Finance Committee, led 29 of 41 Democratic state senators in sending a letter to Hochul “categorically” rejecting climate law rollbacks, insisting the NYSERDA memo is flawed. The Assembly’s one-house budget proposal includes addressing utility rates in multiple ways, including proposing Protecting Our Wallets Energy Rebates, or POWER checks.

Read more NY State of Politics

U.S. And China Economic Chiefs Meet In Paris To Clear Path To Trump-Xi Summit

Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials launched a new round of talks in Paris on Sunday to iron out kinks in their trade truce ⁠and clear a smooth path for U.S. President Donald Trump’s trip to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of March. The discussions, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, are expected to focus on ​shifting U.S. tariffs, the flow of Chinese-produced rare earth minerals ​and magnets to U.S. buyers, American high-tech export controls and ​Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products.

U.S.-China trade analysts said that with little time to prepare and Washington’s ⁠attention focused on the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, prospects for a major trade breakthrough are limited, in Paris or at the Beijing summit. “Both sides, I think have a minimum goal of having a meeting, which sort of keeps things together and avoids a rupture and re-escalation of tensions,” said Scott Kennedy, a China economics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Trump may want to come away from Beijing with major Chinese commitments to order new Boeing aircraft and buy more U.S. liquefied natural ‌gas and soybeans, but to get that he may need to offer some concession on U.S. export controls, Kennedy added.

Read more at CNBC

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Psychology Is Increasingly A Female-Dominated Profession. That May Have Implications For Boys And Men.

For decades, the field of Freud and Jung tended to prioritize males and pathologize females. (Think hysterical women and refrigerator mothers). But the landscape of mental health, from research psychology to psychiatry, has since skewed, in some cases overwhelmingly, female. In the U.S., men now account for only 18% of social workers and 20% of psychologists, down from 38% and 68% in 1968 respectively, according to the American Institute of Boys and Men (AIBM), a research and advocacy organization founded in 2023.

Both male and female therapists stress the importance of providing positive, pro-social and professional alternatives to the often noxious influence of the manosphere. But while there’s plenty of talk about the problem with men, there is far less conversation around how to help them. That second problem is poised to get even worse. While a field increasingly dominated by women has become more open to studying issues like pregnancy, motherhood and female sexuality, it may also exert its own biases. Nonetheless, when it comes to a deliberate exploration of men’s inner lives—how they think, feel and express themselves—the male psyche is becoming less the norm than an aberration.

Read more at The WSJ

Upcoming Council Programs

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Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast and Workforce Developers Expo - Thursday May 7, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. West Hills Country Club, Middletown.

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Trade Wars

US Cutting Tool Demand Rising, but Uncertain

Consumption of cutting tools by U.S. machining operations rose 2.7% from December 2025 to January 2026, which also marked a 9.9% rise over the January 2025 result. It reconfirmed an upward trend for domestic manufacturing activity that developed during the closing months of 2024 and continued steadily through last year. Cutting tools are critical consumables for manufacturers supplying major industrial sectors, like automotive, aerospace, construction, defense, energy, and numerous others.

However, according Bret Tayne, president of cutting-tool manufacturer Everede Tool Co., noted that the January consumption data signals potential for continued volatility in cutting-tool demand. “Cutting tool shipments increased 2.7% from December 2025 to January 2026, which was the slowest growth between December and January since 2022. Recent events have raised economic uncertainty, complicating efforts to project levels of overall industrial production.”

Read more at American Machinist

The Iran Conflict May Be Overseas. The Cyber Disruption May Not Be.

Most cyber threats have a financial motive. There’s a negotiation. Life hopefully goes on. When the motive is disruption, there’s no negotiation. No path to resolution. Just the outage, the confusion and a leadership team scrambling to respond while customers are watching. Iranian-affiliated groups have run this playbook before and the current environment has elevated the risk it gets run again. This is a different kind of threat than most organizations have been planning for. Three Things That Actually Matter Right Now:

  • Know what’s exposed, including what you don’t directly control. Whether you run on-premise, in the cloud or rely on SaaS platforms for core operations, your attack surface includes every vendor and third party connected to your environment.
  • Know who has access to what. When access gets compromised, operations stop. Revenue stops. And the hardest part is that most leadership teams genuinely don’t know what’s out there until someone maps it.
  • Know if you can actually recover. Everyone has a plan. Not everyone has tested it. And remember, recovery isn’t just about your own systems. If a critical SaaS platform or third-party application goes down, whether because they were hit or you were hit through them, can your business keep running?

Read more at PKF O’Connor Davies

US Single-Family Housing Starts Fall In January, Permits Decline

U.S. single-family homebuilding fell in January amid harsh winter weather, and a strong rebound is unlikely, with permits for future construction declining. Single-family housing ​starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 2.8% to a ‌seasonally adjusted annual rate of 935,000 units in January, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Thursday. Data for December was revised lower to show starts rebounding to a rate of ​962,000 units instead of the previously estimated 981,000-unit rate. Though mortgage rates have declined this year, stimulating home purchasing, the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is pushing up ⁠oil prices and boosting U.S. Treasury yields. Mortgage rates track the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield.

Groundbreaking on ⁠new single-family housing projects tumbled 33.3% in the Northeast and fell 4.6% ​in the densely populated South. Starts rose in the Midwest and the West regions. ​Heavy snow and frigid temperatures slammed large parts of the country in January. Single-family starts dropped 6.5% year-on-year in January. Homebuilding has been hampered by tariffs on imported goods, including lumber and vanity ​cabinets, worker shortages amid an immigration crackdown and higher mortgage rate rates.

Read more at Reuters

Standard Lithium-Equinor Joint Venture Inks Lithium Offtake Deal With Trafigura

Standard Lithium said on Monday its joint venture with Norway's Equinor (EQNR.OL), opens new tab ​had signed its first binding offtake ‌agreement to supply lithium carbonate from its southwest Arkansas project to commodities trader ​Trafigura. The joint venture, Smackover Lithium, will ​supply Trafigura with 8,000 metric tons ⁠per year of battery-grade lithium ​carbonate over a 10-year period starting when ​commercial production begins.

The agreement marks a key milestone for the southwest Arkansas project as the ​partners seek to secure long-term ​customers and financing ahead of a final investment ‌decision ⁠and construction. Smackover Lithium is targeting about 22,500 metric tons of annual lithium carbonate production capacity in the project's first ​phase and ​plans ⁠to secure offtake agreements for around 80% of that output. The ​Trafigura agreement covers more than ​40% ⁠of that targeted volume.

Read more at Reuters

These Women Pursued A Skilled Trade — Here’s What They Told Us About Their Experience In A Male-Dominated World

Mounting evidence points to opportunities in the skilled trades. And yet, these jobs remain largely a man’s world. Despite higher salaries and increasingly valuable long-term employment prospects in the face of an artificial intelligence-driven white-collar jobs revolution, women remain significantly underrepresented in the skilled trades, research shows. They make up just a fraction of the workforce in industries such as automotive technology, diesel mechanics, plumbing and carpentry. For example, women represented 3.1% each of carpenters and plumbers and 3.5% of electricians employed in the U.S. in 2025, according to the most recent occupational data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Overall, younger workers are increasingly pursuing careers in the skilled trades — with good reason. A shortage of skilled tradespeople has led to more job openings and higher pay among these career-driven pathways. But even as experienced workers age out of the field, young men are more likely to fill those spots. Some women have forged ahead anyway. For women, especially, the demand for skilled-trade roles creates opportunities for employment growth and rising salaries, potentially narrowing the gender wage gap and strengthening their economic security. CNBC spoke to four women in skilled trades. Here’s what they said about their experiences in the field:

Read more at Forbes

Artemis II: NASA targets early April for Moon mission

NASA says it's on track to launch its Artemis II mission in early April, which will see astronauts fly around the Moon for the first time in more than 50 years. The rocket had been set to blast off in March, but after a helium leak was discovered it was returned to the Vehicle Assembly Building in Cape Canaveral, Florida, for repairs. NASA says it's confident the problem is fixed, and is planning to roll the rocket back out to the launchpad on 19 March, with the earliest possible launch date of 1 April. Speaking at a press briefing, NASA leaders also emphasised the risks involved with the mission.

"I am comfortable and the agency is comfortable with targeting April 1 as our first opportunity, just keep in mind we still have work to go," said  Lori Glaze, acting associate administrator, Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate. "There are still things that need to be done within the Vehicle Assembly Building and out at the pad, and as always, we'll always be guided by what the hardware is telling us, and we will launch when we're ready." NASA is under pressure to launch the Artemis II mission. It has already been delayed by two years after problems were found with the heat shield on the first Artemis mission, which saw the Space Launch System and Orion capsule fly to the Moon without any people onboard. In December 2024, the space agency set a deadline to launch Artemis II before the end of April 2026.

Read more at BBC

Atlas Energy To Buy $840M In Power Assets From Caterpillar

Atlas Energy has inked a multiyear agreement to secure 1.4 gigawatts of incremental natural gas power generation assets from Caterpillar to meet surging electricity demand. Under the agreement, the Austin-based power systems and proppant supplier will invest $840 million to obtain large natural gas reciprocating generator sets, including Caterpillar’s CG260-16 and G3520 models used for behind the meter and bridge power applications. Deliveries are scheduled between 2027 and 2029. Annual price increases will be capped at 8% per year, according to the agreement. The deal is one of Caterpillar’s largest as the company continues to build out its power systems segment for data center and oil and gas customers. It also has an extension option if more orders are needed.

What used to be Caterpillar’s weakest segment has become its fastest-growing, powered by surging investments in data centers. In the fourth quarter, power system sales reached $9.4 billion, up 23% from the previous year and well above Caterpillar’s construction and mining segments. In November, company executives told investors they would rename the segment to Power & Energy to better reflect the shift in demand toward power generation and oil and gas solutions.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Honda Expects Up to $15.7 Billion Hit From EV Strategy Reassessment

Honda Motor expects to book up to $15.7 billion in expenses and losses related to the reassessment of its electric-vehicle strategy, and expects to swing to its first annual loss in decades as a result. Expenses and losses related to the re-evaluation could total as much as 2.500 trillion yen for the fiscal year ending March 31 and in the coming years, the Japanese automaker said last week, after its global rivals gave gloomy outlooks in recent months.

Honda said it has decided to cancel the launches and development of certain models in response to a slowdown in the North American EV market. The company also expects to record impairment losses on investments in China due to intensified competition. Honda on Thursday projected a net loss of between Y420 billion and Y690 billion for the fiscal year, down from its previous net profit forecast of Y300 billion. That would be the first annual loss since the company started reporting its consolidated results in 1977. It maintained its annual revenue forecast at Y21.100 trillion.

Read more at the WSJ

GE Vernova And Hitachi Explore Deployment Of BWRX-300 Small Modular Reactor In Southeast Asia

GE Vernova and Hitachi Ltd. have signed a memorandum of understanding to explore opportunities to deploy the BWRX-300 small modular reactor in Southeast Asia. The agreement was signed in Tokyo during the Indo-Pacific Energy Security Ministerial & Business Forum in the presence of U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum and Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryosei Akazawa. Under the agreement, the companies will collaborate through the GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy and Hitachi GE Vernova Nuclear Energy joint ventures to identify potential commercial opportunities for the BWRX-300 reactor design across Southeast Asian markets.

The BWRX-300 is a small modular reactor designed to provide approximately 300 megawatts of electricity, aimed at helping countries meet growing energy demand while supporting energy security and decarbonization goals. Governments across Southeast Asia have been evaluating nuclear power as part of broader strategies to diversify energy sources and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. The first reactor using the design is currently under construction at Ontario Power Generation’s Darlington site in Canada and is expected to be completed by the end of the decade, which would make it the first small modular reactor operating in the Western world.

Read more at Pulse 2.0

Daily Market Update March 13, 2026

The Apr ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.08 at $3.15. The Apr ‘26 crude oil contract is down $2.07 at $93.44.

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“If Men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary. In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and the next place, oblige it to control itself.”

James Madison - 4th US President and Founding Father who was born on this day in 1751.

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