Member Briefing February 5, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

U.S. Manufacturing Employment Is in Retreat, Tariffs Aren’t Helping

The manufacturing boom President Trump promised would usher in a golden age for America is going in reverse. After years of economic interventions by the Trump and Biden administrations, fewer Americans work in manufacturing than any point since the pandemic ended. Manufacturers shed workers in each of the eight months after Trump unveiled “Liberation Day” tariffs, according to federal figures, extending a contraction that has seen more than 200,000 roles disappear since 2023. An index of factory activity tracked by the Institute for Supply Management shrunk in 26 straight months through December, but showed a January uptick in new orders and production that surprised analysts. The Census Bureau estimates that manufacturing construction spending, which surged with Biden-era funding for chips and renewable energy, fell in each of Trump’s first nine months in office. In an industry where capital plans and construction timelines extend years into the future, turnarounds also don’t happen overnight.

In the long term, tariffs could achieve their desired effect of making some manufacturers more competitive with overseas producers. Economists believe lower interest rates and deregulation could also provide support. But in the shorter run, tariffs have boosted many companies’ costs on materials sourced abroad, pushing firms that buy foreign parts to raise prices or scramble for supplies.

Read more at The WSJ

UAW, Volkswagen reach tentative deal at Tennessee plant

Volkswagen and the United Auto Workers reached a tentative agreement on their first contract at a plant in Tennessee, nearly two years after workers voted in favor of joining the labor group, the union said Wednesday evening. The agreement provides workers with a 20% pay increase over the contract, as well as improvements in healthcare and job security, the union said. Workers at the plant voted 73% in favor of joining the union in April 2024, making the Chattanooga factory the first auto plant in the South to unionize via election since the 1940s and the first foreign-owned auto plant in the South to do so. The UAW narrowly lost votes at the same plant in 2014 and 2019.

"They’ve secured a life-changing first agreement,” said UAW President Shawn Fain in a statement. Fain has aimed to unionize auto plants across the nation from automakers including Toyota and. His organizing drive has slowed following the win at Volkswagen, with a loss at a Mercedes plant in Alabama.

Read more at Reuters

Private Payrolls Rose By Just 22,000 In January, Far Short Of Expectations, ADP Says

Private companies added just 22,000 positions for the month and the number would have been negative had it not been for a surge of 74,000 hires in the education and health services category according to a report Wednesday from payrolls processing firm ADP. The total was less than the downwardly revised 37,000 increase in December and below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 45,000. The report starts 2026 off on basically the same note where 2025 ended: A lackluster job market in a low-hire, low-fire environment that likely will do little to quell fears from Federal Reserve policymakers that more support may be needed.

  • Outside of the health care-related jobs, the primary driver behind employment growth last year, financial activities added 14,000 positions while construction rose by 9,000 and both the trade, transportation and utilities and the leisure and hospitality industries contributed 4,000.
  • Several sectors reported losses. Professional and business services tumbled 57,000, the other services category lost 13,000 and
  • Manufacturing was down 8,000.
  • From a size standpoint, companies employing between 50 and 499 workers added all the jobs, with small firms flat and large employers down 18,000. The totals don’t add up exactly because of rounding.
  • Wage gains were little changed from December, with those staying in their jobs seeing growth of 4.5%.
  • Economy watchers are once again turning to a patchwork of unofficial data as another federal spending impasse has suspended government figures.

Read more at CNBC

Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

Trump Administration Unveils Grand Plan, Including Price Floors For Countering China’s Control On Critical Minerals

The Trump administration on Wednesday pushed for a trade system involving price floors for minerals during a summit it held with representatives from multiple nations. Vice President J.D. Vance announced the price floor initiative at the Critical Minerals Ministerial meeting at the State Department. “This morning, the Trump administration is proposing a concrete mechanism to return the global critical minerals market to a healthier, more competitive state: a preferential trade zone for critical minerals protected from external disruptions through enforceable price floors,” Vance said.

The Trump administration has repeatedly sought to counter China’s dominance in the minerals sector, as Beijing plays a major role in both global mining and mineral refining. Earlier this week, President Trump also announced the creation of a mineral stockpile for U.S. companies. In January, he signed a proclamation seeking to negotiate using price floors for minerals and their projects. Vance’s announcement appeared to expand on that initiative. He said the U.S. would set reference prices for minerals. He also sought to incentivize countries to be part of this “trade zone,” saying “for those of you who join, we offer you a necessary foundation for private financing and secure access to the critical mineral supplies your nation would require in an emergency.” He indicated that some countries have signed onto the plan but did not specify which ones.

Read more at The Hill

Funding Bill Delivers PBM Reforms — a Win for Manufacturers

Following the passage of a bipartisan government funding bill that includes key health care affordability measures—including reforms to pharmacy benefit managers—National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons issued the following statement:

“Rising health care costs continue to be one of the top challenges facing manufacturers, especially small and medium-sized manufacturers. The NAM has long championed efforts to rein in PBMs, underregulated middlemen who drive up costs by dictating what Americans pay at the pharmacy counter. The reforms adopted by Congress today are an important step toward delivering long-overdue transparency and accountability to these powerful actors.

“As Congress and the Trump administration rightly continue to focus on health care affordability, biopharmaceutical manufacturers are already working to bring down costs and keep lifesaving health care accessible for Americans, including through direct-to-patient platforms that offer lower cost medications to patients who need them. Combined with the reforms to telehealth and expansion of the use of health savings accounts included in H.R. 1, lawmakers are demonstrating their commitment to lowering the cost of health care in the U.S.”

Read more at The NAM

This Year’s Super Bowl Ads Will Be Heavy On Stars, Light On Politics

It’s the biggest advertising weekend of the year: The Winter Olympics begin Wednesday, Feb. 4, and the Super Bowl LX is Sunday, Feb. 8 — both will air on NBC. It's a big marketing opportunity for brands that find themselves trying to sell products and services at a tricky time, both economically and politically.This year, Super Bowl commercials will be full of famous names: Kendall Jenner for Fanatics Sportsbook, Sabrina Carpenter for Pringles, Andy Samberg for Hellmann’s. And there’s a reason for that.

Traditionally, advertisers have settled on patriotism. But nothing’s really safe these days. “Taking a side and making a big stand about what you stand for is very, very difficult at this moment,” said Sean McBride, chief creative officer at Arnold, a global ad agency. “We don’t quite know what to do. And so I think it seems like people have settled on, OK, celebrity.” It’s why Tim Calkins, a marketing professor at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management, said we might see more traditional ads: A bit of a blunt, “Hey, we make this great thing, you should buy it. We will see advertisers by and large stay very close to the product,” Calkins said.

Read more at Marketplace

More Policy and Politics Headlines

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U.S. Flu Cases Are Rising Again

Flu levels are rising once again across the United States, with emergency department visits increasing among children over 5, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The situation is not nearly as bad as in December, when emergency rooms were flooded with sick patients. But doctors say that we are likely to see a second, smaller rise in cases in the weeks ahead, which tends to happen every year in late winter, and that the virus will continue to spread into the spring. This season, a new variant of influenza A has spread widely, in part because it is adept at evading immunity from vaccinations or previous infections. It has been particularly severe for young children, leading to more hospitalizations and emergency room visits than doctors would expect in a typical flu season.

Researchers had feared that this year’s flu shot would be ineffective against the new variant. While there is still a mismatch between the shot and that variant, emerging data shows that the flu vaccine does still provide significant protection against the worst outcomes from the flu. Beyond vaccination, experts recommend common sense precautions: Frequently wash your hands; disinfect objects that you touch a lot, like doorknobs and phones; and improve ventilation by running an air purifier or opening a window. Staying hydrated can also help keep your skin and the mucus membranes in your airways intact, Dr. Barron said. When dryness causes the inside of the nose to bleed, or the lips to crack, that gives the virus opportunities to enter and infect, she said.

Read more at the NYT

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Advocacy Day - Tuesday February 24, 2026 -7:45 AM - 3:00 PM. The Fort Orange Club, State Capitol Building and Legislative Office Building, Albany.

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast - Thursday May 7, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. West Hills Country Club, Middletown.

Networks

Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, February 12, 2026, 8:30 - 10:30. Location TBD

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

Webinars and Seminars

Check back soon

Training

Human Resource Management Issues This identifies and explains key legal issues that a manager may have to address in the workplace today. It helps current and future managers realize their responsibility to understand and enforce the employment laws that speak to these issues and minimize their chances of ending up in court. February 3 & 4, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

Effective Business Communication This course is designed to build core communication skills essential in professional settings. Topics covered include identifying appropriate communication channels, honing active listening skills, and mastering techniques like paraphrasing, summarizing, and clarifying for better interpersonal communication. February 17 & 18, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma Green Belt This program combines online coursework, with live Zoom sessions, to deliver a flexible and effective learning experience in Lean Six Sigma methodologies. Most Mondays March 2 - June 8 Via Zoom.

(Special Info session for those who are 'Green Belt curious' February 23rd)

FILLING FAST Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - March 9,10 & 11 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

Texas Instruments to Acquire Silicon Labs in Deal Valued at $7.5 Billion

Texas Instruments said Wednesday it has agreed to acquire wireless-technology company Silicon Labs in a deal with an enterprise value of about $7.5 billion, including cash and debt. The semiconductor company said it would buy Austin, Texas-based Silicon Labs—whose technology has a range of applications in homes, healthcare and industry—for $231 a share in cash.

“Silicon Labs’ leading embedded wireless connectivity portfolio enhances our technology and IP, enabling greater scale and allowing us to better serve our customers,” Texas Instruments Chief Executive Haviv Ilan said. “Texas Instruments’ industry-leading and internally owned technology and manufacturing is optimized for Silicon Labs’ portfolio, and will provide customers dependable supply worldwide.”

Read more at The WSJ

Automakers Back Trump Plan To Roll Back Fuel Economy Rules, But Seek Changes

Major automakers on Wednesday called for changes in the Trump administration's proposal to reform fuel ​economy standards, but said they back the plan to drastically ‌slash the efficiency requirements. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents General Motors, Toyota Motor, Volkswagen, Hyundai, ‌Ford and other automakers, backed the reduction in stringency proposed by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, but asked it to not eliminate credit trading to meet regulatory requirements and reconsider plans to reclassify more vehicles as cars.

NHTSA proposes to eliminate credit trading among automakers in 2028, and will end some credits for fuel-saving features. It would also reclassify many vehicles as cars instead ​of trucks, which impacts automakers since cars face more stringent standards ‌than trucks. The automakers called for continuing credits for air conditioning efficiency and other technologies. NHTSA is proposing to revise down the 2022 fuel economy standards and then proposing to hike them between 0.25% and 0.5% annually through 2031. In 2022, under Biden, NHTSA ⁠increased fuel efficiency by 8% annually for ​model years 2024-2025 and 10% for 2026.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

AMD 4th Quarter Earnings Disappoint

Chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices dropped 9% in early premarket trading Wednesday after its first-quarter forecast fell short of some analyst expectations. AMD reported revenue of $10.27 billion for the fourth quarter that topped LSEG consensus estimates of $9.67 billion on Tuesday. The company said it expects $9.8 billion in revenue for the first quarter, plus or minus $300 million, versus expectations of $9.38 billion. But some analysts had predicted the chipmaker would provide stronger guidance for the first-quarter amid an ongoing boom in spending for the processors needed to power artificial intelligence.

However, the semiconductor analyst Susquehanna’s Chris Rolland said, demand for AMD’s chips in data centers was still strong and the company was hinting at multi-gigawatt contracts to come in the future. The chipmaker inked a deal with OpenAI in October that could see the startup take a 10% stake in AMD. OpenAI will deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD’s Instinct graphics processing units over multiple years beginning with an initial 1-gigawatt rollout of chips in the second half of 2026, the companies said. Oracle also announced in October plans to deploy 50,000 of AMD’s AI chips beginning later this year.

Read more at CNBC

A Tale of Two Pharma Firms

Eli Lilly Profit Rises as Weight-Loss Drug Demand Surges

Eli Lilly reported higher fourth-quarter profit on the back of surging demand for its GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. The pharmaceutical company reported net income of $6.64 billion, or $7.39 a share, up from $4.41 billion, or $4.88 a share, the year prior. Adjusted earnings were $7.54 a share. Analysts polled by FactSet expected $6.91 a share. Revenue rose 43% to $19.29 billion, driven by a 46% increase in volume, partially offset by a 5% decline in realized prices. Wall Street expected $17.94 billion in revenue.

The company has seen soaring demand for its weight-loss treatments Zepbound and Mounjaro, both of which saw sales more than double in the fourth quarter from the previous year. The company recorded $7.41 billion in Mounjaro revenue and $4.26 billion in Zepbound revenue. Eli Lilly guided for 2026 revenue of $80 billion to $83 billion and earnings of $33.50 to $35 a share. Analysts see 2026 revenue of $77.64 billion and earnings of $32.47 a share. Eli Lilly is also preparing to launch a new weight-loss pill called orforglipron. Analysts have said the convenience of the pill could spark even more demand than Zepbound and Mounjaro, which are injected weekly, as some patients are averse to injections. Read more at The WSJ

Wegovy Maker Novo Nordisk Warns Of 'Painful' Price Cuts As Shares Plunge

Shares in the Danish company which makes Ozempic and Wegovy plunged 18%, as its boss warned things would get worse before they improve following steep price cuts. Novo Nordisk had reported it expected profits and sales to fall by as much as 13%, and on Wednesday chief executive Maziar Mike Doustdar called pricing pressures "unprecedented" and "painful". Novo’s warning reflects mounting competition in the fast-growing market for weight-loss drugs, as it fights for market share with Eli Lilly & Co. and telehealth companies selling cheaper copycat versions of their drugs. It also highlights how drugmakers are under pressure from President Donald Trump to lower pharmaceutical costs for many Americans.

A pill version of the blockbuster obesity shot Wegovy has fed some optimism this year. The pill had a “really good start” with more than 170,000 patients starting on it since its launch, according to Knudsen. “It’s the strongest launch in this market ever,” he said. Rather than cannibalizing sales of its injectable shots, Knudsen said with the early data Novo has, more than 80% of patients are new to GLP-1 treatment. “We see very limited switch from other GLP-1 compounds,” he said. “But again, it’s early days. But I would say our overarching strategy is one of expanding the markets.” Read more at Yahoo Finance

Grainger Posts Double-Digit January Sales Pop

Daily sales at industrial distributor W.W. Grainger Inc. rose more than 10% in January on a constant-currency basis, executives said Feb. 3, adding an optimistic data point to the big jump in the ISM Manufacturing PMI reported less than 24 hours earlier. The double-digit pop in January organic sales was more than double the 4.6% growth posted in the fourth quarter by Grainger, which is headquartered near Chicago and has more than 4.5 million customers around the world. It’s also several percentage points higher than the 2026 range of 6.5% to 9% that Chairman and CEO D.G. Macpherson and his team are forecasting.

Despite chatter of an inflection in the factory sector, Chairman and CEO D.G. Macpherson says the mood remains merely “okay.” “There’s not really enormous tailwinds that people are seeing from a volume perspective,” he said about recent conversations the Grainger team has been having with large customers. “I think everybody is seeing price, which obviously helps with the revenue numbers. But generally, it’s very, very industry-specific at this point. So you can run the gamut from very high optimism to fairly strong pessimism as well. Overall, I think the mood is okay.”

Read more at Industry Week

NASA Conducts Artemis II Fuel Test, Eyes March for Launch Opportunity

NASA concluded a wet dress rehearsal for the agency’s Artemis II test flight early Tuesday morning, successfully loading cryogenic propellant into the SLS (Space Launch System) tanks, sending a team out to the launch pad to closeout Orion, and safely draining the rocket. The wet dress rehearsal was a prelaunch test to fuel the rocket, designed to identify any issues and resolve them before attempting a launch. Engineers pushed through several challenges during the two-day test and met many of the planned objectives. To allow teams to review data and conduct a second wet dress rehearsal, NASA now will target March as the earliest possible launch opportunity for the flight test.

Moving off a February launch window also means the Artemis II astronauts will be released from quarantine, which they entered in Houston on Jan. 21. As a result, they will not travel to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida Tuesday as tentatively planned. Crew will enter quarantine again about two weeks out from the next targeted launch opportunity. With March as the potential launch window, teams will fully review data from the test, mitigate each issue, and return to testing ahead of setting an official target launch date.

Read more at nasa.gov

Driveline Manufacturing Merger Completed

Dauch Corporation - the automotive driveline manufacturing and metal forming business known previously as American Axle & Manufacturing - completed its takeover of Dowlais Group plc and its subsidiaries, GKN Automotive and GKN Powder Metallurgy. The approximately $1.44-billion deal involving both cash and stock was first announced in January 2025. "This is a defining and transformational time for both companies," stated chairman and CEO David C. Dauch. "By uniting the capabilities of both organizations under one brand, we're creating a premier Driveline and Metal Forming supplier serving the global automotive industry that is built to perform—one positioned to meet today's demands and lead into the next era of propulsion."

Dowlais was created in 2023 through an asset spinoff by investor group Melrose Industries. GKN Automotive designs and manufactures automotive sideshafts, propshafts, and AWD/eDrive systems. GKN Powder Metallurgy manufactures metal powders and sintered precision components. Dauch Corp. manufactures axles and chassis systems for cars, SUVs, and commercial vehicles, as well as electric drive systems for EVs. It also has hot, warm, and cold forging operations for driveline components. The combined company will be headquartered in Detroit, with manufacturing operations in the U.S., Europe, and China.

Read more at American Machinist

Michale Dell’s Son Wants to Shore Up the Texas Power Grid

Zach Dell aims to shore up the Texas power grid with an army of batteries installed one home at a time.  The 29-year-old is the son of billionaire computer pioneer Michael Dell and the co-founder and chief executive of Base Power, a home-battery company that says it is adding more than 50 customers a day in markets including Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston. Base Power has raised more than $1.3 billion from investors as battery storage is booming and grid-reliability issues are sending homeowners in frantic search of backup power.

Utility customers across the country increasingly face less reliable service from a combination of severe weather and an aging electricity system, while federal regulators have warned that power demand is outpacing infrastructure development. In states like Texas, both hurricanes and winter storms can cause disruptions. Base Power describes itself as a subscription service. The company owns the batteries and acts as a retail power provider for its customers, offering what it promises will be a lower-than-average rate. If the lights go out, the batteries will power a home for a day or two, depending on the size of the installation.  In the meantime, Base Power bundles the scattered residential batteries and plays power trader, acting as a single power plant. The company has more than 10,000 customers and about 200 megawatt-hours of installed capacity so far. The Austin-based company hopes to expand beyond Texas.

Read more at The WSJ

Daily Market Update Feb 4, 2026

The Mar ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.05 at $3.36. The Mar ‘26 crude oil contract is down $0.21 at $63.00.

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

Public opinion is a compound of folly, weakness, prejudice, wrong feeling, right feeling, obstinacy, and newspaper paragraphs.

Robert Peel - British Prime Minister who was born on this day in 1788.

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