Member Briefing January 14, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

CPI = 2.7%. December Core Consumer Prices Rise Less Than Expected

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Tuesday morning showed that on a "core" basis — which excludes the more volatile categories of food and energy — consumer prices rose 0.2% over last month and 2.6% over last year. The 2.6% increase in "core" CPI matches the rise reported in November and equals the slowest pace of annual inflation since March 2021.  On a headline basis, consumer prices rose 0.3% over the prior month and 2.7% over the prior year.

  • The details of Tuesday's report showed inflation pressures on household food budgets remain notable, with the index for food rising 0.7% in December and outpacing overall price increases.
  • The BLS noted that 5 of the 6 major grocery store food groups — which includes grains, meat, dairy, fruits, drinks, and other food at home — saw prices monthly price increases in December. Only the cost meat, which includes fish, eggs, and poultry, fell, declining 0.2% in December.
  • Helping push core consumer prices lower was a drop in the price of used cars and trucks, with that index calling 1.7% in December. Airline fares also fell 0.5%, with the overall transportation services category logging a 0.5% drop in prices last month.
  • The price of gas fell 5.3% in December amid a broader drop in oil prices. The energy index fell 2% from the prior month in December.
  • Shelter costs increased 0.4%, which was the biggest item for the monthly increase, according to the BLS. The category accounts for more than one-third of the CPI weighting and was up 3.2% on an annual basis.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

NFIB: Small Business Optimism Ended 2025 on a Positive Note

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points in December to 99.5 and remained above its 52-year average of 98. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, two increased, three decreased, and five were unchanged. An increase in those expecting better business conditions primarily drove the rise in the Optimism Index. The Uncertainty Index fell 7 points from November to 84, the lowest reading since June 2024. Key Findings Include:

  • Twenty percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up 6 points from November and ranking as the top problem. This is the highest reading since May 2021.
  • In December, both actual and planned prices fell from the previous month. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell 4 points from November to a net 30% (seasonally adjusted). A net 28% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices in the next three months (down 2 points).
  • A net negative 3% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, down 5 points from November and the lowest reading since January 2021.
  • The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions rose 9 points from November to a net 24% (seasonally adjusted), contributing the most to the rise in the Optimism Index. This was the first increase since July.
  • In December, 64% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree, unchanged from November. Beneath simple yes/no impact binary, there was a positive shift from those reporting a significant impact to those reporting a moderate or mild impact.

Read more at The WSJ

Manufacturing Saw 8K Job Losses In December 2025 – Here Are Some Of The Details

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the manufacturing industry lost 8,000 jobs in December 2025, according to a Jan. 9 news release. It’s a slight improvement compared to December 2024, which had 10,000 job cuts. Preliminary numbers also showed the manufacturing industry lost an estimated 68,000 jobs between Dec. 1, 2024, and Dec. 1, 2025, based on seasonally adjusted data.

The chemical and plastics and rubber product sectors lost the most jobs, with approximately 3,100 and 4,900, respectively. Followed by machinery with 2,800, and furniture and related products with 1,200 job cuts. Other manufacturing sectors added jobs, though, not by much. Miscellaneous manufacturing — which comprises medical equipment and supplies as well as other products such as golf balls or doll parts not classified in the other sectors — added about 1,800 jobs. Beverage, tobacco, and leather and allied products added approximately 1,400 jobs. The transportation equipment sector — which accounts for the manufacturing of motor vehicle bodies, trailers and parts, as well as aerospace products and ship and boat building — added about 1,200 jobs.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

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Hochul's State Of The State Address Focuses On Affordability

Gov. Kathy Hochul's goal in 2026 is to make life in New York less expensive. She laid out her plan and more during her State of the State address on Tuesday. At the center of her agenda is a push toward universal childcare, which would include new programs for 2-year-olds and expanded access for 3-year-olds in New York City. Hochul said there will also be pilot programs across the rest of the state for children up to 3 years old, adding the goal is to have universal pre-K for 4-year-olds statewide by 2028.

Hochul said the state will invest an additional $250 million in affordable housing and $100 million in manufactured housing. Other proposals in her speech included a potential ban on using artificial intelligence in political ads, a crackdown on staged car accidents to lower insurance costs, the elimination of taxes on tips, and the expansion of the state's nuclear power capacity.  Hochul slammed President Trump, saying he isn't above the law regarding his immigration crackdown. To combat this, Hochul said New York will ban the use of state resources to assist in federal immigration raids on people who haven't committed serious crimes.

Read more at CBS

Read the Will Barclay’s Assembly Minority Reply

House Conservatives Pitch Framework For Second Big GOP-Only Bill On Affordability

The Republican Study Committee, the largest caucus of conservatives in the House, on Tuesday unveiled a framework for a second reconciliation bill that can pass through Congress with only Republican support, with the aim of addressing affordability concerns. It pitches housing reforms aimed at boosting access to home ownership; health reforms like reforming ObamaCare subsidies to structure them as a sort of health savings account rather than providing them to insurance companies; and slashing regulations with the aim of boosting energy production.

  • On housing, the framework proposes creating “‘The Don’ Down Payment program,” creating a zero-to-low down payment option for creditworthy borrowers through the Federal Housing Administration, and allowing homeowners with mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to keep their existing mortgage rate when purchasing a new home.
  • It calls for the creation of tax-advantaged Home Savings Accounts to help individuals save for a home, and for the elimination of capital gains tax on the sale of homes to first-time home buyers and on the sale of rental homes to tenants. It also calls for the repeal of the estate tax, a longtime GOP priority.
  • On health care, in addition to reforming the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies to flow into accounts controlled by individuals, it calls for funding to be appropriated for “cost-sharing reductions,” which were ruled to be out of compliance with the Senate’s Byrd rule on the “One Big Beautiful Bill” last year.
  • On the energy front, the framework proposes to significantly rein in regulations. One provision could require congressional approval for major regulations.

 

Read more at The Hill

 

Bessent, Other Trump Allies and Officials Fear Blowback From Powell Probe

Some Trump administration officials and allies have expressed concern that the Justice Department’s criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could imperil the president’s nominees in the Senate and rattle financial markets. Among those alarmed about potential fallout was Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is worried about an impact on financial markets and hurdles during the Senate confirmation process for whomever the president selects to be the next Fed chairman once Powell’s term ends in May, the people said.

Late Sunday, after the probe became public, Sen. Thom Tillis (R., N.C.) said he would oppose any Fed nominee put forward by Trump “until this legal matter is fully resolved.” Tillis, who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, could block a nominee from making it to a full floor vote by siding with Democrats in opposition, given the narrow split in the panel. Even if a nominee did make it to the Senate floor, Tillis would only need a handful of other Republicans to join him and Democrats to block a nominee. Republicans have a 53-47 majority in the chamber. Several other Senate Republicans on Monday expressed concern with the Justice Department probe, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.), who said he hoped the dispute was resolved quickly.

Read more at The WSJ

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Will the U.S. Lose Its Measles Elimination Status in 2026?

Measles still kills about 100,000 people annually worldwide, but vaccines have kept the deadly contagion in check in the U.S. since 2000, when it was designated as officially eliminated. That might be changing. Recent outbreaks could reverse America’s measles elimination status, reflecting a growing distrust of vaccines and an accompanying vulnerability that can be deadly for children and other at-risk populations.

The Pan American Health Organization – a part of the World Health Organization is set to evaluate U.S. measles data this year. We’re at risk of following our neighbor to the north, which lost its measles elimination status in November amid an outbreak that has led to over 5,000 confirmed cases. Even if the U.S. manages to keep its elimination status, the measles situation is cause for concern. The U.S. reported over 2,000 measles cases in 2025, 93% of which were among unvaccinated people or those with an unknown vaccination status. It is the highest annual total since 1992 and by far the most since the disease was declared eliminated.

Read more at US News and World Report

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast - Thursday May 7, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. West Hills Country Club, Middletown.

Networks

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, January 14, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00. Selux Corporation, Highland.

Health & Safety Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, February 12, 2026, 8:30 - 10:30. Location TBD

Insight Exchange On Demand Webinars

Webinars and Seminars

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Training

Making a Profit In Manufactuirng This course is designed to provide supervisors and team leaders with the financial acumen essential for maximizing profitability and reducing operational risks. January 20 & 21, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

Human Resource Management Issues This identifies and explains key legal issues that a manager may have to address in the workplace today. It helps current and future managers realize their responsibility to understand and enforce the employment laws that speak to these issues and minimize their chances of ending up in court. February 3 & 4, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

Effective Business Communication This course is designed to build core communication skills essential in professional settings. Topics covered include identifying appropriate communication channels, honing active listening skills, and mastering techniques like paraphrasing, summarizing, and clarifying for better interpersonal communication. February 17 & 18, 8:30 - 12:30 Via Zoom.

Lean Six Sigma Green Belt This program combines online coursework, with live Zoom sessions, to deliver a flexible and effective learning experience in Lean Six Sigma methodologies. Most Mondays March 2 - June 8 Via Zoom.

(Special Info session for those who are 'Green Belt curious' February 23rd)

Lean Six Sigma: Yellow Belt - Yellow Belt is an approach to process improvement that merges the complementary concepts and tools from both Six Sigma and Lean approaches. 3 Full days - March 9,10 & 11 - DCC Fishkill.

Trade Wars

China’s Trade Surplus Reaches Record, Defying Expectations of Tariff-Driven Slowdown

China’s trade surplus, the difference between its exports and imports, reached a record in 2025 at $1.19 trillion. Exports jumped 5.5% last year from 2024 in dollar-denominated terms, compared with 5.9% growth the prior year, China’s customs agency reported Wednesday. Shipments to the U.S. fell, but Chinese manufacturers found new customers in the rest of the world. The global economy, powered by AI spending, kept chugging along, keeping external demand strong. And another year of producer-price deflation made Chinese goods attractive to overseas buyers.

Exports to the U.S. dropped 20% in 2025. Meanwhile, exports to a bloc of Southeast Asian countries jumped 13%, those to the European Union rose 8.4%, those to Latin America increased 7.4% and those to Africa surged 26%. Overall exports for the month of December grew 6.6% year over year, up from 5.9% in November, while imports rose 5.7%. China’s global trade imbalance has increasingly become a geopolitical liability. Some places, such as the European Union, worry that a flood of cheap Chinese goods could hurt local industries. The International Monetary Fund has warned that China, the world’s second-largest economy, is too big to rely on exports for growth.

Read more at The WSJ

Pentagon to Invest $1 Billion in L3Harris Rocket Motor Business

The U.S. government will invest $1 billion in L3Harris Technologies' ‌growing ​rocket motor business, guaranteeing a steady supply of ‌the much-needed motors used in a wide range of missiles such as Tomahawks and Patriot interceptors. L3Harris said on Tuesday it is planning an IPO of its growing rocket motor business ​into a new ⁠publicly traded company backed by a $1 billion government convertible security investment. The securities will automatically convert to common equity when the company goes public later in 2026.

The deal represents the latest U.S. government investment in Corporate America, which has included a 10% stake in chipmaker Intel and investments in critical ‍mineral producers. It comes just a few days ​after President Donald Trump blasted defense contractors for slow production of weaponry. The investment marks the first direct-to-supplier partnership of this kind and is an outcome of the department's new Acquisition Transformation Strategy and its "Go Direct-to-Supplier" initiative. The strategy calls for the department to negotiate and invest directly with critical suppliers to save money. L3Harris' Missile Solutions unit, which produces missile propulsion systems for many missiles ​including Patriot, THAAD, Tomahawk, and the Standard Missile, will be carved out from the company. L3Harris will retain majority ownership and control of the new entity. The deal all but guarantees a steady flow of business for the new unit.

Read more at US News and World Report

JPMorgan Chase Tops Estimates As Trading Revenue Exceeds Expectations

JPMorgan Chase posted fourth-quarter results that topped expectations on better-than-expected revenue from the bank’s trading operations. Adjusted earnings were $5.23 per share and revenue was $46.77 billion. The company said profit fell 7% to $13.03 billion, or $4.63 per share, because of a pre-announced $2.2 billion reserve tied to its takeover of the Apple Card loan portfolio from Goldman Sachs. Excluding the 60-cent-per-share hit from that transaction, adjusted earnings came in at $5.23 and topped analysts’ expectations.

Companywide revenue rose 7% to $46.77 billion as net interest income also rose by 7% to $25.1 billion, roughly matching analyst expectations for NII. Equities trading revenue surged 40% to $2.9 billion, about $350 million more than analysts had expected, as the company cited strength across operations, especially in its business catering to hedge funds. Fixed income trading revenue rose 7% to $5.4 billion, about $110 million more than expected. Investment banking, however, appeared to disappoint, as fees fell 5% to $2.3 billion.

Separately, bank CEO Jamie Dimon warned that political interference with fed would push up rates. Dimon, speaking with reporters after JPMorgan Chase issued its fourth-quarter earnings results, said political interference with the Fed would cause inflation and interest rates to go up, contrary to President Trump’s stated goal of getting rates to go lower.

Read more at CNBC

Nvidia, Eli Lilly Announce $1 Billion Investment In AI Drug Discovery Lab

AI chipmaker Nvidia and pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly on Monday announced that the two companies would jointly invest $1 billion to create a lab in San Francisco focused on using AI to accelerate drug discovery. “Combining our volumes of data and scientific knowledge with NVIDIA’s computational power and model-building expertise could reinvent drug discovery as we know it," said Lilly CEO David Ricks.

The $1 billion investment will be spent over five years on infrastructure, compute, and talent for the lab. Nvidia's engineers will work alongside Lilly's experts in biology, science, and medicine to generate large-scale data and build AI models to advance medicine development. The lab's work will begin early this year, the companies said. The investment builds on Nvidia and Lilly's existing partnership. Lilly in October said it was building an AI factory with Nvidia's AI systems to speed up drug discovery timelines.

Read more at YahooFinance

GE Draws $1.42B Navy Engine Contract

GE Aerospace is in line to produce a total of 277 turboshaft engines through September 2032 following a $1.42-billion U.S. Navy award, a modification to an earlier contract for T408-GE-400 engines to power U.S. Marine Corps CH-53K helicopters. The award finalizes Lots 9 and 10 production for the CH-53K King Stallion, and adds more detail to the plan for Lots 11, 12, and 13. GE Aerospace is set to manufacture new-production and spare engines at its Lynn, Mass., plant, and as well as provide sustainment services for the engines. Other GE Aerospace plants in Hooksett, N.H.; Rutland, Vt.; Madisonville, Ky.; Dayton, Ohio; and Jacksonville, Fla. supply components for the program.

The Sikorsky CH-53K King Stallion is the USMC’s heavy-lift helicopter, for transporting heavy equipment, personnel, and supplies. The aircraft are capable of lifting more than 27,000 lbs. externally over a 110 nautical mile radius, powered by three T408-GE-400 engines. Those are the turbofan engines GE Aerospace developed especially for the helicopters, which were introduced in 2022.

Read more at American Machinist

Ford Unveils In-House-Built Processor Module For Future Vehicles

Ford Motor Co. has unveiled a new in-house-built computer that will serve as the “brain” of its future software-defined vehicles, the company announced in a Jan. 7 blog post. The high-performance module bundles the management of vehicle infotainment, advanced driver assistance systems, audio and network processing into a single, compact housing that costs 10% to 15% less per unit to produce.

The company says the goal of developing a custom-built processor is to “democratize” advanced vehicle technology that’s typically offered in luxury and high-end models and make it accessible to more Ford customers. Many OEMs source hardware and semiconductors from electronics suppliers such as Nvidia, NXP Semiconductors, Bosch, Continental and others due to their complexity and specialized manufacturing requirements. But Ford is taking a strategic vertical integration approach to ensure that it controls the entire vehicle’s hardware and software stack in the future, which will eventually expand to the automaker’s entire portfolio, per the release.

Read more at Ward’s Auto

Stellantis Cancels Entire Plug-In Hybrid Lineup That Made It Segment Leader

 Stellantis is scrapping its plug-in hybrid electric Jeep SUVs and Chrysler minivan amid slowing EV sales, quality issues and weakened federal fuel economy requirements. The automaker on Friday said the decision to end production of the plug-in hybrid Jeep Wrangler, Jeep Grand Cherokee and Chrysler Pacifica was a result of waning customer demand and the need to focus on “more competitive electrified solutions, including hybrid and range‑extended vehicles.”

“Stellantis continually evaluates its product strategy to meet evolving customer needs and regulatory requirements. With customer demand shifting, Stellantis will phase out plug‑in hybrid (PHEV) programs in North America beginning with the 2026 model year,” the company said in an emailed statement. The decision is an about-face for the automaker, which has touted its U.S. sales leadership of the models for years. In 2024, then-Jeep CEO Antonio Filosa — who is now CEO of Stellantis — said the SUV brand planned to sell 160,000 to 170,000 PHEVs that year, and the company said it represented 41% of U.S. PHEV sales. PHEVs feature traditional internal combustion engines, but also have an all-electric range when charged like an EV.

Read more at CNBC

America’s Biggest Power Grid Operator Has an AI Problem—Too Many Data Centers

America’s AI boom is pushing the nation’s largest power-grid operator to the brink of a supply crisis. Sixty-seven million people in a 13-state region stretching from New Jersey to Kentucky get their power from a market operated by nonprofit PJM. So, too, do the many AI data centers springing up in Northern Virginia’s “Data Center Alley,” which have a bottomless appetite for electricity. Rates are going up for consumers. Older power plants are going out of service faster than new ones can be built. And the grid’s capacity is in danger of maxing out during periods of high demand, which could force PJM to call for rolling blackouts during heat waves or deep freezes to avoid damaging grid infrastructure.

Grid operators such as PJM play a vital role in the U.S. energy system. In the vast region served by PJM, it serves as the intermediary between power producers and the utilities that own the poles and wires and deliver electricity to consumers. PJM’s mission is to balance supply and demand by telling power plants when to ramp production up or down. Other regions of the country are also seeing a surge in power demand tied to data centers. West Texas and the parts of the Southeast and the Southwest are becoming home to massive facilities. Power demand forecasts vary widely, but analysts expect significant growth in the coming years. An analysis by consulting firm ICF forecasts U.S. power demand in 2030 will be 25% higher than it was in 2023, largely because of data center needs.

Read more at The WSJ

J&J Adds 2 US Manufacturing Plants To Investment Plans

Johnson & Johnson said it will establish two U.S. manufacturing facilities as part of a larger $55 billion commitment to support domestic production over the next four years. The pharmaceuticals giant plans to build a cell therapy manufacturing site in Pennsylvania and a drug production plant in Wilson, North Carolina, further expanding its presence in each state, according to multiple news releases. A J&J spokesperson declined to disclose specific financial and location details. J&J said it has begun investing billions of dollars in domestic manufacturing over the past 10 months, with a goal of producing “the vast majority” of its advanced medicines stateside.

Last year, J&J broke ground on a 500,000-square-foot biologics manufacturing facility in Wilson, North Carolina, with construction underway. The drugmaker also signed a $2 billion deal in September to secure manufacturing space at Fujifilm Biotechnologies’ Holly Springs, North Carolina, facility, over a 10-year period. J&J also plans to build a second “multibillion-dollar” facility in Wilson, marking its third investment in North Carolina over the past year. J&J also plans to build a “next generation” cell therapy site in Pennsylvania as other life sciences firms, such as Eurofins and GSK, expand in the state.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Boeing’s Airplane Deliveries Are The Highest In 7 Years. Now It’s About To Pick Up The Pace

Boeing is set to report this week that it delivered the most airplanes since 2018 last year after it stabilized its production, the clearest sign of a turnaround yet after years of safety crises and snowballing quality defects. Now, the aerospace giant is planning to ramp up production. “It’s a long road back from a ... shall we say, a rather dysfunctional culture, but they’re making big progress,” said Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory, an aerospace industry consulting firm.

Boeing’s leaders, including CEO Kelly Ortberg, are gearing up to increase production this year of its cash cow 737 Max aircraft and the longer-range 787 Dreamliners. That could help the manufacturer, the top U.S. exporter by value, return to profitability, as analysts expect this year, territory that was out of reach for seven years as its leaders focused on damage control and were stuck reassuring frustrated airline executives who were awaiting late planes. The recent turnaround has taken place largely on the assembly floor. Under Ortberg, the manufacturer has slashed so-called traveled work, in which assembly tasks are done out of order, to avoid costly mistakes. The company has made other manufacturing changes, as well, including added training.

Read more at CNBC

Quote of the Day

“Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears;

I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him;

The evil that men do lives after them,

The good is oft interred with their bones,

So let it be with Caesar ..."

Mark Antony - (As voiced by William Shakespeare in his play "Julius Ceasar." Antony was born on this day in 83 BC.

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