Member Briefing July 2, 2026

PMI: US Manufacturing Expands Again In June, Though At Slower Rate Than In May

Economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in June for the sixth consecutive month to 53.3%, or 0.7 percentage point lower than May, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index. The overall economy grew for the 20th month in a row, ISM reported. A figure below 50% indicates an industry in contraction.

• Five of the six largest manufacturing industries — computer and electronic products, machinery, transportation equipment, chemical products, and food, beverage and tobacco products, in that order — expanded in June. Petroleum and coal products was the only exception.
• The New Orders Index expanded for the sixth consecutive month after four straight readings in contraction, registering 56%, compared to 56.8% in May.
• The June reading of the Production Index at 52.2% was down from May’s reading of 54.3%.
• The Prices Index remained in expansion at 73%, a 9.1-percentage point decrease from May’s reading of 82.1%.
• The Backlog of Orders Index registered 50.5%, down 1.7 percentage points compared to the 52.2% recorded in May.
• The Employment Index registered 49.7%, up 1.1 percentage points from May’s figure of 48.6%.
• The Inventories Index returned to expansion, registering 51.4%, up from May’s reading of 49.9%.
• The New Export Orders Index returned to contraction with a reading of 48.5%, down from the 50.6% registered in May.
• The Imports Index registered 52.9%, down slightly from May’s reading of 53%.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

ADP: Private Payrolls Rose by 98,000 in June, Less Than Expected

Private sector employment grew by a seasonally adjusted 98,000 for the month, down from an unrevised 122,000 in May and a bit below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 110,000, the payrolls processing firm reported. The ADP report serves as a precursor to the more widely watched nonfarm payrolls count due Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ADP’s count in recent months has generally undershot the official government report, which has shown mostly solid job creation this year.

• Nearly half the growth in June — 48,000 — came from the education and health services sector, a consistent leader for payroll growth.
• All but 2,000 of the new jobs came from services.
• Other sectors posting gains included trade, transportation and utilities (15,000), financial activities (14,000) and other services (8,000). Natural resources and mining lost 5,000 jobs, the only sector in the red. Leisure and hospitality added just 2,000 positions, continuing a slow year for an industry seen as an indicator of underlying consumer demand.
• Annual pay gains for those staying in their jobs held steady at 4.4% while edging higher to 6.6% for job switchers.
• Employment gains were tilted toward small businesses. Establishments with fewer than 50 employees added 53,000, while companies that employ 500 or more saw a gain of 25,000 and those in between rose by 29,000.

Read more at CNBC

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, at EU Central Bank Forum, Says Inflation Risks Are Declining, Predicts AI Will Create Jobs

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said Wednesday that inflation risks have declined in recent weeks but that the central bank still had more work to do to rein in rising prices. “Inflation risks have come down,” Warsh said, noting that “energy prices have come down quite substantially” since the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the ongoing war last month. Inflation is a sore spot for Americans, who are growing more dissatisfied with the economy, according to polls and consumer surveys. In May, inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped to 4.2%, its highest level since 2023. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge also showed price growth was hot, driven by the surge in energy prices.

Warsh also weighed in on artificial intelligence’s growing impact on the economy and inflation, sounding an optimistic note on longer-term prospects for the technology. “We’re all being hit by a series of shocks in the U.S.,” Warsh said. “The AI shock is leading to a boom in capital expenditures. We see that first and foremost in demand, but I’m confident we’re going to see it in supply at some point. So we’re spending most of our time trying to monitor those developments. This is a big paradigm shift, both for the conduct of our policy and for our economies,” Warsh continued. “I think the jobs will be greater, prosperity will be stronger.”

Read more at NBC News

Iran and the Middle East

• Trump Briefed On All-Out War Options In Iran But Opts To Stick With Talks – WSJ
• US And Iran Hold Talks In Qatar; Vance Says No Return To War Unless Needed - Reuters
• IDF Kills Four Hamas Terrorists, Destroys Gaza Rocket Launchers In Strikes – Yahoo
• Iran Warns US, Israel Against Attacks Ahead Of Funeral Processions For Khamenei - Reuters
• Ship Runs Aground In Strait Of Hormuz, Iranian State TV Reports - AP
• Trump Says The U.S. And Iran Getting Along Very Well - Reuters
• Syria’s First Post-Assad Parliament Takes Shape As Interim President Names 70 Lawmakers - AP
• Wave Of Attacks On Iran's IRGC Raises Questions About Renewed Kurdish Insurgency - Fox
• Interactive Map – US and Israeli Attack in Iran – ArcGIS Story Maps
• Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map

Ukraine

• Massive Russian Strikes Pound Ukraine’s Capital - WSJ
• Putin Faces a Political Crisis as Fuel Shortages Ripple Through Russia – WSJ
• Top Ukrainian Commander Says Readying For Possible New Russian Attack From North - Reuters
• Russia Shuts Railway Border Crossings With Finland, Estonia And Latvia - Politico
• Ukrainian Drone Attacks On Oil Refineries Plunge Russia Into A Summer Fuel Crisis - AP
• Ukraine Needs Cash To Keep Russia On The Run, Defense Minister Tells POLITICO - Politico
• Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Other World Headlines

• ‘We’ve Lost So Many’: Venezuelans Search For Loved Ones Under Quake Rubble – France 24
• Spotless Uniforms, Stalled Cranes: Inside Venezuela’s Faltering Quake Rescue Effort - AP
• France Will Hold New Presidential Elections On April 18 And May 2 - Politico
• Germany Charges Ukrainian Over Nord Stream Pipeline Blasts - Reuters
• Britain Unveils Its New Ukraine-Modeled Armed Forces - Politico
• Oceans Reach Hottest June On Record As El Niño Threatens Higher Temperatures – France 24
• Turkey Tightens Security And Showcases Strength And Commitment Ahead Of NATO Summit - AP
• Xi Touts Chinese Wisdom And Solutions As A Model For Developing Nations – WSJ
• Team USA Survives With 10 Men to Reach World Cup Round of 16 – USA Today

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Court Rules New York's All-Electric Buildings Mandate Does Not Violate Federal Law

A federal appeals court has sided with New York state over its statewide mandate to build all-electric buildings, saying it does not interfere with federal law. Known as the All-Electric Buildings Act, the legislation was tucked in the state budget in 2023 and would ban new gas hookups in new buildings under seven stories and then the mandate would apply to all other buildings constructed after Jan. 1, 2029. The All-Electric Buildings Act had been scheduled to go into effect on Jan. 1 but the state agreed back in November to delay its implementation until after the court ruled on it. The law has faced new scrutiny in the last year over increased construction costs at a time of already limited affordable housing, as well as potential strain on a future electric grid.

Gas and construction trade groups sued to block the law two years ago, arguing it violates the federal government's rules around how gas appliances are regulated under the 1975 Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA). The Second Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals ruled on Tuesday that "the challenged laws are not preempted under EPCA." "Interpreting preemption provisions in federal statutes requires ascertaining Congress’s intent. EPCA, a statute that at its heart promotes national energy conservation goals, does not preclude these particular state and local efforts to regulate the use of fossil fuels," the court wrote in its ruling.

Read more at NY State of Politics

ACA Exchange Enrollment Beat Early Forecast By 25%

The Affordable Care Act public exchange system faced big challenges this year, but the number of people who got covered through the system, and stayed covered, appears to be much higher than ACA system managers had expected. Peter Nelson and other analysts at a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services planning office talk about the unexpectedly strong ACA exchange sales totals in a new report posted last week. The ACA exchange system was serving 19.2 million exchange plan enrollees as of April 15. That was down 15% from the enrollee count recorded a year earlier, but it was 25% higher than the 15.4 million enrollee forecast that officials posted in June 2025. It also was 8.5% higher than the 17.7 million enrollee forecast that officials posted four months ago.

One reason exchange use is so high might be enrollment fraud, an HHS analysts said. The analysts noted, for example, that 1 million enrollees lack Social Security numbers. Many of the enrollees in the lowest income category, who face no out-of-pocket cost for premiums, submit no claims. Those figures suggest that as many as 2.6 million of the enrollees may have lied about their income, may not exist or may not know that a broker signed them up for coverage, the analysts said. But the analysts also included a figure showing that exchange use by families with income over 250% of the federal poverty level, who pay a significant amount for premiums, has increased 69%, to 6.6 million, over the past five years.

Read more at BenefitsPro

U.S. Healthcare Affordability Falls To Lowest Level Since 2021

New findings from the latest West Health–Gallup Healthcare Affordability Index, which tracks Americans’ ability to access and pay for health care, show that fewer than half of U.S. adults (49%) can consistently afford needed care and prescription medications when they need them. Over the past year alone, 2.8 million Americans have fallen out of this “Cost Secure” category, unable to keep pace with rising health care costs. The decrease brings affordability levels to their lowest point since the Index launched in 2021.

About 1 in 3 adults in households earning between $120,000 to $179,999 were not “Cost Secure” in 2025, while the same is true of 1 in 5 earning $180,000 or more. Additionally, adults aged 18 to 29 saw the sharpest decline in health care affordability. Less than a third of this group (32%) were “Cost Secure” in 2025, 1 17-point decline since 2021 and a seven-point drop in the last year alone.

Read more at HR Executive

More Policy and Politics Headlines

• Supreme Court Gives Trump New Tools to Accelerate Deportations – WSJ
• Far Left Extends Victory Streak Into Denver: Key Takeaways From Colorado’s Primaries – The Hill
• Anthropic Says Trump Admin Has Lifted Export Controls On Claude Fable 5 And Mythos 5 - CNBC
• Vance And Rubio Take Different Approaches As Iran Tests Their 2028 Prospects - AP
• Judge Blocks US Postal Service's Proposed Restrictions On Mail-In Voting - Reuters
• Inside the Egg Price-Fixing Scandal That Spiked American Grocery Bills - WSJ
• Trump’s Labor Secretary Pick Could Reshape AI Enforcement – HR Executive
• Trump Accounts For Kids Launch July 4: What Parents Need To Know - CNBC
• Trump Takes Maiden Flight on Qatari-Gifted Air Force One - WSJ
• House Republican Leaders Urge Trump To Let Jones Act Waivers Expire As Scheduled In August – Reuters

Long COVID Rehab Program Helps With Return To Work And Focus

Ten weeks of cognitive rehabilitation can help people with long COVID symptoms such as brain fog achieve their goals in returning to work and hobbies, a new clinical trial led by University College London (UCL) researchers has found. This is the first treatment to have a clinically meaningful and lasting benefit for the cognitive difficulties associated with long COVID. The treatment, delivered in hourlong one-to-one video calls in which a therapist helped people with long COVID devise strategies to achieve rehabilitation goals, yielded benefits that lasted for at least six months for most participants, according to the findings published in JAMA Network Open.

The study involved 78 participants in England who had been experiencing cognitive long COVID symptoms for at least three months. Before beginning the treatment, all participants completed an online goal-setting interview to identify three key goals they wanted to attain. Most of these were work-related, as participants sought to regain their proficiencies, but many participants also set hobby-related goals, such as remaining focused while watching an entire film or staying focused on a book. Therapists could then help participants implement strategies tailored to their specific goals.

Read more at Medical Express

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

SOLD OUT! TEE SIGNS STILL AVAILABLE Council of Industry Golf Outing - Monday August 24th 11:30 AM - 7:30 PM. The Powelton Club, Newburgh.

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Risk Management - Environment Health & Safety, In Person at iPark 87 in Kingston.  July 8, 8:30 - 4:30.

Strategies for Managing, Coaching and Dealing with Difficult People, In Person at iPark 87 in Kingston.  July, 15, 8:30 - 4:30.

Lean Six Sigma Yellow Belt, In Person at DCC Fishkill.  October 13, 14, and 15 8:30 - 4:30.

Trade Wars

• U.S. Won’t Renew USMCA, Opening Door For Negotiations With Canada And Mexico – CNBC
• South Korean Exports In June Soar Past $100bn For First Time On Chip Demand – Nikkei Asia
• EU Slaps €3 Fee On Cheap Ecommerce Parcels In Blow To Shein, Temu, AliExpress - Reuters
• EU Sets Up Three Months Of Talks With China Over €360bn Trade Deficit – The Guardian
• EU Issues New Steel And E-Commerce Regulations To Reduce Trade Imbalance With China – AP

After Mullin: A Practical Guide for Employers with TPS Workers

The US Supreme Court’s June 25, 2026 ruling in Mullin v. Doe, 609 U.S. ___ (2026), reshapes Temporary Protected Status law overnight. This alert tells employers what changed, what it means for their workforce, and what to do before and after July 1. The immediate legal effect: the injunctions blocking Haiti and Syria TPS terminations are lifted. The broader structural effect: the primary legal theory used in courts across the country to block TPS terminations for Burma, Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, Yemen, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Nepal (Administrative Procedure Act (APA) arbitrary-and-capricious review) is now foreclosed.

How to Handle Haiti and Syria I-9 Records Right Now - Employers are in something of a purgatory. USCIS instructions suggest that July 1, 2026 may be the operational date indicating the expiration of work authorization not just for Haiti and Syria TPS but also for TPS employees from Yemen, Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, and Burma with a July 1, 2026 date recorded on Form I-9. At the same time, the current agency instructions are ambiguous and not in the form of formal guidance. That formal guidance could issue at any moment, and it will likely either ratify the July 1 date, change the expiration date, or describe a process that results in termination of work authorization. Monitor USCIS.gov daily for updates. For now, a conservative approach would be for employers to treat the July 1, 2026 date as operational. That would likely be defensible if ever challenged. An alternative is for employers to defer taking any action immediately, but to anticipate that they will need to reverify subject employees on short notice in accordance with future guidance.

Read more at Morgan Lewis

New Data Finds AI’s Heaviest Adopters Are Expanding, Not Shrinking, Their Workforces

Ramp released findings from its Economics Lab showing that U.S. companies with the highest levels of AI spending experienced stronger hiring growth than comparable businesses following adoption. The research challenges expectations that widespread AI implementation will result in broad-based job losses, instead pointing to workforce expansion among organizations making substantial investments in the technology.

The report, A New Look at AI’s Impact on Jobs: Firm-Level AI Spending and Workforce Adjustment, analyzed AI spending across 21,599 U.S. companies by combining Ramp’s corporate card and bill payment data with workforce information from Revelio Labs. According to the study, companies adopting AI increased overall headcount by 10.2% during the two years following implementation, with virtually all of that growth occurring among businesses categorized as high-intensity adopters. Companies making lower levels of AI investment showed no statistically significant change in employment. The research also found that entry-level hiring increased even more rapidly among companies investing most aggressively in AI. Those organizations expanded entry-level headcount by 12% over the two-year period after adopting the technology.

Read more at CityBiz

Ferrari and BMW Are the Latest Automakers To Ditch Copper for Aluminum Wiring

irst reported by Reuters, both Ferrari and BMW are following in the footsteps of Tesla and Chinese automakers by shifting away from copper wiring to cost-effective aluminum. This pivot signals a major departure from decades of automotive electrical convention, all in the name of greater production cost stability. Confirmed by communications executive Dario Esposito, the 296 series received aluminum wiring in 2025, serving as the testing ground for the new material. Esposito told Reuters that swapping the copper out for aluminum allowed engineers to slash a fair bit of weight. Together with optimized cable cross-sections, the Italian automaker managed to cut anything from 15 to 20 percent of the total wiring weight.

BMW has been playing the long game with aluminum for over a decade now. The German colossus first experimented with aluminum conductors in the 1 Series back in 2011. After said trials, the Munich-based manufacturer has progressively expanded aluminum use across its entire lineup of battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. The ultimate culmination of this strategy comes in the form of sixth-gen eDrive technologies for battery-electric vehicles, namely the Neue Klasse-underpinned iX3, the i3 line, and the forthcoming CLAR-based iX5.

Read more at Autoevolution

Toyota and Joby Link to Produce eVTOLs

Electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft developer Joby Aviation is forming a joint venture with Toyota Motor Corp. to manufacture the company’s S4 eVTOL. Their venture’s initial goal will be to launch commercial production and establish “advancing manufacturing excellence, with particular emphasis on further improving productivity, quality, and cost,” but will also work to expand production capacity, to support aircraft certification and meet anticipated demand growth. The new venture, Joby Toyota Aero Manufacturing Co., has a capitalization of $2 million, with Toyota holding 51% and Joby taking the remainder.

eVTOLs, sometimes called urban air taxis, are electric-powered aircraft able to hover, take-off, and land vertically. Joby is among the most prominent businesses moving toward commercialization of the vehicles, which also includes Archer Aviation (backed by Stellantis) and Eve Air Mobility, an Embraer holding. Toyota has committed an estimated $894 million in Joby Aviation since 2020. Those investments have mainly involved equity stakes, such that Toyota is one of the largest shareholders in Joby Aviation. But Toyota has also provided engineering and manufacturing expertise to the business, including helping the Joby engineers to develop tooling and production systems, and implement quality control routines.

Read more at American Machinist

UAW Members Vote to Authorize Strike at Woodward MPC in Illinois

UAW Local 5101 members at Woodward MPC, a manufacturer of motion control systems for aerospace applications, have voted to authorize a strike at the company’s Niles, Illinois, facility, according to the UAW. The members voted 71% in favor of authorizing strike action, according to the union. In addition, the UAW members announced they will hold a practice picket outside the plant on June 30. Woodward MPC workers affiliated with the UAW in September 2025, and the UAW alleges the company has stalled contract negotiations. The more than 800 workers are seeking industry-leading wages, improved time off, job security and fair progression.

A Woodward Inc. spokesperson provided the following statement to IndustryWeek: “Woodward believes in transparency and fairness, and that our employees deserve a voice in determining their representation. Woodward is aware that the UAW conducted a strike authorization vote, a procedural step that gives union leadership the ability to call a strike in the future. A case is pending before the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) regarding union representation for our Niles workforce. We are requesting a government-run election to ensure that every employee’s voice is heard. Until this matter is resolved, negotiations will remain paused. At this time, no strike has been called. Niles operations will continue as usual, and we remain focused on delivering critical controls to our aerospace customers without interruption.”

Read more at Industry Week

Lamborghini Reveals New Urus Performance Hybrid SUV After Ditching EVs

Lamborghini on Wednesday revealed a new hybrid performance model of its Urus SUV, as the Italian auto manufacturer continues to lean into gas-electric vehicles after abandoning plans for pure EVs. The Urus SE Performante features a more aggressive exterior design, including a larger grille and hood scoops, as well as interior improvements compared with current models of the SUV. Lamborghini is calling the new Urus SE Performante the “fastest Super SUV in the world,” capable of reaching 0-100 kph, or roughly 0-60 mph, in 3.3 seconds and hitting a top speed of 312 kph, or 194 mph.

The vehicle is a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, which means it has a gas-powered engine as well as a plug to charge a battery pack for improved electric performance. It is powered by an electric motor and a 4-liter twin-turbo V-8 engine, delivering 812 horsepower and roughly 738 foot-pounds of torque, Lamborghini said. The Urus has been crucial to Lamborghini’s success since its introduction nearly a decade ago. The vehicle represents about 50% of the brand’s global sales annually, according to Winkelmann, with total Lamborghini sales nearing 11,000 vehicles last year.

Read more at CNBC

Automakers Report Mixed U.S. Sales Results As Hybrid Vehicles Drive Growth

Second-quarter U.S. vehicle sales are turning into a tale of haves and have nots, as automakers that have hybrid models are outperforming those that don’t amid high gas prices and a decline in demand for all-electric vehicles. Global hybrid leader Toyota Motor on Wednesday reported a 1.1% increase in its second-quarter sales, led by a roughly 20% increase in sales of electrified vehicles. Hyundai Motor, up 4% during the last quarter, reported a 67% increase in hybrids during the first half of the year, while Honda Motor reported that record electrified sales helped it notch an 8.4% increase in overall sales during the second quarter.

Meanwhile, General Motors, which offers a broad EV lineup but only one hybrid, a low-volume Corvette, reported a 4.2% decline in second quarter sales. Outliers in the second quarter include Chrysler parent Stellantis, which was up 5.9%, and Nissan Motor, up 9.6%. Both offer limited electrified models, including hybrids and/or EVs, but are in the midst of sales-focused turnaround plans. Having the right mix of products is key for automakers. Right now, aside from hybrids the right mix increasingly means having affordable vehicles, as many Americans grapple with inflation, high gas prices and other issues have been pushed out of the new vehicle market.

Read more at CNBC

Small-Engine Makers Gain Big Momentum in Data Centers

A few years ago, the idea of using hundreds of small engines to power gigawatts of data-center capacity would have seemed ridiculous. Not so today. More hyperscalers are seeking to hook their data centers to off-grid power, bypassing lengthy wait times to connect to the grid. Many of them are looking to smaller natural-gas turbines that have shorter wait times than the heavy-duty ones. But even these are selling out, and reciprocating engines are gaining more traction, said Musfika Mishi, an analyst at BloombergNEF. Reciprocating engines are the type that power cars and cruise ships.

Among U.S. data-center projects tracked by BloombergNEF that plan to use on-site natural gas and have disclosed timelines, about 55% expect to use gas turbines and 29% plan on using reciprocating engines. Compared with turbines, reciprocating engines tend to be smaller, less efficient, more emissions heavy and require more frequent maintenance. But they are more readily available. Lead times for engines can range from one to two years, while aeroderivative turbines can take up to three years, according to BloombergNEF. Some heavy-duty, utility-scale turbines have wait times of seven to eight years.

Read more at The WSJ 

Daily Market Update July 1, 2026

The August ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.05 at $3.22. The August ‘26 crude oil contract is down $0.70 at $68.80.

Read more at NRG

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Quote of the Day

“All good books are alike in that they are truer than if they had really happened and after you are finished reading one you will feel that all that happened to you and afterwards it all belongs to you: the good and the bad, the ecstasy, the remorse and sorrow, the people and the places and how the weather was. If you can get so that you can give that to people, then you are a writer.”

Ernest Hemingway - American Writer who died on this day in 1961.

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