Member Briefing July 20, 2026

Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Grew ‘Significantly’ in July

Manufacturing activity grew significantly in New York State in July, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose ten points to 15.6.

• The new orders index climbed nineteen points to 22.2, and the shipments index rose sixteen points to 24.4–a four-year high–pointing to marked increases in orders and shipments.
• The delivery times index edged up to 13.0, suggesting that delivery times continued to lengthen.
• The supply availability index remained negative at -10.0, pointing to worsening supply availability.
• The index for number of employees rose two points to 11.4, its highest reading since December 2022, and the average workweek index came in at 2.8, suggesting an increase in both employment and hours worked for a sixth consecutive month.
• The pace of price increases remained elevated, but the prices paid index declined nine points to 52.3, and the prices received index dipped four points to 27.6, suggesting that the pace of price increases slowed slightly after particularly sharp increases in May and June.
• New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and employment is expected to grow.
• Capital spending plans remained modest.

Read more at CNBC

PPI = 5.5% - Wholesale Prices Unexpectedly Declined 0.3% In June On Big Drop In Gasoline

Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in June as sliding energy costs helped brighten the inflation picture, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. The produce price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.3% decline for the month, compared to the Dow Jones consensus estimate for the final-demand cost measure to be unchanged. On an annual basis, the index indicated a 5.5% inflation rate.

• The May reading was revised sharply lower, from an initially reported increase of 1.1% to 0.6%.
• Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.2%, against the outlook for a 0.3% increase. Core PPI less trade services rose 0.1% and was up 5.1% from a year ago.
• Goods prices posted a 1.4% monthly decline, the biggest drop since July 2022.
• Energy slumped 6.4%.
• Final demand food prices were off 0.6%.
• Services prices, meanwhile, rose 0.2%, boosted by a 0.4% increase in trade services.

Read more at CNBC

US Manufacturing Output Unchanged In June, But Accelerates In Second Quarter

U.S. factory production was unchanged in June, but grew at a robust pace in the second quarter, driven by an artificial intelligence build-up and businesses ​accumulating inventory in anticipation of shortages and higher prices due to the war ‌in the Middle East. The flat reading in manufacturing output last month reported by the Federal Reserve on Friday followed an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in May. Output ​increased 1.1% year-on-year in June. It grew at a 4.7% annualized rate ⁠in the second quarter, the fastest in five years, after expanding at a 1.4% ​pace in the January-March quarter.

• Production of durable goods slipped 0.1% over the month, offseting a 0.2% gain in the output of non-durable goods.
• Motor vehicles and parts production rose 0.7% over the month.
• Output of computers and peripheral equipment fell 0.5%, though it increased 9.2% year-on-year and rose at a ​7.2% rate in the second quarter.
• Output of semiconductors and related electronic components rose 0.5% ‌last month ⁠and increased at a 10.2% pace in the second quarter.
• Mining production rose 0.4% last month after increasing 1.1% in May. Energy output increased 0.5%, ​with oil and gas ​well drilling rising ⁠0.3%.
• Utilities production rebounded 0.4% as higher temperatures boosted demand for air conditioning after dropping 0.7% in May.
• Capacity utilization for the industrial sector, a measure of how fully firms are ⁠using ​their resources, was unchanged at 76.1 in June. It is ​3.3 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average. The rate for the manufacturing sector dipped to 75.7% from ​75.8% in May. It is 2.5 percentage points below its long-run average.

Read more at Reuters

Iran and the Middle East

• US Strikes Iran After Two American Troops Killed In Jordan – Financial Times
• Risk Of Broader Gulf War Rises As US, Iran Escalate Attacks - AP
• Oil Reverses As Iran Raises Hopes Of Fresh Negotiations - Reuters
• US Oil Firms Sign Deals With Iraq To Develop Alternative Shipping Routes - Reuters
• Iran Threatens Wider War If US Strikes Persist: ‘No Political Border’ Will Be Safe – The Hill
• US Denies Iranian Claims It Hit Civilian Infrastructure In Latest Strikes - BBC
• Israel’s Parliament Dissolves Ahead Of Oct. 27 Elections - AP
• Iranians Suffer New Uncertainty And Anxiety As US Steps Up Attacks – Reuters
• Interactive Map – US and Israeli Attack in Iran – ArcGIS Story Maps
• Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map

Ukraine

• Russia Launches Major Ballistic Missile Attack On Ukrainian Cities - BBC
• Ukraine’s New Prime Minister Takes Office With A Hard Winter Looming – AP
• Ukrainians Protest Zelenskyy’s Ouster Of His Popular Defense Minister - AP
• Zelensky Seeks to Quell Growing Discontent Over Ouster of Defense Minister -WSJ
• What The Lviv Draft Riot Tells Us About Ukraine’s Struggle To Send Men To Fight – France 24
• Pro-Kremlin Blogger Who Turned On Putin Is Arrested As Russia Steps Up Crackdown - NBC
• A Putin Critic Is Convicted On Charges That Will Keep Him From Campaigning For Russia's Parliament - PBS
• Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Other World Headlines

• The World’s Biggest Sporting Event Came to America—and Ranch Dressing Won – WSJ
• UK’s Andy Burnham Named Labour Leader Ahead Of Taking Over As PM – France 24
• What To Know About The Challenges Andy Burnham Will Face As UK Prime Minister - AP
• Five Guys To Open In Beijing As More US Chains Hunger For Success In China - SCMP
• South Korean Central Bank Raises Rates As Economy Shows Strength – Nikkei Asia
• Magnitude 7.3 Quake Hits Mexican Coast Near Guatemala – France 24
• The U.S. Saw an Investment Boom in Venezuela. Post Earthquake It’s a $37 Billion Problem. - WSJ
• Asian Allies Build Up Missile Production As US Stockpile Dwindles – Nikkei Asia
• China Wants To End AI Romances – The Economist
• Spain Suffocates Lionel Messi And Argentina, Wins World Cup On Ferran Torres' Extra-Time Winner – Yahoo

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A Statistical Revamp Is About to Lower Inflation, at a Critical Time

An acceleration in the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation has some officials warning that higher interest rates might be in order. A bit of relief, though, is on its way—not from prices themselves, but the way they are measured. The agency responsible for publishing the Fed’s preferred measure, the price index of personal-consumption expenditures, plans to revamp how it handles three components. The effect, according to economists, will be to lower core PCE inflation. The core rate excludes food and energy to gauge underlying price pressures better. Economists estimate that when the revised approach is rolled out in the August data set to be published Sept. 30, core PCE inflation will be about two-tenths of a percentage point lower than under the old formula.

Statistical agencies regularly tweak their indicators. This makeover is getting added attention because it comes at a crucial time for monetary policy. Though the likely effect is small, it could, at the margin, weaken the case for a rate hike. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is tweaking its measurement of the cost of investment management, software and legal services, and it will apply changes retroactively to the past five years. A few tenths of a percentage point won’t alter the big picture. Inflation has run well above the Fed’s 2% target for more than five years. The new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, has said he isn’t interested in splitting hairs, adding that he prefers to focus on how the inflation rate looks “to the left of the decimal point.”

Read more at The WSJ

GOP State Lawmakers Say Energy Policy Working Against Businesses

Confer Plastics employs 150 people at its North Tonawanda facility, where they make a wide assortment of products, from table and stool sets, to sleds and kayaks. President Bob Confer says they’re currently expanding. “We're adding 30,000 square feet because I believe in the abilities of my people to make and sell products that consumers want,” he said. “But at the same time, I worry that that building could be an empty shell 15 years from now, because of those higher costs.” What worries Confer is the state’s energy grid. Critics say it’s outdated, in need of repair and expansion, but is only getting tested more as demand increases.

It worries his guests who appeared Wednesday, July 15. State Senator Robert Ortt, the Senate’s minority caucus leader, was one of them. “You're hearing a lot of criticism of high energy employers, people who are going to come into New York and use a lot of power, and that's going to put a lot of strain on the grid, and that's going to cause your bills to go up. I think that's a false narrative and a false choice,” Ortt said. “That is a narrative that has been foisted upon New Yorkers because of bad energy policy. Not just yesterday, but for a long time, we have an antiquated grid that is struggling to maintain and provide the base load of power today.”

Read more at WAMC

Pentagon Suspends CMMC Phase Two Requirements, Launches Review Of Program

The Pentagon is suspending the ramp up of new Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification third-party assessment requirements, while also launching a sweeping review of the CMMC program that once again calls into question the future of the contractor cyber compliance regime. In a July 13 announcement, the Defense Department said it is suspending plans to introduce phase two of the CMMC requirements. That would have involved DoD requiring third-party cybersecurity assessments across all contracts involving sensitive but unclassified information starting Nov. 10, 2026.

DoD says the phase one requirements for applicable contracts to require a CMMC self-assessment, which went into effect last November, remain in force. But the Pentagon is now launching a 60-day, “top-to-bottom” review of the certification program, according to a July 13 memo signed out by DoD Chief Information Officer Kirsten Davies. Davies has tasked the 60-day “CMMC Reform Task Force” with providing recommendations on a framework that “prioritizes speed to capability, lowers barriers for small, medium, and non-traditional businesses, and replaces prohibitive, third-party compliance models with scalable, realistic security measures.”

Read more at Federal News Network

More Policy and Politics Headlines

• UAW's Fain Hires Criminal Defense Team Amid Federal Grand Jury Probe – Detroit News                                                                                                                                       
• Ulster County Legislature Passes Resolution Asking The State To Authorize Home Rule Authority For Tax On High Earners – Mid- Hudson News
• SpaceX in Talks to Provide Computing Power for Pentagon’s AI Push - WSJ
• Troy Jackson Has Effectively Secured The Maine Senate Democratic Nomination - Politico
• Fetterman Rips Sanders Over Platner, El-Sayed Endorsements – The Hill
• Democrats Cling To Slim House Advantage In New Poll – The Hill
• NAM Report: Falling Vaccination Rates Have Economic Cost - NAM
• Frequent Oil Draws From U.S. Strategic Reserve Push Old System to Breaking Point - WSJ
• Pentagon Blocks Release Of F-35 Report Citing “Controlled Unclassified Information”– American Machinist
• Governor Hochul Announces Workers’ Compensation Insurance Savings for Employers – Press Release

Cut The Number Of Choices You Make Each Day. Your Brain Will Thank You

The idea that more choice is better is baked into Western culture, but research shows that having more options can make people anxious, indecisive and, paradoxically, less happy with what they pick, said Barry Schwartz, an emeritus psychology professor at Swarthmore University and author of “The Paradox of Choice.” “There have been hundreds of studies showing that there can be too much of a good thing,” Schwartz said. To minimize the mental noise, he said, limit the number of choices you make, and your brain will thank you for it.

Schwartz pointed to one often-cited study that showed shoppers at a gourmet grocery store bought more jars of artisanal jam when they were presented with six flavors rather than with a wider array of 24. In a follow-up study, students were more likely to complete an extra-credit assignment when they were given six topics to choose from instead of 30. People also often end up making worse decisions since more options suggest more potentially bad outcomes, he said. And once someone finally decides from all the possibilities, they may be less satisfied with even a good choice because they fear there was a better alternative.

Read more at The AP

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Trade Wars

• U.S. To Impose 25% Tariff On Certain Goods From Brazil – WSJ
• Brazil Calls Trump’s 25% Tariff Unjust And Vows To Impose Reciprocal Tariffs - AP
• Justice Department Says Over $1 Billion Recovered in Trade-Fraud Crackdown – Dow Jones
• India's European Trade Deals Revive Hopes For Textile Exporters – Nikkei Asia
• All The Trade Promises The EU And The US Never Meant To Keep - Politico
• The Latest Tariff Shift: Section 122 Expiration, 301 and 232 Expansions and Refund Considerations – UHY

China’s Economy Grows at Weakest Pace Since 2022

China’s growth slowed in the second quarter of the year to the weakest pace in more than three years, as surging exports buoyed by the artificial-intelligence boom failed to compensate for a struggling domestic economy and sluggish consumer spending. China’s gross domestic product expanded 4.3% in April to June from a year ago, according to official data released Wednesday, down from 5.0% in the first quarter of the year. This marks the slowest growth since the end of 2022, when the country was grappling with the economic fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic.

This week’s data underscores the lopsided nature of the Chinese economy. Chinese exporters are booming in everything from chips to electric vehicles and industrial batteries. The country’s tech companies are churning out winning AI models in a high-stakes race with the U.S. But, at the same time, much of the domestic economy is a mess. A crash in the property sector has drained family savings and made many unwilling to spend. Young people increasingly struggle to find jobs. Deflation is eroding company profits.

Read more at WSJ

Chipmaker TSMC Pledges Another $100 Billion To Expand US Chipmaking Capacity

Major Taiwan computer chipmaker TSMC said Thursday it plans to spend another $100 billion on expanding its manufacturing capacity in the United States. The latest commitment appears to bring the company’s total pledges for investment in U.S. chipmaking to $265 billion. It also raised its annual revenue forecast after booking record high profits thanks to runaway demand from the boom in artificial intelligence. The extra $100 billion in investments are to “support the strong multiyear demand from our leading U.S. customers,” C.C. Wei, chairman and CEO of TSMC, said Thursday.

As AI-related demand continues to jump and needs for computing power from data centers surge, TSMC has been expanding chip fabrication plants in the U.S., Japan and Taiwan. It said it is increasing its annual capital expenditure budget for this year to $60 billion-$64 billion, up from an earlier estimate of $52 billion-$56 billion. TSMC, or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., is a key supplier to Nvidia and Apple. It had previously already committed $165 billion in the U.S. for building plants in Arizona, with six fabrication facilities planned. An additional four fabrication plants in Arizona will likely be built with the new investments, TSMC said. They will focus on making some of the most advanced chips that are 2-nanometer and below.

Read more at the WSJ

Toyota Exec Says Japanese Automakers Need to Increase Cooperation

Koji Sato wears at least a couple of hats, serving as vice chairman of Toyota after stepping back from the CEO role earlier this year, and also acting as chairman of the Japanese Automobile Manufacturers Association. JAMA covers all the major automakers, including smaller ones like Daihatsu, which sits under Toyota's corporate umbrella. This week, Sato called for automakers like Nissan and Honda to pivot from competition to a more collaborative construction process, starting from the ground up. Specifically, he suggested that greater standardization of parts would simplify supply chains and reduce costs across the board.

To some extent, this already happens. Mitsubishi and Subaru were famous rallying rivals in the 1990s and early 2000s, but if you pop the hood on a WRX, you should be able to find at least one component featuring the diamond star logo, simply because Mitsubishi is such a large supplier of parts. Further, what Sato is calling for is not Honda giving up VTEC and Subaru changing to inline-four engines, but the sharing of basic parts from wiring harnesses to cooling components and right on down to fasteners. With these simplified across multiple manufacturers, R&D dollars can be brought to bear on improving software, efficiency, and developing new technologies.

Read more at Car and Driver

FAA Expected to Certify Another 737 MAX

Boeing Commercial Airplanes started assembly operations recently at its new 737 MAX production line in Everett, Wash., but that may not even be the best news for the OEM this month. Several reports now indicate that the Federal Aviation Administration will in the very near future grant certification for Boeing’s 737 MAX 7 aircraft, the third in its narrow-body jet series and one of two awaiting FAA certification. Neither FAA nor Boeing has confirmed the certification news. Certification for the new 737 MAX 7 and 10 variants has been anticipated for several years, delayed most recently by the FAA’s multi-month, onsite supervision of Boeing’s manufacturing processes following a January 2024 in-flight structural failure aboard an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9.

The 737 MAX 7 is the smallest of four variants of the Boeing’s best-selling series, with room for 138-153 passengers in its typical configuration, and a range of 3,850 nautical miles (7,130 km / 4,430 miles.) The 737 MAX 10 is the largest of the series. In its Q1 2026 statement, Boeing detailed that the 737 MAX 10 is in the final stage of certification flight testing for new aircraft, FAA’s Type Inspection Authorization 2, which precedes authorization of the aircraft’s conformity and airworthiness inspections. FAA certification for the 737 MAX 10 is expected later this year.

Read more at American Machinist

L3Harris, Sierra Space Tapped For Golden Dome

The Space Development Agency announced contracts worth $1.75 billion to build 36 satellites in support of the Pentagon’s Golden Dome missile defense shield. The satellites will be part of Tranche 3 of SDA’s missile defense, warning, and tracking layer, a constellation of satellites in low-Earth orbit. L3Harris and Sierra Space both received contracts to build 18 satellites each and deliver them in time for a potential launch in late 2028.

The Space Force awarded initial contracts for Tranche 3 last December to Lockheed Martin, Rocket Lab, Northrop Grumman, and L3Harris for a total of 72 satellites. This additional batch of 32—which SDA calls Accelerated Missile Defense Tranche 3, or AMDT3—brings the total tranche to 104 spacecraft. Sierra Space’s satellites will be missile warning/missile tracking spacecraft. The company said in a statement that the satellites will be based on its “Horizon” spacecraft. The company is already on contract to build 18 satellites for Tranche 2 of SDA’s tracking layer.

Read more at Air and Space Forces

More than 30 companies commit $10B to Pennsylvania defense industry

More than 30 entities will spend about $10 billion in defense technologies, research and development and job creation, President Donald Trump announced Wednesday at the inaugural Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit in Carlisle. Companies investing in operations across Pennsylvania include Lockheed Martin, JPMorgan Chase, Hanwha, Kratos and General Dynamics. They will focus on shipbuilding, munitions, artificial intelligence and robotics, supporting over 4,000 jobs, Sen. Dave McCormick, R-Penn., said in a press release.

The individual announcements align with the “Arsenal of Freedom,” a blueprint to rebuild the defense industrial base under the Defense Department’s New Acquisition Transformation strategy. The investment also backs Trump’s “peace through strength” agenda to rebuild the U.S. military and address global threats. Pennsylvania ranks seventh among all states in DOD contract value at $20.7 billion between July 14, 2025 and July 14, 2026, according to defense economic research firm MilitarySpend. That number is increasing to more than $34 billion since Trump returned to the White House, McCormick said during his remarks at the defense symposium Wednesday.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Nuclear Fuel Manufacturer TRISO-X To Create More Than A Thousand Jobs In Oak Ridge

A nuclear fuel manufacturing is expanding its operations in Roane County and plans to create more than a thousand new jobs, according to a press release from the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development. TRISO-X is constructing a new fuel facility and research and development center at the Horizon Center Industrial Park in Oak Ridge where it plans to create 1,140 new jobs. TNECD said the final scope of the project is still being determined, but the company anticipates investing hundreds of millions of dollars in the development.

The company was the first to receive a license from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to construct and operate a commercial-scale facility for producing High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium in the U.S. TRISO-X is founded and based in Oak Ridge and is a subsidiary of Maryland-based X-energy. In 2022, the company broke ground on what was, at the time, North America's first commercial advanced nuclear fuel facility.

Read more at Assembly

New Jersey Gov. Sherrill Signs Bill Starting Nuclear Power Procurement

Gov. Mikie Sherrill signed legislation Monday ordering the state’s energy regulators to begin procuring at least one new nuclear power plant to meet rising energy demand over the next decade. The bill, which cleared both legislative chambers in unanimous votes last month, directs the Board of Public Utilities to begin soliciting expressions of interest to construct nuclear generation with the aim of bringing 1,100 megawatts of new power to New Jersey. The measure has faced criticism some quarters over nuclear subsidies that could increase residents’ electricity bills.

The bill’s backers hailed it as a needed step to prepare New Jersey, over the long term, for electricity demands that are expected to soar beyond the current capacity of the 13-state grid run by PJM Interconnection. Nuclear power plants can take a decade and billions of dollars to build, and though they produce large amounts of reliable, low-emission electricity once complete, recent projects have faced significant delays and cost overruns. The legislation requires the state’s other electricity generators to subsidize nuclear plants approved under the bill by purchasing reliable capacity certificates from them once those plants begin generating power and transmitting it to the grid.

Read more at The New Jersey Monitor

Daily Market Update July 17, 2026

The August ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.05 at $2.91. The August ‘26 crude oil contract is up $2.39 at $81.34. 

Read more at NRG

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Quote of the Day

"It's one thing to shoot yourself in the foot. Just don't reload the gun."

Lindsey Graham - US Senator from South Carolina who died last week aged 71.

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