Member Briefing July 15 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Editor's Note:

The Member Briefing will not publish tomorrow, July 16, 2026. We will return as scheduled Monday the 20th.

CPI = 3.5 - Consumer Prices Rose Less Than Expected In June As Energy Prices Eased

Consumer prices posted their biggest decline in more than six years during June as a sharp swoon in energy prices provided at least temporary relief from this year’s inflation surge, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The consumer price index, a broad measure of costs for goods and services across the U.S. economy, was lower than expected across the board. The CPI fell a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.5%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a drop of 0.2% and an inflation rate of 3.8%, following the 4.2% reading in May.

  • Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was flat on the month, putting the 12-month rate at 2.6%. The consensus forecast was for respective increases of 0.2% and 2.9%, following a 2.9% May level.
  • The energy index slumped 5.7% in June, its biggest monthly drop since April 2020, though it still surged 15.7% on an annual basis, pushed by a 26.7% gain for gasoline. However, gasoline and fuel oil both saw decreases of more than 9% in June.
  • Services costs, which are closely watched by Federal Reserve policymakers for longer-run inflation trends, moderated significantly. Services excluding energy costs were flat, with shelter rising just 0.1% and transportation services posting a 0.3% decline.
  • Food prices rose 0.2%,
  • new vehicles were flat and used cars and trucks saw a 0.2% decline.
  • Apparel prices, which are sensitive to both energy and tariff inputs, fell 0.6%.

Read more at CNBC

May U.S. Wholesale Sales Accelerate, Far Outpacing Inventories

The U.S. Census Bureau released its monthly wholesale trade report on July 8, reflecting results through May, which showed another considerable sales gain and acceleration that far outpaced another modest increase in inventories — indicating sales are outpacing stockpiles by a wide margin as of the start of Summer. The report showed that May sales of merchant wholesalers — except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustments or seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes — were $817.4 billion, up 3.4% from the revised April level and up a whopping 18.1% year-over-year. April’s total was revised up from a 2.0% gain to 2.2%.

Within May’s wholesale sales data, durable goods sales jumped 4.2% month-over-month after a 1.5% April gain (revised up from 0.9%) and spiked 18.7% year-over-year. Meanwhile, May nondurable sales rose 2.6% month-over-month — decelerating from April’s 2.9% gain — and were up 17.4% year-over-year. The nondurable gain was again powered by petroleum products that have soared since the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz conflict began at the end of February, but its May sales gain repeated April’s 8.6% — considerably cooled since March’s 25.2% spike.

Read more at Census.gov

The Next Labor Crisis May Be Too Few Workers. Could AI Help Pick Up the Slack?

The advent of artificial intelligence has led to worries that the U.S. faces a future where there will be too few jobs for workers to fill. But the challenge for the economy could be just the opposite: a sharp slowing in the number of people entering the workforce that leads to an unprecedented era of labor scarcity. It is a development that could profoundly reshape how the economy operates, according to an analysis by Steven Ruggles, a leading demographer. Ruggles says the shift could bolster workers’ bargaining power and drive wages higher. It could also mean that for the economy to stay healthy it will need the kind of productivity boost AI might bring.

Based on an analysis of Census Bureau data and Congressional Budget Office immigration and mortality estimates, Ruggles forecast that over the 10 years ending in 2030, the U.S. labor force, the number of people working or seeking work, will have expanded by just 9.1 million people. That would be the fewest in a 10-year span since the decade that ended in 1960. Over the 10 years after that, he forecasts that the labor force will contract by 2.1 million, or 1.3%.

Read more at The WSJ

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

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CBO Estimates FY 2026 Deficit To Be $1.4 Trillion As Entitlements Drive Outlays

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report for June shows that the deficit for the first nine months of this fiscal year is $35 billion greater than during the same period last year. That’s despite a healthy increase in individual and payroll tax collections ($169 billion or 5%) and customs duties from tariffs ($55 billion or 51%). Yet entitlements are growing even faster, swamping reductions in discretionary spending.

Outlays fell for the Education Department ($55 billion), the Environmental Protection Agency ($20 billion) and Commerce Department ($10 billion), partly as a result of Biden-era spending ebbing. Yet these declines were swamped by higher outlays on Social Security ($62 billion), Medicare ($58 billion or 8%), Medicaid ($49 billion or 10%) and the Department of Veterans Affairs ($26 billion or 9%). Net interest payments also increased by $98 billion (13%) owing to the growing federal debt and higher interest rates.

Read more at The CBO

War Leaves Economy With More Stubborn Inflation, Economists Project

The good news: War with Iran didn’t hurt the U.S. nearly as much as economists feared. The bad news: It left inflation, already above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, more persistent—and left the Fed with no room to cut interest rates. That’s the upshot of how the views of economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal have evolved since the previous survey in April, roughly a month into the war.

Forecasters expect the economy to grow 2.1% this year, up from 2% estimated in April, based on the change in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product between the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026. Growth last year was 2%. Economists’ average estimated probability of a recession in the next 12 months fell to 25% from 33% in April, the lowest since the start of 2025. But along with an improved outlook for growth comes greater concern for inflation. Economists expect the consumer-price index to rise 3.4% in the 12 months through December, up from 3.2% in April’s survey.

Read more at The WSJ

New York Democrats Confront Brutal Redistricting Referendum Math

New York Democrats prepping a 2027 referendum to redraw the state’s congressional map will need to confront a bizarre reality about next year’s electorate: There might be more voters in the upstate city of Utica than in the sprawling borough of Manhattan. Democrats have started the process of placing a question on the ballot that would remove state constitutional restrictions on gerrymandering, letting them join the national redistricting wars and giving them the ability to gain up to four seats. November of next year is the earliest possible date for the amendment — and the only option that would allow for new maps before the 2028 elections.

There will be almost nothing else on the ballot next year driving turnout in New York City. The state’s top races will be county executive contests in places like Erie, Onondaga and Suffolk. These purple counties will not give Democrats the built-in turnout advantage they usually enjoy in the blue state. “We can’t expect the results of this referendum to ride successfully on the back of executive elections,” State Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs said. “We have to inspire voters all over the state.”

Read more at Politico

More Policy and Politics Headlines

A Tiny GLP-1 Implant Is The Latest Bet To Help Patients Maintain Their Weight Loss

Losing weight with GLP-1 drugs is only half the battle. Keeping it off long term has proved even harder. Factors such as side effects, high out-of-pocket costs, injection fatigue and stigma around obesity treatment drive troves of patients – some studies estimate roughly half or more – to stop GLP-1s within a year and risk regaining the weight they lost. Years from now, Vivani Medical believes a tiny GLP-1 implant placed under the skin could help address that problem.

Vivani envisions patients would initially use it as a maintenance treatment rather than a therapy people take when they start GLP-1s. Under that approach, patients would first reach an appropriate dose of semaglutide using existing injections or pills, then potentially switch to the implant for longer-term treatment. If everything goes to plan, Vivani believes the device could eventually serve as a convenient option administered just twice a year — or even once annually — to help patients stay on therapy and maintain weight loss, while potentially reducing some side effects associated with existing GLP-1 medicines.

Read more at CNBC

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Trade Wars

Intel To Invest $5.7 Billion In Ireland Chip Production

Intel on Monday said it will invest 5 billion euros, or roughly $5.7 billion, expanding production of its advanced data center and artificial intelligence chips in Leixlip, Ireland. The project, which began earlier this year, will scale capacity for Intel’s Xeon 6 processors and next-generation variants built on the Intel 3 node, according to a news release. The chipmaker also plans to advance research and development activities and create high-tech jobs through its investment. Intel said it will upgrade existing facilities and install new manufacturing equipment at the Leixlip campus, including an expanded automated track system to enhance production.

The company’s latest investment plans would further solidify Ireland as a leading semiconductor manufacturing hub for Europe. “This €5 billion investment represents a definitive commitment to maximize capacity at our Leixlip campus and increase what we can deliver to Intel Foundry customers,” Naga Chandrasekaran, executive vice president, chief technology and operations officer and general manager at Intel Foundry, said in a statement.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Airlines and Hyperscalers Clamor for Turbines. Only a Few Companies Make the Parts.

Airlines and the hyperscalers have one thing in common: They are desperate for turbines to power their jets and data centers. At the heart of this surging demand are a few companies that manufacture the highly specialized parts. Western production of these turbine blades and vanes is concentrated in four companies, according to a report from SemiAnalysis. They are publicly listed Howmet Aerospace, Berkshire Hathaway-owned Precision Castparts, private-equity-owned Consolidated Precision Products and DPC Holdings, the parent of U.K.-based Doncasters Group, which made its public-market debut in New York last month. Precision Castparts and Howmet have the biggest market shares.

Turbine blades and vanes are “among the most demanding components modern industry makes,” the SemiAnalysis report said. Each of the parts is created with a new wax mold that is made from scratch, according to Kristine Liwag, equity analyst at Morgan Stanley. Wait times for aircraft run 10 years or longer. Heavy-duty power turbines are facing backlogs of as long as eight years, according to BloombergNEF. Smaller, aeroderivative turbines that are adapted from jet-engine designs can take 15 to 36 months. The long backlogs are helping drive demand for these companies’ spare-parts business. Airlines are forced to fly older planes for longer and need to keep buying spares.

Read more at the WSJ

Rolls-Royce Expands U.S. Generator Assembly Capacity

Rolls-Royce has expanded its U.S. manufacturing footprint with the opening of a new $24 million logistics and assembly facility in Mankato that will more than double production capacity for backup power systems used in critical infrastructure. The 250,000-square-foot center was built adjacent to the company's existing mtu power generation manufacturing facility and is designed to support increased production of mtu Series 4000 generator sets assembled for customers throughout the Americas. The expansion adds logistics and assembly space to meet growing demand for backup power systems used in hospitals, airports, industrial facilities and data centers.

Approximately one third of the capacity is dedicated to production and assembly activities. The building includes climate-controlled logistics and assembly areas, interior loading and unloading facilities, and space for future expansion. The generator sets assembled in Mankato are powered by mtu Series 4000 engines manufactured at Rolls-Royce's facility in Aiken, S.C., where the company announced a $75 million expansion in 2025. Together, the two projects represent nearly $100 million in U.S. manufacturing investment aimed at increasing production of backup power systems.

Read more at Assembly Magazine

IBM Warns AI Boom Squeezing Software Budgets

IBM said it had "faltered" in keeping pace with a shift in corporate spending from software to data-center infrastructure ‌and would take a big earnings hit in the second quarter, in the clearest sign yet of AI's growing toll on the sector. IBM's shares tanked 25% on Tuesday, putting the stock on track for an even steeper single-day decline than it suffered during the 1987 "Black Monday" crash. Other software stocks also fell.

The warning shows that businesses racing to secure access ​to supply-constrained servers, chips and networking gear are diverting spending away from other technologies, adding to concerns about a software industry already ​rocked by the rise of AI tools that can write computer code and automate tasks. IBM said the weakness was largely in its mainframe business, which sells high-powered computers and software that process millions of daily transactions for industries such as banking and airlines. It also noted that businesses were prioritizing cybersecurity spending given ​recent breakthroughs in AI hacking abilities.

Read more at Reuters

Volkswagen CEO Says 50,000 More Job Cuts May Be Needed To Close Competitive Gap

Volkswagen may need to cut about 50,000 more jobs to match the ‌competitiveness of rivals, its CEO told staff in an internal memo, effectively confirming for the first time that the automaker is looking to reduce up to 100,000 positions. Oliver Blume is battling to streamline Europe's biggest carmaker, whose profits have slumped ​as it faces billions of euros in tariff costs, stiff competition in China and pressure ​on its German manufacturing network to become more efficient. After already agreeing 50,000 job cuts ⁠across the group, including its Porsche and Audi subsidiaries, the company must work on reducing costs ​further, having calculated a cost disadvantage versus comparable companies of 20%, Blume said in the memo.

The memo ​follows angry calls from workers for management to explain its restructuring plans, which Blume presented to the company's supervisory board ‌on ⁠Thursday. Sources familiar with the matter said labour representatives on the committee blocked the proposals, which were said to include job cuts and the possible closure of four factories. "As of today, we still cannot confirm competitive use cases for the plants of Emden, Hanover, Zwickau and Neckarsulm in the 2030s," Blume said in ​the memo.

Read more at Reuters

Mars To Close Nature’s Bakery Plant, Lay Off 345 Workers

⁠Mars is closing a Nature’s Bakery production facility in Hazelwood, Missouri, according to a WARN notice filed with the state. The move will lead to layoffs of 345 workers. The plant will continue operating through 2026, with a permanent closure planned for September 2027. Layoffs will be conducted in September of this year and in February 2027. Nature’s Bakery is transitioning manufacturing to other facilities, according to the WARN notice. The soft naked snack bar brand has other production sites in Salt Lake City and Carson City, Nevada. The company said impacted employees can seek other employment within Nature’s Bakery and Mars.

Nature’s Bakery makes whole wheat, oatmeal, fig and brownie bars that are plant-based and nut free. Mars bought the brand in 2020 shortly after it purchased fellow snack bar brand Kind. “As we continuously evaluate our manufacturing footprint and evolving business needs, we’ve carefully made the difficult decision to close our Hazelwood manufacturing facility in September 2027,” a Mars spokesperson said in a statement. “This decision in no way reflects the performance of the site or our dedicated Associates.”

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

BMW Supplier Schaeffler to Deploy Hundreds of Humanoid Robots

Schaeffler AG plans to use humanoid robots in its factories in Germany. The Tier One auto parts supplier will use machines made by Humanoid, a UK-based AI and robotics company. As part of a strategic partnership, the company will purchase actuators from Schaeffler. Schaeffler plans to begin deploying wheeled humanoids by the end of this year, and eventually expects to have more than 1,000 machines in use globally by 2032.

“By supporting the phased deployment of humanoid systems in real manufacturing environments and serving as a preferred supplier of actuators, we are contributing to the industrial scaling of this technology while further strengthening our role in future-oriented motion solutions,” Jochen Schroeder, Ph.D., chief operating officer of Schaeffler. Artem Sokolov, CEO of Humanoid added: “We have already seen strong results from our proof of concept together, and now we are taking the next step to staged deployment. Moving into real-world operations is where the true value of humanoid robots is proven.”

Read more at Assembly

Tesla Repurposes Auto Lines To Produce Humanoid Robots

The assembly line that built the world’s first truly modern electric car has been decommissioned after 14 years. Tesla started mass production of the Model S at the former General Motors and Toyota factory in Fremont, California, in 2012, with the Model X SUV joining the lineup in 2015. That chapter is now officially over, as the part of the factory that used to assemble the two flagship EVs has been stripped out to make room for humanoid robots. Tesla shared a short video showing the decommissioning process of the original Model S and Model X assembly line, saying that the whole process took just 46 days.

Production of the Model S and Model X ended earlier this year, with the final units rolling off the now-decommissioned assembly line in May. On the same floor that churned out hundreds of thousands of EVs, Tesla will install factory equipment that will assemble its Optimus humanoid robot. Elon Musk, the company’s CEO, said at the beginning of the year that the new robot plant will eventually churn out one million units every year, though a concrete timeline has not been established yet. Tesla has claimed that Optimus will be “the biggest product ever made.” The company has been running a pilot production line at its Fremont factory, and has ramped up hiring efforts this year.

Read more at Inside EVs

Meat Giant JBS Axes 2040 Net-Zero Goal, Citing ‘Immense’ Execution Challenges

JBS, the world’s largest beef and poultry producer, will no longer aim to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions across its supply chain and global operations by 2040. The meat giant announced the cut in its latest sustainability report released Wednesday. The company’s updated sustainability strategy also no longer includes reduction goals for scope 3 emissions, which include all the indirect GHG emissions produced in its supply chain.

Instead, JBS will now focus on cutting scope 1 and 2 or direct emissions, which account for barely 3% of the company’s overall carbon footprint. Scope 3 emissions are responsible for the bulk of its emissions: the company generated over 184 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in scope 3 emissions last year. Chief Sustainability Officer Jason Weller said “the further we got into execution, the clearer it became that a Net Zero goal spanning hundreds of thousands of independent agricultural producers across tens of millions of hectares in dozens of countries — each with different practices, different baselines, and no standardized measurement infrastructure — is an immense challenge. Delivering a system-wide ambition at that scale depends on data, producer adoption, technology, and measurement infrastructure that are still developing across global agriculture.”

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Daily Market Update July 14, 2026

The August ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.03 at $2.86. The August ‘26 crude oil contract is up $2.62 at $80.76. 

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“There will come a time when everybody will know why, for what purpose, there is all this suffering, and there will be no more mysteries. But now we must live ... we must work, just work!”

Anton Chekhov - Russian Author and Playwright from his play 'The Three Sisters.' He died on this day in 1904.

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