Member Briefing July 13, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

NY Fed Economists: More Tariff Pass‑Through Is in the Pipeline

Last year, we found that most businesses had passed on at least some of these higher costs of higher tariffs to their customers through higher prices. Now, over a year later, have businesses finished adjusting prices, or do further tariff-induced price increases lie ahead? The NY Fed’s latest regional business surveys reveal that nearly half of firms that have paid tariffs still plan additional price increases to offset these costs, with some expecting to raise prices six months or more in the future.

47 percent of service firms and 44 percent of manufacturers surveyed that paid tariffs directly say they have more tariff-induced price increases to come. Among tariff-paying service firms, roughly 30 percent plan additional cost increases within the next six months, as do nearly 40 percent of tariff-paying manufacturers. Notably, 16 percent of service firms and 7 percent of manufacturers plan tariff-induced price increases more than six months from now. These results suggest that many businesses are still adjusting their prices, more than a year after tariffs were first introduced. It is not clear whether firms are responding to a single round of tariffs or to the sequence of increases that has unfolded over the past year or more. What is clear is that the adjustment has been gradual, in line with a growing body of research showing that tariffs pass through to consumer prices incrementally, building over the better part of a year rather than all at once.

Read more at The NY Fed

New York Sues 3M, Dupont, Others Over Toxic 'Forever Chemicals' In Consumer Goods

New York sued 3M, DuPont ‌and other companies on Thursday for harming the environment and people's health by selling "forever chemicals" that they knew were toxic, for use in consumer products. The state's Attorney General Letitia James accused the companies of hiding the risks of chemicals known as PFAS from ​the public for decades, even as they began phasing out some of the chemicals. She also said the ​defendants did nothing to materially reduce the public nuisance that their manufacture and sale ⁠of the chemicals contributed to for decades.

PFAS, or per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, ‌are ⁠found in hundreds of consumer and commercial products including cosmetics, non-stick pans and stain-resistant clothing. They are known as "forever chemicals" because they do not break down easily in the human body or environment. PFAS have been linked to negative health effects, opens new tab including higher cholesterol, low birth weight, reduced antibody response to vaccines, and kidney and testicular cancer.

Read more at Reuters

Cutting Tool Demand Strong Despite Inflation

U.S. manufacturers’ cutting tool purchases fell for a second consecutive month in May, down -7.4% from April to $239.8 million in the latest summary. That total is 15.2% higher than the May 2025 result, and it brings the current year-to-date (January-May 2026) total for cutting-tool shipments to $1.2 billion, a 16.8% improvement over the comparable period of last year. “Shipments dipped in May compared to the previous two months, which were very high and broke records, but were still very strong in nearly all categories reported,” observed Jack Burley, chairman of AMT’s Cutting Tool Product Group and president of Big Daishowa.

Manufacturing activity continues to show strength, with a favorable outlook for machined-part demand among construction machinery, defense, and aerospace manufacturers. “Carbide-based tools, such as drills and end mills, showed some noticeable increases in cost per unit – a clear indication that the carbide crisis, due to the lack of raw material, has increased costs for users,” AMT’s Burley reported. “The demand on the metal cutting industry to increase output has strained the already scarce supply of tungsten. I don’t think we have reached the peak of higher prices for new tools yet, and this may be the right time for users to evaluate their efficiency and improve tool life.”

Read more at American Machinist

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

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US Temporarily Extend Work Permits For Haitians, Other Immigrants from 6 Other Nations, With Temporary Protected Status

U.S. President Donald Trump's administration on Friday extended work permits for hundreds of thousands of immigrants with temporary protected status from ​Haiti and six other countries, hours before they were due to ‌expire. The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, which is part of the Department of Homeland Security, said work permits for Haitians with temporary protected status will now expire on ​July 24. Permits for recipients from Ethiopia, Syria, Somalia, Yemen, ​South Sudan and Myanmar will end in a week's time.

The U.S. ⁠Supreme Court ruled last month that the Trump administration could end temporary ​protected status for Haitians and Syrians. Rights advocates and community ​members have expressed fear that the Supreme Court's decision could strip hundreds of ​thousands of people of work authorization and protection from deportation. Labor groups had urged an ‌extension ⁠of the work permissions, arguing that their removal could result in "chaos in workplaces and disrupt key industries." Many affected individuals have been in the country for decades and are key employees in industries including manufacturing.

Read more at Reuters

Fed’s Warsh Names Leadership for Five New Task Forces

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh tapped a broad and ​intellectually diverse group of economists and former central bankers to oversee the five task forces he is establishing to review the ‌U.S. central bank's operations, covering technical issues like management of its balance sheet as well as forward-leaning ones like the impact of artificial intelligence. Former heads of the central banks of Brazil, England and India are among the appointees, as is Nobel economics prize winner Thomas Sargent, currently a professor of economics at New York University, who will join the panel on ​inflation.

The group includes people from across the policy spectrum, with ⁠Harvard University economics professor Raj Chetty, a pioneer in the use of alternate and real-time data in analyzing how households and neighborhoods are faring, ​helping to lead a panel on data, famed tech investor Marc Andreessen among three co-leads of a panel on productivity and jobs, and Greg Mankiw, ​who was chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the George W. Bush administration, co-leading a task force on inflation.

Read more at Reuters

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham Dies At 71 After ‘Brief And Sudden Illness’

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who was elected to the Senate in 2002 and was a close political ally of President Donald Trump’s, has died, his office confirmed early Sunday. He was 71. Graham was chairman of the Senate Budget Committee and was seeking a fifth six-year Senate term in November. He was one of the most well-known members of the chamber and a key voice within the party on defense and foreign policy. Graham died Saturday night “from a brief and sudden illness,” his office said in a statement.

Graham grew up in the small town of Central, South Carolina, where his parents ran a restaurant and pool hall. The first of his family to go to college, he earned a law degree from the University of South Carolina before embarking on a career in the military, serving in the U.S. Air Force as a lawyer. Graham served a total of 33 years in the Air Force, Air Force Reserve and South Carolina Air National Guard, fulfilling his reserve duties while holding his seat in Congress. He retired in 2015 at the rank of colonel. Graham first arrived in Congress as a member of the House of Representatives, where he served from 1995 to 2003. He ran for Senate in 2002, winning the South Carolina seat previously held by the retiring Strom Thurmond.

Read more at NBC News

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Whole Milk. Skim. Coconut Milk. Soy. What’s The Healthiest Type Of Milk? Here’s How They Compare.

A trip to the dairy section of the grocery store has never been more confusing. For decades, consumers were advised to choose low-fat milk instead of whole milk to reduce their intake of saturated fat, which has been linked to elevated levels of artery-clogging LDL cholesterol and an increase in the risk of cardiovascular disease and stroke.In recent years, however, emerging research has suggested that saturated fat from dairy products isn't as harmful as previously believed.

And lots of new options have emerged too. Cow’s milk no longer reigns supreme and the grocery aisles are lined with milks made from the likes of oat, coconuts, nuts, seeds and rice. “I don’t think plant-based milks should be given a halo because they come from plants—they’re not necessarily healthier,” says Salge Blake. “You need to make sure they’re fortified with calcium and vitamin D and you need to look for added sugars. With cow’s milk, there are no added sugars unless it’s chocolate milk.” So which one should you choose? Here’s how some of the most popular milks stack up nutritionally.

Read more at National Geographic

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

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Training

Strategies for Managing, Coaching and Dealing with Difficult People, In Person at iPark 87 in Kingston.  July, 15, 8:30 - 4:30.

Lean Six Sigma Yellow Belt, In Person at DCC Fishkill.  October 13, 14, and 15 8:30 - 4:30.

Trade Wars

Micron Ups US Manufacturing, Supply Chain Pledge To $253B

Micron Technology is increasing its U.S. commitment to spend more than $250 billion through 2035, fueled by soaring demand for its dynamic random-access memory products, according to a press release Thursday. Additionally, the company is spending up to $3 billion to fortify the domestic semiconductor supply chain. That investment isn’t part of Micron’s increased pledge. The announcement comes as Micron completed worksite less than six months ahead of schedule, shifting to vertical construction of its $100 billion semiconductor fabrication campus in Clay, New York.

The investment includes $500 million to expand manufacturing and research and development capabilities at GlobalWafer’s 300mm raw silicon wafer plant in Sherman, Texas. The two companies also inked a 10-year supply agreement and plan on collaborating to develop wafer technologies and processes to support future semiconductor manufacturing requirements, according to the press release.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Deere Settles Lawsuit By US FTC, States Over Equipment Repair Restrictions

Deere (DE.N), opens new tab agreed on Wednesday to settle a lawsuit by the Federal Trade Commission and five U.S. states accusing the farm equipment maker of illegally ​requiring farmers to use its network of authorized dealers for repairs, rather ‌than use independent service providers or do the work themselves. The Moline, Illinois-based company did not admit or ​deny wrongdoing in settling with the FTC, Illinois, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Its settlement requires approval by U.S. District Judge Iain Johnston in Rockford, Illinois. Deere agreed in April to pay $99 million to settle ​related private class-action litigation.

The settlement requires Deere to give farmers and independent providers access to the same equipment diagnostic and other repair resources available to authorized dealers ​for 10 years, and access to new repair resources once more than 50% ​of authorized dealers have access. Deere will also instruct authorized dealers to provide ⁠those resources to farmers and independent providers who want them. It will pay $1 million ​to cover the states' legal fees and costs.

Read more at Reuters

Ford, GM Sign Memory Supply Agreements With Micron

Ford Motor Co. and General Motors each signed supplier agreements with Micron Technology this month to support next-generation vehicle production.For GM, Micron will provide low-power double-data-rate memory, NOR and universal flash storage NAND products, per a July 1 press release. Additionally, the automaker will collaborate with Micron on future memory and storage requirements. Micron will supply Ford with memory and storage technology, although it did not detail specific products in a press release announcing the agreement. The company declined to share more details when reached by Supply Chain Dive.

Numerous manufacturers are contending with a memory sourcing crunch as artificial intelligence applications and the data centers that support them gobble up supply. This is particularly true for automakers leaning into software-defined vehicles. Through these latest memory sourcing deals, Ford and GM are avoiding such risk by securing long-term supply reliability, according to Sanjay Mehrotra, president and CEO at Micron.

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

EV Transition Challenges Auto Supply Chain Resilience, Moody’s Says

Electric vehicles may have a lot less complexity and moving parts compared to internal combustion engine powered vehicles, but the reverse is true when it comes to an automaker’s supply chain. While the ICE vehicle manufacturer has close control over much of its supply chain, the EV automaker is not so lucky, Vitaliano Tobruk, Moody’s supply chain industry practice lead, said in an online interview with WardsAuto.

A June 1 Moody’s analysis said the auto industry is facing several major structural pressures, making supplier risk more interconnected and harder to assess through traditional, point-in-time approaches. “In the past companies were also able to plan with stability, demand was predictable, and so this means that supply chain didn’t change direction too often,” said Tobruk. Legacy automakers have the added complexity of having to run different supply chains, for ICE, hybrid and EV powertrains. “So, this means that a supplier has also to support three different supply chains and, sometimes, investments are also split among those chains,” said Tobruk.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Honeywell Aero To Develop More Defense Products For Europe Outside US Export Controls

U.S. supplier Honeywell Aerospace is looking to add more products designed without restricted U.S. technologies ‌as mounting European defense spending drives demand for parts free from possible export roadblocks. NATO leaders have unveiled arms deals worth tens of billions of dollars at a gathering in Turkey this week, as they face U.S. demands to spend more to defend Europe and due to pressure from Russia's war in Ukraine. Some European defense ​companies and North American suppliers are also expected to discuss demand for parts not governed by U.S. International Traffic in ​Arms Regulations (ITAR) at the world's largest air show later this month.

There is increasing demand among European countries ⁠for ITAR-free systems due to concerns over Washington potentially blocking the re-export of sensitive U.S. components embedded in foreign weapons, according to ​defense officials and industry executives. Honeywell Aerospace is set to announce a new ITAR-free product for the international defense sector at the Farnborough ​Airshow in Britain later this month, a source told Reuters. Honeywell Aerospace sees international exposure growing for its defense business, which accounts for about 40% of company revenue and includes navigation systems and actuators for missiles. Last year, international sales accounted for about 30% of the company's defense business, up ​from around 18% in 2020, Honeywell ​Aerospace said.

Read more at Reuters

TSMC Posts Record Revenue In Second Quarter On AI Demand

TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, reported on Monday second-quarter revenue that rose 36% from a year ​earlier to a record high on surging interest in artificial ‌intelligence applications. Revenue in the April-June period of this year came in at T$1.27 trillion ($39.62 billion), according to Reuters calculations, slightly above a T$1.264 trillion ​LSEG SmartEstimate drawn from 20 analysts.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, is ​a major supplier to companies including Nvidia and Apple. On ⁠its last earnings call in April, the company predicted second-quarter revenue of ​between $39 billion and $40.2 billion. The company gives its forecast only in ​U.S. dollars and not Taiwan dollars. For June alone, TSMC reported that revenue rose 67.9% year-on-year to T$442.68 billion, which was up 6.2% compared with the previous ​month. The data was originally due last Friday, but it was ​delayed due to the impending arrival of Typhoon Bavi, which shut financial markets in ‌Taipei ⁠that day.

Read more at Reuters

Mitsubishi Motors to Build And Deploy Humanoid Robots

Mitsubishi Motors has signed a memorandum of understanding with Highlanders, a University of Tokyo robotics startup, to jointly develop humanoid robots for its manufacturing operations and explore mass production at the Kyoto Plant from early 2027. The agreement is the first between an automaker and a humanoid robotics developer to encompass mass production.

Japan’s manufacturing sector faces growing pressure from labour shortages and increasingly complex production demands, making flexible automated systems a rising priority for the industry. The partnership addresses both: Mitsubishi Motors will deploy Highlanders robots at its own facilities to build operational expertise, while Highlanders gains a credible route to scaled production through Mitsubishi Motors’ established capabilities in mass-production engineering, quality assurance, and mechatronics control. Currently unused buildings at the Kyoto Plant are being assessed for the production programme. Mitsubishi Motors has already invested in Highlanders and expects to invest further.

Read more at Automotive World

Airbus Sees New Routes and Aging Fleets Driving Demand

Airbus identified a combination of airlines’ desire to expand their networks with longer, thinner routes connecting smaller cities and a growing need to replace aging aircraft as key factors behind rising demand in its latest Global Market Forecast (GMF) released on July 8. Between 2026 and 2045, the European airframer is now predicting 42,060 passenger airliner deliveries in response to a projected twofold increase in revenue passenger kilometers to 21.3 trillion. For Airbus, these GMF data points were the cue for a sales pitch on the route-launching potential for its newest narrowbody offering, the A220, which it said has made more than 400 new thin routes viable in North America, Europe, and Africa.

Part of this demand curve comes from people living and working outside their home country to make trips home to visit friends and relatives. This trend, Da Costa explained, is partly responsible for the expansion of direct air services between smaller cities, allowing passengers to avoid airline hubs. In 2025, according to Airbus, 55% of all city pairs were new routes that had not existed 20 years earlier. Da Costa pointed to an additional 532 airports with scheduled airline services that were not on the global route network in 2005, including Sucre in Brazil, Daocheng in China, and the Vietnamese resort destination of Thanh Hoa.

Read more at Aire Industry News

Walmart Inks Nuclear Energy Deal To Power Illinois Warehouse

Walmart entered a long-term power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy last month that will provide the retailer with nuclear energy, environmental attributes and energy capacity to support its operations in Illinois, according to a June 23 press release. The PPA will give Walmart up to 176 megawatts of nuclear-generated electricity over two 15-year periods beginning in 2029 and 2030, according to the release issued by Constellation. Constellation — the nation’s largest producer of clean, zero-emissions energy — said the deal will provide “enough new power to the grid” for the perishable distribution center Walmart is developing in the state.

The deal is Walmart’s first nuclear PPA, and Constellation said in the release that its “among the first of its kind between a large retailer and a nuclear energy facility in the United States.” While nuclear PPAs have increased in recent years, the shift has largely been led by tech companies working to meet the energy demands of artificial intelligence. The retail giant will get power from Constellation’s Dresden Clean Energy Center in Illinois, which Constellation relicensed in December for operation at its generators through 2049 and 2051, according to the release. The deal includes 30 MW of expanded generation capacity for the power plant.

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

Daily Market Update July 10, 2026

The August ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.04 at $2.97. The August ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.20 at $72.28. 

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“Without training, they lacked knowledge.

Without knowledge, they lacked confidence.

Without confidence, they lacked victory.”

Julius Caesar - Roman Emperor and Military Commander who was born on this day in 100 BC.

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