Member Briefing July 9, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

IMF Says Global Economy Weathered Iran War Better Than Expected

The International Monetary Fund reduced its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% on Wednesday, citing continued risks from the Middle East war, trade fragmentation and potential market corrections in artificial intelligence expectations. The global lender said the world economy avoided a more severe downturn from the conflict, as demand-driven momentum in the technology sector helped offset a war-related decline in energy supplies. Growth is expected to recover to 3.4% in 2027, though this remains below the 3.5% average recorded in 2024 and 2025.

  • The IMF increased its 2026 headline inflation projection by 0.3 percentage points to 4.7% from April, while forecasting a decline to 3.9% next year.
  • The IMF maintained its 2026 U.S. growth forecast at 2.3% and raised its 2027 projection by 0.1 percentage point to 2.2%.
  • The euro area's 2026 growth forecast was lowered to 0.9% from 1.1% in April, with the 2027 forecast unchanged at 1.2%.
  • Japan's 2026 growth forecast decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 0.6%, while the 2027 forecast increased by the same amount to 0.7%.
  • China's growth is now expected to reach 4.6% in 2026, up from the April forecast of 4.4%, with 2027 growth projected at 4.1%.
  • India received a small downgrade to 6.4% for 2026 from 6.5% in April, though the IMF raised its 2027 forecast to 6.7% from 6.5%.
  • The Middle East and Central Asia region saw its growth forecast cut by 1.2 percentage points to 0.7% from April, while the 2027 forecast was raised by 1.9 percentage points to 6.5%.

Read more at Reuters

Fed Officials Were Split On Direction Of Interest Rates At June Meeting, Minutes Show

Federal Reserve officials were split last month about the future of interest rates, with policymakers entertaining scenarios in either direction, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday. In Kevin Warsh’s first meeting June 16-17 as chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, participants saw outcomes where inflation could ease and allow lower rates, while others envisioned a scenario where price increases stay elevated and lead to hikes.

The minutes did not elaborate on any drama that had taken place and outlined divergent views from members without a bias to which way the committee was leaning. The dot-plot grid of individual members’ expectations, in which Warsh did not participate, narrowly tilted toward one rate hike this year, then a cut in each of the following two years. Asked to judge their most likely scenario, “many participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year,” the minutes stated.

Read more at CNBC

JPMorgan Plans to Target Small-Company Deals as Part of M&A Push

JPMorgan Chase is setting its sights on small-company deals for its next leg of growth in investment banking. The firm is establishing a new team of investment bankers focused on small-cap companies valued at between $100 million and $500 million, executives said. The effort builds on JPMorgan’s work on deals for middle-market companies with valuations of roughly $500 million to $2 billion. That initiative now brings in over $1 billion in revenue for the bank each year, with year-over-year growth of more than 20%, according to John Richert, who leads the bank’s midcap investment banking initiative and will help oversee the small-cap team.

The firm sees smaller-company deals as an opportunity in which its major competitors have yet to deploy resources, Richert said. The goal is to expand relationships that JPMorgan has with smaller companies in commercial banking and elsewhere.  Smaller-deal activity is picking up, in part, because many founder-led businesses started by baby boomers are in the midst of succession planning, which will culminate in a wave of sale activity, according to Richert. At the same time, he said, there has been a flood of capital into lower- to middle-market private-equity funds.

Read more at The WSJ

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

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Congress Faces Its Own Summer Heat Dome

 The sweltering Fourth of July weekend is over, but for both parties in House and Senate leadership, the heat is still cranked up. Both chambers are likely to return next Monday to the same sweat-inducing tangle of legislative problems that left them stumped as they headed out of town at the end of June. Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is looking for a solution so “irresistible” that his fellow Republicans will have to accept it — but the numbers are working against him. For one thing, August is fast approaching, leaving just a couple weeks in Washington before lawmakers depart for an even longer summer break. And as Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., has said all along, mathematical realities can’t be changed in the Senate, even when it comes to the White House-backed voter ID bill dubbed the SAVE America Act.

Thune has said repeatedly that he does not have the 60 votes to advance the sweeping election package to Trump’s desk or the support within his conference to sidestep the filibuster. And that math equation hasn’t changed, though Trump’s supporters online and on the Hill continue to push for other tactics, like trying a “talking filibuster” in the Senate or relying on the budget reconciliation process to get the job done.

Read more at Roll Call

New York’s Medicaid Fraud Unit Defunded By Inspector General Following Investigation

Attorney General Letitia James’ latest fight with the Trump administration focuses on New York’s Medicaid Fraud Control Unit, a federally funded agency housed in James’ office. On Tuesday, the inspector general of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, T. March Bell, accused the unit, known as a MFCU, of doing a poor job of enforcement and suspended its funding for at least three months. In response, James asserted that her office is “leading the nation in anti-fraud efforts” and vowed to fight what she called an “outrageous” attack.

A review of the available statistics, however, suggests that Bell’s criticism is well founded. The performance of James’ MFCU – when adjusted for the scale of New York’s $124 billion Medicaid program – ranks among the worst in the U.S. on a range of benchmarks. Calculations using federal data during James’ term as attorney general, from 2019 to 2025, show that New York was 49th for investigations per billion spent, 51st for indictments per billion and 51st for convictions per billion.

Read more at The Yonkers Times

ObamaCare Premiums Poised For Another Big Hike

The cost of ObamaCare coverage could shoot up even higher next year as insurers are proposing a median increase of 14 percent, according to an analysis of initial filings from KFF. If the preliminary filings hold, it would mark the second-straight year of double-digit premium increases, putting customers on the hook for thousands of dollars more in health costs. Between 2025 and 2027, Affordable Care Act marketplace premiums will have increased by one third, the analysis showed.

The reasons for the increase were similar across all the 77 insurers that had filed preliminary rates ahead of the July 15 deadline: health care costs are broadly more expensive, and health inflation keeps rising. In addition, Republicans in Congress let the law’s enhanced premium tax credits expire at the end of last year. The higher costs caused many healthier enrollees to leave the exchanges in 2026, leaving behind a smaller number of enrollees who are somewhat sicker and more expensive to cover on average. The sicker risk pool drove insurers to raise premiums by 4 percentage points in 2026 and is expected to lead to a similar increase in 2027.

Read more at The Hill

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Mental Health Association Offers Free Employee Wellness Survey

Mental Health America is offering a free survey and analytics tool to help employers measure their employees’ well-being. The survey and dashboard tool is designed to help employers capture important employee feedback to identify key wellness patterns across the organization, inform strategies to support employee well-being, and benchmark progress toward creating a healthier workplace. 

Part of the non-profit organization's mission is to help employers address the reasons why workplace mental health strategies often fall short. The top reasons for this are:

  • 62% of employers have limited capacity or resources.
  • 56% lack the data to guide their mental health initiatives.
  • 52% have mental health initiatives that fall on a single person or team.

To provide samples of organizations that are best-in-class employers when it comes to mental health programs, MHA has a program, Bell Seal for Workplace Mental Health. It provides evidence-based best practices to help organizations build healthier, more supportive workplaces.

Read more, access the survey, at EHS Today

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

SOLD OUT! TEE SIGNS STILL AVAILABLE Council of Industry Golf Outing - Monday August 24th 11:30 AM - 7:30 PM. The Powelton Club, Newburgh.

Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

C3POA - Key Perpectives on your CMMC Compiance Journey - Presented by Nick DeLena, PKF O'Connor Davies.

CMMC for Legacy Equipment: Securing Specialized Assets with Zero Trust Micro-Enclaves - Presented by Marc Hoover, Trout Software.

See previous episodes here!

Training

Risk Management - Environment Health & Safety, In Person at iPark 87 in Kingston.  July 8, 8:30 - 4:30.

Strategies for Managing, Coaching and Dealing with Difficult People, In Person at iPark 87 in Kingston.  July, 15, 8:30 - 4:30.

Lean Six Sigma Yellow Belt, In Person at DCC Fishkill.  October 13, 14, and 15 8:30 - 4:30.

Trade Wars

Apple Commits $30 Billion To Broadcom For U.S. Chipmaking Push

Apple said it’s expanding its partnership with chipmaker Broadcom in a multi-year deal expected to exceed $30 billion, marking the iPhone maker’s largest U.S. manufacturing commitment to date. The agreement, announced by Apple on Wednesday, will lead to the production of more than 15 billion U.S.-made chips and includes a $1.5 billion expansion of Broadcom’s facility in Fort Collins, Colorado. Apple didn’t provide a timeline for when the new capacity will come online.

Broadcom has long supplied Apple with connectivity components, but the new agreement deepens that relationship around U.S.-made custom silicon. Apple said Broadcom will make wireless components used to help devices connect to cellular, Wi-Fi and Bluetooth networks. Tim Cook, Apple’s outgoing CEO said the components built in Fort Collins are “essential” to the performance and connectivity Apple customers expect, and he thanked President Donald Trump and his administration for supporting the project. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said Apple’s commitment will help the chipmaker expand its manufacturing footprint in Fort Collins.

Read more at CNBC

Feds Host Defense Industrial Base Accelerator Event August 25-27 in Philadelphia

The Defense Industrial Base Accelerator (DIBX) is the primary Department of War event connecting national security startups, investors, and defense leaders. The 2026 event takes place from August 25–27 at the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia, featuring a live $25M pitch competition and supply chain workshops.The accelerator focuses on solving supply chain bottlenecks and driving new technology.

The event highlights three critical national security areas:

  • Strategic and Critical Minerals: Finding secure materials for hardware.
  • Expeditionary Manufacturing of Electronics: Quick and flexible computer-part production in the field.
  • Fuel Distribution: Delivering energy safely to remote or combat locations.

The three-day program includes facilitated direct 1-on-1 meetings with Pentagon officials and private investors. Attendees can also join the Solutions Proving Ground, an interactive space where founders and government requirement owners troubleshoot manufacturing issues in real time.

Read more and secure your spot at the DIB Accelerator 2026 Page or the ATI Events Portal.

Nationwide Shortage Of Skilled Workers Threatens US Semiconductor Plant Construction

A growing shortage of skilled technicians, engineers, and construction workers is threatening to delay semiconductor fab construction across the country, according to projections from the Semiconductor Industry Association and Oxford Economics. Of the roughly 115,000 new jobs the industry needs filled by 2030, about 67,000 may go unfilled. That’s more than half the workforce the entire initiative depends on.

The 67,000 unfilled jobs projected by 2030 represent the single biggest variable between the CHIPS Act delivering on its promise and becoming an expensive lesson in planning. Partnerships between chipmakers, community colleges, and apprenticeship programs have been launched to address the gap. By mid-2026, though, these initiatives were still struggling to produce graduates at the scale required.

Read more at Crypto Briefing

Etihad Nearing Deal To Order 10 Boeing 787 Jets, Sources Say

Abu Dhabi's ​Etihad Airways is nearing a deal ‌to order 10 Boeing (BA.N), opens new tab 787 wide-body jets, with an announcement expected ​as early as this ​month's Farnborough Airshow, industry sources said ⁠on Wednesday. Etihad and Boeing ​declined comment. The sources cautioned that ​a deal could not be guaranteed as negotiations continue in the run-up ​to the July 20-24 event ​in Britain.

Etihad CEO Antonoaldo Neves told ‌Reuters ⁠last month that the airline was considering ordering a double-digit number of wide-body planes, declining to specify further. Etihad is ​restoring flights ​after ⁠making cuts in March as the U.S.-Israeli war on ​Iranraised fuel prices. Europe's Airbus said earlier ​that ⁠Middle East airlines were recovering strongly amid the region's fragile ceasefire, ⁠with Gulf ​hubs returning toward normal traffic ​volumes.

Read more at Reuters

Why Smucker’s $5 Billion Bet on the Twinkie Flopped

In 2024, Mark Smucker, chief executive of food giant J.M. Smucker, took the stage at an industry conference and bit into a golden, creamy Twinkie. “Tastes like growth,” he said. His company had just acquired Hostess, the maker of Twinkies, in a $5 billion deal and it seemed like a coup. The Covid-19 pandemic had supercharged America’s snacking habit: Some 70% of consumers were eating at least two per day, Smucker said. Buying the owner of Ding Dongs and Donettes gave the jam-and-jelly maker entry into a $65 billion market for snacks. Smucker had beat out other suitors for Hostess, most notably General Mills. Three years later, the deal isn’t tasting quite so sweet.

Some problems Smucker is facing are bedeviling other food makers. Snacking slowed as people cut discretionary spending, and weight-loss drugs and the “Make America Healthy Again” movement gained traction. U.S. snack sales by units are down 4% in the past four years, according to data from market-research firm NIQ. Sales of sweet snacks, generally, have dropped 17%, the data showed. But some are of the company’s own making. Hostess donuts and cupcakes, it turned out, are surprisingly unlike Smucker jams, peanut butter and coffee. When it folded Hostess into its business, Smucker weakened key Hostess operating strengths tied to distribution and sales, several former and current executives and employees say.

Read more at the WSJ

Food Giants Defeat Lawsuit Calling Ultraprocessed Products Addictive

A judge permanently dismissed a lawsuit alleging Kraft-Heinz, PepsiCo and other food giants failed to warn consumers of the risks associated with ultraprocessed products. The U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania ruled plaintiff Brian Martinez could not definitively prove that packaged food products were the reason for his type 2 diabetes and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Martinez had amended his lawsuit, initially filed in December 2024, to include more details about his ultraprocessed food consumption after another judge dismissed an initial complaint last year for being “woefully deficient.” The latest ruling prevents him from amending the lawsuit again.

The correlation between the rise in UPFs and the rise in childhood diseases like Type 2 Diabetes does not amount to causation in the plaintiff’s individual circumstances, the court ruled. In the dismissal, the judge wrote that the plaintiff “raises serious concerns about the UPF industry and its effects on children’s health,” but the law does not allow for courts to hold an entire industry liable. The National Association Manufacturers celebrated the Pennsylvania ruling, calling the case “a misguided effort to weaponize the tort system against food and beverage manufacturers.”

Read more at Food Dive

Blue Origin Valued At $130 Billion In First Public Fundraising Round

Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin is raising about $10 billion, in its first outside funding round that will value the rocket company at $130 billion, sources told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin. Bezos is set to contribute $2 billion into the round, along with about $4 billion from hedge fund Coatue Management, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the details are private. Coatue ​Management, a big asset manager, is expected to lead the round with a $4 ​billion commitment, the report said, adding that Bezos is set to contribute ⁠an additional $2 billion.

SpaceX, with operations spanning rockets, satellites and AI, secured an about $1.75 trillion valuation in its public market debut, after raising about $86 billion in the world's largest IPO following ​years of fundraising to finance Elon Musk's AI and space ambitions. Founded by Bezos in ​September 2000, about 18 months before Musk started SpaceX, Blue Origin has largely been funded by the Amazon ‌founder. ⁠It has secured multibillion-dollar NASA and U.S. Space Force contracts, including work on the Artemis lunar program and national security launches, but still trails SpaceX by a wide margin in launch cadence and revenue.

Read more at CNBC

Airbus, MTU Detail Hydrogen Fuel Cell JV Plan

Airbus and MTU Aero Engines will launch a new joint venture (JV) to develop and commercialise a hydrogen fuel cell electric aircraft engine, with operations expected to begin next year. The new non-binding agreement follows on from a 2025 memorandum of understanding (MOU), with the aircraft maker and engine manufacturer planning to combine their engineering and manufacturing competencies. The JV would look to develop, design, test, and certify fuel cell propulsion systems for aircraft on an undisclosed time scale.

Aside from concerns about the energy efficiency of using hydrogen as a fuel, the high volume storage needs of the gas could require an entire reworking of existing airframes. Concerns have also been raised around the ground logistics of fuel supply to and dispensing at airports. In the near-term, airlines, governments, and aviation bodies remain focused on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with mandates and regulations spreading globally.

Read more at Gas World 

Daily Market Update Jun 30, 2026

The August ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.06 at $3.24. The August ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.35 at $71.10. 

Read more at NRG

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Quote of the Day

A young man is a theory, an old man is a fact.

E. W. Howe - American Inventor of the Lockstitch Sewing Machine who was born on this day in 1819.

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