Member Briefing July 8, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

U.S. Trade Deficit Grew in May But Lower than Economist Forecasts

The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in May as an artificial ​intelligence investment boom helped to drive ‌imports of capital goods to a record high, suggesting that trade remained a drag on ​gross domestic product in the second ​quarter. The trade gap jumped 42.2% to $77.6 ⁠billion, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic ​Analysis and Census Bureau said on Tuesday. ​Economists polled by Reuters had forecasted the deficit at $78.5 billion.

  • Exports in crude oil rose by $2 billion.
  • Imports increased 3.3% to $395.3 billion, with imports ​of capital goods soaring to a ​record high $128.0 billion.
  • As the build out of data centers tied to the uptick in artificial intelligence continues, imports of semiconductors increased by $1 billion.
  • Other imports were seen in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines, which increased $2.2 billion.
  • Trade has subtracted ​from GDP for two straight quarters. ​The ⁠Atlanta Federal Reserve's model is currently forecasting GDP increasing at a 1.2% annualized rate ⁠in ​the second quarter.

Read more at Reuters

Manufacturing Job Gains Slow in June, Off by 38,000 Over the Past 12 Months

Manufacturing employment increased by 3,000 in June after declining by 2,000 in May. Meanwhile, nonfarm payroll employment rose by 57,000 in June, coming in below expectations. At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked down from 4.3% to 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate stepped down 0.3% to 61.5%, the lowest level in more than five years. On the other hand, the collective job gains in April and May of 7,000 were revised downward by 10,000 jobs to a decline of 3,000 jobs. Manufacturing employment is down 38,000 over the year.

Durable goods manufacturing employment rose by 6,000 in June, while nondurable goods employment fell by 3,000. The most significant gain in manufacturing in June occurred in fabricated metal product manufacturing, which added 3,400 jobs over the month. Meanwhile, the most significant loss occurred in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing, which shed 3,900 jobs over the month.

Read more at The BLS

U.S. Services-Sector Activity Continued to Expand in June

U.S. services-sector activity continued to expand last month, a survey of managers has found. The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers index for services providers was 54 in June compared with 54.5 in May. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a reading of 54.3. A reading above 50 signifies economic growth, while one below 50 indicates contraction.

  • The new-orders index continued to expand at a slightly slower pace than in May.
  • The supplier-deliveries index was in its 19th consecutive month of expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance, the report said.
  • The prices index decreased to 67.7 in June, its first time below 70 since February. Diesel, gasoline, oil and related commodities were once again most frequently mentioned as up in price in June—and cited as down in price from other respondents, said the report.
  • Meanwhile, the employment index expanded for the first time in four months.

Read more at The WSJ

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

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NATO Summit Centers On F-35 Sales, Defense Deals, Spending. Lockheed Boosts Production.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday arrived in Turkey to attend a summit for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Representatives for NATO members during the two-day meeting are expected to discuss spending commitments, support for Ukraine against Russia, and the U.S. war with Iran, according to reports. Trump is also weighing a sale of F-35 jets to Turkey and said he would lift key sanctions on the country. NATO detailed its own defense deals.

  • NATO announced multiple defense agreements Tuesday to coincide with the summit. NATO confirmed it selected Saab's GlobalEye Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) platform to replace the alliance's aging fleet of 14 Boeing (BA) E-3 Sentries, FlightGlobal reported.
  • NATO plans to buy up to 10 of the aircraft via a multinational purchase from 11 member states, valued at roughly $4.5 billion.
  • Denmark, Finland, Germany and Norway combined to purchase five of Northrop Grumman's (NOC) MQ-4C Tritons, a long-range maritime surveillance drone. NATO currently operates a fleet of five Triton aircraft, which it calls the RQ-4D Phoenix.
  • Additionally, seven NATO members launched an initiative to establish pooled operations with a fleet of Airbus (EADSY) A400M tactical transport planes. The group includes Belgium, Croatia, France, Poland, Spain, Turkey and the U.K.
  • Finland also joined the coalition of NATO members using the Airbus A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport. The coalition includes Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic.

Read more at Investor’s Business Daily

Is the Industrial Base on a Wartime Footing? A Progress Report

By initiating and incentivizing large-scale public and private investments, deploying novel industrial policy tools, and undertaking significant defense acquisition reforms, the Department of Defense (DOD) has made meaningful progress toward fostering an industrial base for wartime readiness. Roughly 10,000 new firms have entered the market in the past two years and nontraditional companies received over $120 billion in contract obligations in FY 2025, adding competition and innovation to the sector. Munitions contract obligations have risen 330 percent since FY 2010. Spurred by this increased demand and depleted inventories, the Pentagon is signing multiyear agreements with munitions producers and suppliers on a historic scale.  

Yet industrial plans are not the same as results, and isolated bursts of investment are not the same as institutionalized industrial power. The time scales needed to deliver several critical munitions, for example, depleted after the war in Iran, continue to stretch more than three years.. While new entrants to the industrial base promise advanced technologies at low cost and high volume, moving defense innovations from concept to contract takes a sustained government demand signal and continued cooperation with private firms. In short, getting on a wartime footing takes time. It must be built and maintained through strong and consistent budgetary demand signals, enduring coordination within supplier networks, effective coordination mechanisms and incentive structures between government and industry, and strong U.S. collaboration with allies and partners.

Read more at The Center for Strategic & International Studies

McConnell’s Health Emergency Sparks Questions On Whether He Will Return To Senate

Emergency dispatch audio indicating that someone at Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) home in Washington, D.C., suffered “cardiac arrest” earlier this month has raised questions about when the former GOP leader will return to the Senate or whether he will return at all. McConnell’s office has provided few details about his health status but reported a few days ago that he “appreciates the outpouring of support he’s receiving while he continues his recovery in the hospital.” His office on Thursday also said the 84-year-old senator “continues to improve, and is working closely with his staff on Kentucky and Senate matters while the Senate is out of session.”

The incident has fueled speculation this week that McConnell may not return to the Senate again this year. At the same time, it has raised questions about whether there would need to be a special election to fill his seat during the final months of 2026, when GOP leaders are still hoping to pass an emergency supplemental defense spending package and possibly a third budget reconciliation bill as well. The Kentucky Legislature in 2024 passed House Bill 622, which stripped the state’s Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, of the power to fill a vacant U.S. Senate seat — a power enjoyed by most other states’ governors.

Read more at The Hill

More Policy and Politics Headlines

The Next Chapter Of Obesity And Type 2 Diabetes Care: ADA 2026 Signals A More Personalized Future

For more than 15 years, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have shaped the obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D) treatment landscape through successive waves of GLP-1 innovation. The market has progressed from first-generation agents, such as liraglutide and dulaglutide, to the blockbuster successors, semaglutide and tirzepatide, and more recently to the emergence of oral therapies, including oral semaglutide (approved December 2025) and orforglipron (approved April 2026). Recently the American Diabetes Association 2026 conference shined a spotlight on the next wave of innovation in obesity and T2D care. Here are some trends to watch.

Continued Exploration Of Oral Options - Oral therapies may appeal to patients seeking a convenient daily pill alternative to the weekly injectable treatments that currently dominate the obesity market, potentially improving accessibility and treatment uptake.

Long-Acting GLP-1s: Less Frequent Dosing - While oral therapies may appeal to patients who prefer pills over injections, the requirement for daily administration may not align with all patient lifestyles. An alternative strategy is to reduce dosing frequency through longer acting injectable therapies.

Triple Agonists: Efficacy Is King? - For patients prioritizing maximal weight loss, triple agonists may represent the next frontier in treatment of obesity. ADA 2026 featured data from leading candidates from Novo Nordisk’s and Eli Lilly’s portfolios, demonstrating substantial efficacy in both weight reduction and obesity-related comorbidities.

Lessons For Discovery And Early Development - Despite the high efficacy of incretin therapies (GLP-1/GIP/GCG-targeting), trials to date point to a small percentage of non-responders that may even gain weight on treatment. These patients likely require non-incretin-based approaches to weight loss, though limited novel mechanisms are being evaluated to date.

Diverse Options For The Future - Healthcare is evolving toward a more holistic treatment paradigm, with increasing emphasis on overall health outcomes, including the management of comorbidities, cardiovascular and liver health, as well as factors such as dosing convenience, tolerability, and safety.

Read more at Life Science Leader 

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Trade Wars

Toyota To Build Tacoma Pickups In Texas, Not Mexico

Toyota Motor on Monday announced that it is investing $3.6 billion to move production of the Tacoma midsize pickup truck from a plant in Mexico to its San Antonio, Texas, manufacturing campus. The investment is expected to create 2,000 U.S. jobs at the facility, add a second vehicle assembly line and roughly double the size of the 2.7-million-square-foot plant by 2030, the automaker said. It will expand the plant’s annual capacity from roughly 200,000 to 350,000 units, Toyota said. The Texas plant currently produces the Toyota Tundra full-size pickup truck, including a hybrid variant, and the Toyota Sequoia SUV hybrid.

The announcement is part of Toyota’s stated plans to invest up to $10 billion more than previously expected domestically in the U.S. through 2030. It comes less than a week after the Trump administration confirmed it would not extend its trilateral trade pact with Canada and Mexico, instead opting to conduct annual reviews. “This investment expands Toyota’s manufacturing capacity and complements our broader North American production network,” A Toyota spokeswoman said in an email to CNBC.

Read more at CNBC

Samsung Posts 1,800% Jump In Profit, But AI Spending Concerns Spook Investors

Samsung Electronics shares fell as concerns about spending and demand overshadowed record second-quarter earnings. The company reported preliminary second-quarter operating profit of 89.4 trillion won ($58.4 billion), versus 57.2 trillion won in the prior period. On a year-on-year basis, operating profit for the quarter is expected to jump more than 1,800%. Revenue for the April-to-June period was 171 trillion won, up from 133.9 trillion won in the previous quarter. Compared to the same period a year earlier, sales more than doubled.

The results include deducted one-off expenses for employee bonus provisions. Earlier this year, Samsung agreed to scrap its 1,000% base salary bonus cap and earmark 10.5% of its operating profit for bonuses, capitulating to a weeks-long labor union protest that demanded a fair share of the company’s earnings. Samsung’s latest pledge to build massive semiconductor fabrication plants in the southern part of the country is also dragging down shares, Tom Kang, research director at Counterpoint Technology Market Research said. He noted that the location is far from the central part of Korea where traditional fabrication plants are concentrated, and since it is “new ground,” Samsung will have to start from zero to build the infrastructure, a layout that deviates from investor expectations.

 Read more at CNBC

Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario

A year ago, the message from many business leaders was that AI was going to wipe out jobs. For the past month or so, tech CEOs have been striking a more optimistic tone. In late May, OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman—who has long predicted that AI will lead to seismic shifts in the workforce—said during a conference, “We’ve been roughly right on technological predictions and pretty wrong on the social and economic implications.” Soon after, he told CNBC, “Our industry underestimated how much we’re going to be able to keep people at the center of everything.” Is the sunnier outlook a move to win back customers and the public who are souring on AI’s world-upending promise? Or is the role of AI in the workplace now just better understood?

Collectively, the narrative has shifted from worker-light doomsday scenarios caused by AI to a future in which workers keep their jobs—and get a productivity boost. The sentiment change isn’t limited to tech leaders: A survey by EY-Parthenon found that the percentage of CEOs who believe AI investments will result in significant reductions in head count fell from around 46% in January 2025 to 20% this May. Another recent study by financial-technology company Ramp and workforce-intelligence firm Revelio Labs found that companies making the largest AI investments grew employment by roughly 10% more than otherwise similar companies that hadn’t yet adopted AI.

Read more at the WSJ

Airbus Wins Another Widebody Order

Scandinavian airline SAS placed a firm order with Airbus for 18 A330neo aircraft as part of an ongoing fleet modernization effort. The order includes further options for as many as 22 more of the same model aircraft, and although neither Airbus nor SAS offered details on the value of the basic order it could be worth as much as $5.7 billion based on list prices for the A330neo. The contract also initiates a parallel order with Rolls-Royce for 40 Trent 7000 high-bypass turbofan engines, the exclusive powerplant for that Airbus series.

SAS, like numerous commercial carriers, has started a multi-billion dollar modernization program to update its long-range aircraft fleet (the focus for the current order), expand its regional service network, and modernize its narrow-body fleet. The A330neo is a widebody, twin-engine aircraft introduced in 2018 as a revision to the previous A330, to achieve more fuel-efficiency thanks to the Trent 7000 engines and other aerodynamic improvements, as well as more passenger amenities for long-haul routes. The A330-900 model that SAS has selected has a range of 7,350 nautical miles (13,610 km / 8,460 miles) and seating capacity for 287 passengers.

Read more at American Machinist

Boeing's New 737 Assembly Line Starts Moving In Everett

Boeing began operating a fourth 737 MAX assembly line on Monday at its Everett, Washington, factory. The new line, ​known inside Boeing as the North Line, is part of ‌the U.S. planemaker's long-term plans to significantly increase output of its popular single-aisle jetliner to keep up with historically high global demand for jets. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said described the line as a ⁠copy of the three 737 final assembly lines in Boeing's Renton plant, ​south of Seattle. The Everett plant is the world's largest building ​by volume. ⁠It once housed production lines for the 747, 767, 777 and 787, but it has considerable available factory space after the end of 747 production and ⁠the ​consolidation of 787 assembly in South Carolina.

The start comes as Boeing ramps 737 production from 42 to ​47 jets a month after consulting with the Federal Aviation Administration. The North Line is not expected to contribute to any rate increases before early 2027, when Boeing aims ​to increase 737 output to 52 jets a month. The company is studying ​increasing the 737 production rate to as much as 70 jets per month. Boeing needs to ‌increase ⁠737 output to help regain its financial footing after years of production disruptions, safety crises and supplier strains.

Read more at Reuters

Microsoft Is Cutting More Than 4,000 Jobs, 3,000 in Xbox Division

Microsoft MSFT will cut some 3,200 jobs from its Xbox videogames division as it restructures the struggling business. The company will lay off 1,600 people this week and 1,250 more during the rest of the fiscal year that began this month, Xbox Chief Executive Asha Sharma said in a memo to staff Monday. In addition, Microsoft is selling or spinning off four game development studios and exploring strategic options for a fifth—moves that will take at least 350 additional people off its payroll. Those cuts represent about one-fifth of the division’s total head count.

The videogame industry has been pummeled by layoffs for the past couple of years after many companies, including Microsoft, expanded aggressively in response to a surge of business during the pandemic. That boom halted when the world reopened. Microsoft bought game production companies including Activision Blizzard to beef up the offerings on Game Pass, its Netflix-style subscription service. The company had projected Game Pass subscriptions would reach around 77 million this year, according to a document revealed during legal proceedings related to the Activision acquisition. It currently has about 30 million.

Read more at the WSJ

Aluminum Giant Alcoa To Buy South32’s Assets In Deal Valued At $5.6B

Alcoa Corp. will acquire mining and metals assets from South32, expanding its operational footprint in Australia and Brazil while establishing a presence in South Africa for the first time, the Pittsburgh-based company said June 30. As part of the agreement, Alcoa will purchase Perth, Australia-based South32’s interests in bauxite mine, alumina refinery and aluminum smelter operations for $3.1 billion in upfront cash and 17 million Alcoa shares valued at $1 billion.

The deal also includes roughly $750 million in assumed net debt and lease liabilities and up to $750 million in contingent cash consideration payable through 2030, based on aluminum and alumina price performance, according to global research firm Wood Mackenzie. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027. South32 has been repositioning toward copper and critical minerals in recent years. It sold its coal assets in 2024 and Cerro Matoso ferronickel mine in Colombia in December. Meanwhile, the company has been advancing its $2.16 billion Hermosa development in southern Arizona, expected to be the only U.S. mining project capable of producing zinc and manganese.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Lockheed Martin To Buy Naval Defense Firm Ultra Maritime For $3.45 Billion

Defense heavyweight Lockheed Martin said Monday it will buy naval defense group Ultra Maritime for $3.45 billion. CNBC reported earlier in the day that Lockheed Martin was leading the race to buy Ultra for roughly $3.5 billion, and that Guggenheim and JPMorgan were advising on the sell side. “By joining forces with Ultra Maritime, we’re accelerating our commitment to deliver the most advanced undersea and anti-submarine warfare capabilities to our U.S. and allied partners across the globe,” said Stephanie C. Hill, president of Lockheed Martin Rotary and Mission Systems.

Ultra is owned by private equity firm Advent International, and specializes in anti-submarine technology. The company makes radar and electronic warfare systems, as well as torpedo defense countermeasures. After the deal closes, Ultra’s team will become part of Lockheed Martin’s Rotary and Mission Systems business area. Lockheed Martin is one of the world’s largest defense firms, producing planes such as the F-35 Lightning II fighter jet and munitions like the Patriot air defense missile.

Read more at CNBC

Big Tech Data Centers Are Driving Up Power Bills At America's Rust Belt Factories

Belden Brick is among many manufacturers across America’s heartland where costs are rising as power-hungry data centers serving the artificial intelligence industry ‌proliferate. The 141-year-old brick manufacturer, whose products can be found in iconic buildings including the Texas Alamo and Notre Dame University, is seeing power bills rise mainly from a monthly capacity charge, which recently jumped from $1,600 a month to $12,000. Factory electricity bills, a core expense, are rising faster than for many homes and other businesses, according to a Reuters review of U.S. energy data and interviews with nearly a dozen manufacturers and industry advocates.

Capacity charges are designed to compensate power generators for ensuring the grid has enough electricity for peak ​usage and to spur development of new supply. They generally account for about 10% of residential bills but can represent up to three times that for manufacturers, according to interviews with manufacturers, attorneys and energy experts. Such fees have soared in the 13-state region covered ​by grid operator PJM Interconnection due to stagnant supply and demand from data centers, where one server warehouse can use as much electricity as a mid-sized town. "That capacity charge just jumped off the page," said company ⁠president Brad Belden, part of the fifth generation working at the company.

Read more at Reuters 

Daily Market Update July 7, 2026

The August ’26 natural gas contract is down $0.04 at $3.20. The August ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.73 at $69.28. 

Read more at NRG

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Quote of the Day

“Wherever we look upon this earth, the opportunities take shape within the problems.”

Nelson A. Rockefeller - American Businessman and Politician who served as Governor of New York and Vice President. He was born on this day in 1908.

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