Member Briefing June 17, 2026

Empire Manufacturing Survey – “Modest” Increase in June Activity

After posting strong growth last month, business activity increased modestly in New York State in June, according to firms responding to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index remained positive but fell fourteen points to 5.7.

• The new orders index moved down to 3.5, pointing to a slight increase in orders, and the shipments index printed at 8.6, pointing to a modest increase in shipments.
• The delivery times index remained positive at 11.9, suggesting that delivery times continued to lengthen. The supply availability index edged down three points to -13.9, its lowest level since June 2022, pointing to worsening supply availability.
• The index for number of employees held steady at 9.6, and the average workweek index came in at 5.1, signaling that employment and hours worked both increased for a fifth consecutive month.
• The pace of price increases remained elevated, with the prices paid index little changed at 61.0 and the prices received index holding at 31.4.
• The index for future business conditions came in at 30.1, with 44 percent of respondents expecting activity to increase in the months ahead.
• New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and supply availability is expected to worsen.
• The future selling price index rose to its highest level since 2022, suggesting that firms widely expect to raise their prices over the next six months.
• Employment is expected to continue to expand.
• Capital spending plans softened.

Read more at The NY Fed

U.S. Industrial Production Edged Up in May

U.S. industrial production edged up 0.1% M/M in May, just under the +0.2% consensus and slowing dramatically from its 0.9% increase in April (revised from +0.7%), according to data released by the Federal Reserve on Monday. Manufacturing output was flat during the month vs. 0.3% consensus and +0.7% prior (revised from +0.6%). Construction production climbed 1.1% M/M in May, reversing a 0.3% decline in April. Consumer goods production declined 0.5% M/M compared with a 1.2% increase in the prior month.

The index for mining rose 1.3%, and the index for utilities fell 0.4% during the month, the Fed said. Capacity utilization ticked up to 76.2% from 76.1% in April and matched the 76.2% consensus. On a Y/Y basis, capacity utilization increased 1.3% in May.

Read more at Seeking Alpha

US Import Prices Increase More Than Expected In May

U.S. import prices rose more than expected in May amid strong gains in the prices of fuels and capital ​goods, leading to the largest annual increase in nearly four ‌years. Import prices increased 1.9% last month after an upwardly revised 2.0% jump in April, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. Economists ​polled by Reuters had forecast import prices, which exclude tariffs, ​rising 1.0% after a previously reported 1.9% surge in ⁠April. In the 12 months through May, import prices advanced 6.7%. That ​reading was the largest year-on-year increase since August 2022 and followed ​a 4.2% rise in April.

Prices on U.S. energy imports rose at a slower rate last month as the global economy adjusted to the effects of the Iran conflict, but overall growth in import prices remained elevated, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. For nonpetroleum imports, prices grew by 0.8% last month, versus April’s 0.6% increase.The import-price figures exclude duties, such as tariffs imposed on imports by the Trump administration, as well as transportation costs.

Read more at The WSJ

Iran and the Middle East

• Iran Says The Deal To End The War With The US Requires Israel To Withdraw From Lebanon – AP
• US-Iran Deal Promises End To War But How It Will Work Remains Unclear - Reuters
• Trump, Vance, Iranian Official Sign US-Iran Peace Memo – The Hill
• The Trump-Iran Deal Allows Tehran to Immediately Sell Oil - WSJ
• Iran Deal Includes $300 Billion Fund, More Than Half Of Which Already Committed, Source Says - Reuters
• Israel Is Alarmed by Trump’s Deal With Iran - WSJ
• The US Is Using An Iranian Smuggling Tactic To Sneak Oil Out Of The Gulf - WSJ
• Trump Denies U.S. Will Put ‘Any Money’ Into Iran, As He Meets Allies At G7 Summit - CNBC
• Interactive Map – US and Israeli Attack in Iran – ArcGIS Story Maps
• Map – Conflicts in the Middle East – Live Universal Awareness Map

Ukraine

• ‘Russia Should Make A Deal,’ Trump Says After ‘Very Good Meeting’ With Zelenskyy At G7 – The Guardian
• US Allies Scramble To Push Ukraine Back To The Top Of Trump's Agenda At G7 – France 24
• Trump Is Turning His Attention Back To Ukraine — And Kyiv’s Allies Are Worried - Politico
• Russian Airstrikes Spark Blaze at Kyiv Cathedral - WSJ
• Trump Signals Swift Return Of Sanctions On Russian Oil As G7 Refocuses On Ukraine - AP
• The Dangerous Tech Found Aboard ‘Dark-Fleet’ Tankers Captured by the U.S. - WSJ
• Interactive Map: Assessed Control Of Terrain In Ukraine – Institute For The Study Of War
• Map – Tracking Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine – Live Universal Awareness Map

Other World Headlines

• China Retail Sales Fall For First Time Since COVID Lockdowns – Nikkei Asia
• EU And UK To Hold Summit On July 22 - Politico
• Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rate To Highest For 31 Years -BBC
• What One Country's Experiment Says About Attempts To Boost Birth Rates - BBC
• UN Chief Guterres To Visit Gang-Ravaged Haiti – France 24
• EU Carbon Tariff Sows Havoc In China As Steel Firms Grapple With ‘Absurd’ Rules - SCMP
• Former UK Minister Streeting Says He Could Challenge PM Starmer Next Week - Reuters
• UK Investigating Reports Of Russian Frigate Firing Shots At British Yacht In English Channel - Politico
• Iranian Pro-Shah And Pro-Regime Protesters Clash At World Cup Came In Mexico – Yahoo Sports

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Warsh’s Fed Is Likely To Hold Rates Steady Today

Kevin Warsh will preside over his first interest rate-setting meeting as Federal Reserve chair on Wednesday, when the central bank is expected to hold rates steady. All eyes will be on Warsh as Fed watchers try to discern his views, his personal credibility, and how he will position the Fed in the current landscape. The committee is facing hotter inflation readings as the conflict in Iran has pushed inflation higher.

"While Warsh is generally perceived as dovish, he will inherit a committee that has become noticeably more hawkish," said Greg Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. "Warsh's first challenge will not be steering the committee toward easier policy, but demonstrating that his decisions are grounded in economic fundamentals rather than political considerations." Inflation has persisted above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years. The latest Consumer Price Index reported headline inflation breaching 4% in May — the highest level in three years — while prices businesses paid soared 6.5%. "Core" inflation, excluding energy prices, rose nearly 3%.

Read more at Yahoo Finance

Social Security’s Looming Insolvency Sparks Alarm In Congress

Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) call for Republicans to act on Social Security reform if they keep control of Congress in 2027 is getting pushback from Senate Republicans who warn it’s a bad political message heading into November. Yet, a trustees’ report that the popular retirement program will become insolvent sooner than expected has lit a fire under lawmakers in both parties to call for reforms such as raising the cap on payroll taxes, “means testing” beneficiaries, raising the retirement age, and creating personal accounts to invest in the stock markets.

some Republicans are wary of Johnson’s call for action because they remember the brutal political lesson from 20 years ago when former President George W. Bush tried to reform Social Security without Democratic buy-in and it blew up in Republicans’ faces. “That sounds like wealthy people who want to have all of their tax breaks and loopholes and their carried interest deductions and so forth but they want working people who paid into all of those programs for years to take less,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said when asked about the Speaker’s statements about the need to tackle big mandatory spending programs such as Social Security and Medicare. “Addressed? Reformed? That’s usually code for ‘cut.’ I’m not in favor of that,” he said

Read more at The Hill

How the Pentagon Plans to Fix Its Pricey Missile Problem

The U.S. military is using nonstandard contracts and tasking defense contractors to design new weapons from scratch to cut years of production time and hundreds of millions of dollars off their cost. Even before the Iran war cut into U.S. armament supplies, lawmakers and military brass worried that the U.S. can’t rearm itself fast enough to deter threats and respond to conflicts. One Army initiative, known as the Low-Cost Containerized Missiles program, would amass thousands of missiles fired from containers that can be moved around on vehicles. A key requirement for producers: Each missile fired must cost less than $500,000.

Another Army project has asked companies to develop air-defense missiles that cost less than $250,000 apiece. The newest Patriot surface-to-air interceptors from Lockheed Martin take more than two years to make and cost about $4 million each. A separate Air Force project aims to procure tens of thousands of less-costly missiles over the coming years. The U.S. military has for years explored middle-of-the road weapons and defenses that sit somewhere between less expensive guided artillery and top-of-the-line million-dollar missiles, according to Todd Harrison, a defense expert at the American Enterprise Institute. The biggest hurdle, he said, is overcoming the Pentagon’s habit of micromanaging the process.

Read more at the WSJ Release

More Policy and Politics Headlines

• Democrats Hold 5-Point Edge Over GOP Ahead Of Midterms: Poll – The Hill
• US Holds Off Blacklisting China's Deepseek, More Than 100 Firms Deemed Security Risks, Sources Say - Reuters
• Multiple Arrests As FBI Disrupts ‘Planned Attacks’ Targeting White House UFC Show, Director Says - AP
• Kevin Warsh Wants the Fed to Stop Explaining Everything - WSJ
• House Approves Bill To Speed Up Union Contract Negotiations, Force Binding Arbitration - NPR
• Voters Consider Health Insurers To Be The Reason For High Health Costs – Benefits Pro
• What This Iran Deal Might Mean for American Consumers - WSJ
• As Luigi Mangione's Lawyers Head To Court, Support Grows For The Accused 'Vigilante' - NPR
• DOT To Launch Supply Chain Initiative, Visibility Dashboard – Supply Chain Dive
• B-52 On Test Flight Plunged At Nearly A Mile A Minute Before Crashing, Killing 8 - AP
• New Wharton Forecast Puts Social Security Trust Fund Depletion Later Than Official Projections – CNBC

Treating Pancreatic Tumors May Have Revealed Cancer’s Master Switch

A highly anticipated clinical trial of the targeted drug daraxonrasib suggests it may open a whole new era in treating pancreatic cancer, after the drug doubled median survival time for patients compared with chemotherapy. People in the trial also tolerated side effects from the new drug better than chemotherapy, which is the current standard of care when the disease has metastasized (spread to other parts of the body). The international phase 3 trial involved a total of 500 patients who were diagnosed with metastatic pancreatic cancer and had been treated previously:

• Roughly half were randomly assigned to receive daraxonrasib, and the other half received chemotherapy of the investigator’s choice.
• Median overall survival was 13.2 months with daraxonrasib and 6.7 months with chemotherapy.
• Median progression-free survival — meaning the length of time cancer didn’t get worse — was 7.2 months with daraxonrasib and 3.6 months with chemotherapy.
• Treatment-related side effects severe enough to stop the treatment occurred in 1.2% of patients in the daraxonrasib group and 11.2% of patients in the chemotherapy group.

Pancreatic cancer specialists say a key to the success of daraxonrasib is that the drug targets the RAS gene, particularly the family of KRAS mutations. KRAS mutations drive over 90% of pancreatic cancers by sending signals that cause uncontrolled cell growth. Until now, no therapies have been able to effectively target RAS despite decades of work.

Read more at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center

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Trade Wars

• Europe Signs Off On Long-Awaited US Tariff Deal – France 24
• Ocean Shippers Frontload Cargo Ahead Of Tariffs, Fuel Concerns – Supply Chain Dive
• Canada More Focused on Tariff Relief Over USMCA Renewal, Ambassador Says - WSJ
• The Gordie Howe Bridge Opening Between The U.S. And Canada Was Postponed. Here’s What To Know – Philadelphia Inquirer
• Tariff Refunds May Soon Cover More Entries — But Not Without A Fight – Supply Chain Dive
• Orange County Foreign Trade Zone Interest Increases With President’s Tariff Hikes – Mid-Hudson News

J&J Invests $1B To Expand Vision Care Manufacturing

Johnson and Johnson (J&J) has invested $1bn into strengthening its vision manufacturing capabilities in Florida, part of the company’s broader plans to outlay $55bn into expanding its overall US manufacturing footprint through 2029. The investment will augment J&J’s existing manufacturing presence in Jacksonville, supporting the construction of a new distribution facility that is mooted to be ready and operational in 2028. The proceeds will also expand J&J’s advanced manufacturing and packaging capabilities in the city, with the primary aim to meet growing demand for its ACUVUE brand of contact lenses, the company stated.

J&J’s $1bn investment aligns with its broader $55bn pledge announced in March 2025 to increase its manufacturing footprint in the US – an initiative primarily driven by pharma-related incentives as outlined by the Trump Administration. J&J’s other commitments to increase its manufacturing capabilities on home soil include a $1bn cell therapy facility in Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, that was announced in February 2026, and a $2bn biologics production facility in Wilson, North Carolina, that was announced in November 2025.

Read more at Medical Device Network

JetZero Breaks Ground On $4.7 Billion Greensboro Campus, Largest Job Commitment In North Carolina History

JetZero officially broke ground Monday on a $4.7 billion manufacturing campus near Piedmont Triad International Airport, marking the start of what state leaders call the largest job commitment in North Carolina history. JetZero plans to build an 8-million-square-foot manufacturing campus that will use advanced digital and AI-driven production processes. The company says the facility will eventually manufacture up to 20 aircraft per month.

The Z4 aircraft features a blended-wing design that combines the fuselage and wings into a single structure. JetZero says the design can improve fuel efficiency by up to 50% while reducing emissions compared to traditional commercial aircraft. The project is expected to create more than 14,500 jobs in Guilford County and establish Greensboro as the production home of JetZero's blended-wing Z4 aircraft. The company plans to rely heavily on digital manufacturing technology. O'Leary said engineers will simulate both aircraft and factory operations before physical construction is completed.

Read more at WFMY

Manufacturers Can Barely Keep Up With the Data Center Gold Rush

The data center boom has been showing up in the manufacturing sector for several quarters now as demand has risen rapidly for steel racks, cooling systems and electrical gear. Just how rapid that growth is—and looks to be for quite a while—was made clear by the CEOs of 3M Co. and Carrier Global Corp. Speaking at the 16th Annual Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference in Chicago, 3M’s Bill Brown and Carrier’s Dave Gitlin said they are recalibrating on the fly just how big their businesses serving data centers could be. Gitlin told attendees that Carrier’s data center work making heat management systems, which his team had initially estimated would book $1.5 billion in sales this year, has been “phenomenal” so far. The company is “certainly pushing” to top that number, he added, and its biggest issue “is just keeping up.”

Brown and 3M expect to bring in about $600 million in 2026 from their work with data centers. Roughly $500 million of that comes from gear outside the facilities, equipment such as cables and insulation. Sales of those products have been rising around 10% annually and 3M’s backlog is growing solidly, Brown said. Where things are moving at breakneck speeds for 3M are with its Expanded Beam Optical cabling line, which is among the products that are replacing traditional copper cables. 3M leaders said they were investing in new capacity. With a $100 million business group that’s growing at 50% per quarter, that plan might already be chasing the facts.

Read more at IndustryWeek

UAW Members Vote To Ratify Deal With American Axle In Three Rivers

Members of United Auto Workers Local 2093 voted overwhelmingly on Sunday to ratify a new four-year agreement with American Axle, securing workers’ demands for a wage increase of $30 per hour by 2030. UAW members voted 80% in favor of the new contract, which provides employees of the Three Rivers plant a more than 36% wage increase over the life of the agreement, among other gains.

Beyond wage increases, the new contract secures more paid days off for workers without increasing their current healthcare costs — something UAW leaders say the company previously insisted couldn’t be done. “Despite what the company pushed for, we would not accept any concessions from this agreement,” said UAW Local 2093 Bargaining Chair Josh Jager on Wednesday. “This contract ensures there will be no healthcare premium cost increases for the life of the deal. What you pay today is what you’ll pay for the next four years.”

Read more at Click of Detroit

Lockheed Martin Union Workers In Fort Worth Ratify New Contract

Union workers who assemble the F-35 aircraft at Lockheed Martin in Fort Worth voted June 14 to ratify a new contract with the defense contractor after months of negotiations. Roughly 5,000 local members of IAM, or the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union, voted to ratify the contract, according to a press release from IAM. Lockheed Martin is the largest defense contractor in the United States. During the war in Iran, according to the company, the jets have helped in “suppressing Iran’s air defenses.” On June 2, the Department of War awarded the company over $879 million to support F-35 delivery schedules.

The new contract, according to IAM, includes a “historic” 6% general wage increase, a $6,000 “ratification bonus,” a $1,000 cost of living adjustment payment per year, increased vacation time, the end of mandatory overtime, and increase in pension contributions. The new contract, which went into effect at midnight on June 15, will last for five years. In 2025, Lockheed Martin delivered nearly 200 of the aircraft in a record-breaking year of production, according to the company. Bargaining for the new contract began in mid-March, according to the union, after the bargaining team participated in a training course in January.

Read more at Fort Worth Star-Telegram

Lockheed Building More Space Force Satellites

Lockheed Martin has a new $514-million the U.S. Space Systems Command award to manufacture and deliver two more GPS III Follow-On (GPS IIIF) space vehicles, designate Space Vehicles 23 and 24 in connection to a previous contact. The original contract, from 2018, envisioned a total of up to 22 satellites as part of an extensive constellation modernization effort for the U.S. Global Positioning System. The award covers design, engineering, production, testing, storage, launch support, and on-orbit support of advanced GPS satellites, with multiple options for further satellites to be delivered. The new contract modification brings the total cumulative value of the contract to $4.68 billion.

The new vehicles are intended to provide greater accuracy; improved anti-jam capabilities; enhanced cybersecurity; longer operating life; and increased flexibility for future upgrades. The satellites will be built at Lockheed Martin’s space systems center in Littleton, Col., where it uses a “digital manufacturing approach” that includes primary structural assembly and incorporates the propulsion, avionics, and major subsystems into a unitary space vehicle. The process uses digital twins (virtual spacecraft models) and augmented reality tools for assembly and inspection.

Read more at American Machinist

General Motors Announces New Defense Partnership With Lockheed Martin

Automaker General Motors on Tuesday announced a new partnership with defense company Lockheed Martin to scale manufacturing and expand production capabilities. The deal was facilitated by the U.S. Department of Defense, according to Bruce Brown, GM’s vice president of strategy at GM Defense, and will focus on munitions and more. Executives from both companies said on the call that the collaboration will allow for more growth at a time when the country is ramping up its production of defense parts. Lockheed Martin is investing $9 billion through 2030 to modernize 20 of its facilities and supply bases, St. John added. GM said it will spend $7 billion on research and development in the U.S., according to Brown.

The executives said the partnership will be focused on “high-rate manufacturing” at scale and expanding production capacity. They added that the collaboration is still in early stages and that they need to further define what the potential for future contracts may be. They are working under a memorandum of understanding. The automaker built tanks for the country during World War II. Its GM Defense unit is one of the company’s newer but fast-growing business segments, reestablished in 2017 with customers including the U.S. Army, Secret Service and NASA.

Read more at CNBC

IEA Sees Gradual Hormuz Recovery Tipping Into Significant 2027 Surplus

The world oil market will recover gradually from the closure ​of the Strait of Hormuz before tipping into ‌a significant surplus in 2027, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report on Wednesday. The U.S. ​and Iran reached an agreement to end the ​three-month-old war, which includes Iran reopening the Strait of ⁠Hormuz and the U.S. lifting its naval blockade, ​potentially bringing an end to the largest oil supply ​disruption in history which shut in over 14 million barrels per day of Middle East oil output, according to the IEA.

"If ​the deal holds, exports and production from the ​Gulf should see a gradual recovery – not least because Iranian oil ‌exports ⁠can fully resume once the U.S. blockade is lifted," the agency, which advises industrialised countries, said. The oil market will then enter a significant supply overhang next ​year, the ​IEA said ⁠in its first look at 2027, with global oil supply set to surge by ​8 million bpd and demand rising by ​just ⁠2 million bpd. "This may provide a welcome respite to the market and an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories, ⁠or ​to build new strategic reserves, ​as countries review their energy strategies and policies in response to the ​crisis."

Read more at Reuters

Daily Market Update June 16, 2026

The July ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.01 at $3.15. The July ‘26 crude oil contract is down $3.26 at $77.49. 

Read more at NRG

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Quote of the Day

"Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off your goal."

Charles Goodyear - American Chemist and Inventor. He recieved his first rubber patent on this day in 1837.

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