Member Briefing June 18, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

U.S. Companies Stop Waiting for Supply Chains to Return to Normal

U.S. companies are building more flexible logistics networks as they adjust to persistent global upheaval in supply chains, from the war in Iran to uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy. The turmoil has changed the way shippers approach supply-chain planning to be more nimble, according to experts on a panel discussing the latest annual State of Logistics Report from the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals. Shippers are more involved with each step of the supply chain, and companies are using a combination of annual contracts and spot ocean shipments to manage costs. A successful supply chain in the future is “not going to be based upon scale or your buying power, but it’s going to be based upon your agility and your decision-making speed,” added Doug Cantriel, head of North American transportation and modernization at Ford Motor, who noted he wasn’t speaking on behalf of Ford.

U.S. businesses last year spent $2.4 trillion on transportation, inventory-carrying costs and other shipping related expenses, down 1% from 2024, according to the report. Logistics costs are on the rise this year, with trucking rates climbing after a four-year slump and ocean shipping rates surging after a 36% drop last year. Increased use of warehouse automation coupled with the rapid buildout of AI data centers could place a different kind of pressure on supply chains, with higher power costs and lower grid reliability, another panelist warned.

Read more at The WSJ

Retail Sales Up 0.9% In May, More Than Expected

Retail sales jumped 0.9% last month after a downwardly revised 0.4% gain in April, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, rising 0.5% after a previously reported 0.5% increase in April. Some of the rise in sales last month reflected higher gasoline prices, which lifted receipts at service stations. Gasoline prices surged to four-year highs amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. They have since retreated, with the national retail average slipping below $4 a gallon this week for the first time since April.

Retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services increased 0.7% in May after an unrevised 0.5% advance in April. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, increased at a 1.4% annualized rate in the first quarter. The economy grew at a 1.6% pace last quarter. The Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker shows the economy growing at a 2.8% pace this quart.

Read more at The Detroit News

NY Fed: Region’s Service Sector Continued ‘Modest’ Decline in June

Business activity continued to decline modestly in the region's service sector in June, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Business Leaders Survey. The survey's headline business activity index fell four points to -10.1.

  • The business climate index remained deeply negative, but moved up ten points to -37.3, with 15 percent of respondents reporting a favorable business climate and 53 percent reporting an unfavorable climate.
  • The employment index jumped nine points to 11.2, its highest level in nearly two years, suggesting employment levels rose notably.
  • The wages index rose ten points to 36.0, indicating that wage growth picked up.
  • The prices paid index held steady at 72.6, signaling that input prices continued to increase sharply, and the prices received index was little changed at 31.3, a sign that selling price increases also remained elevated.
  • The supply availability index rose five points to -10.6, indicating that supply availability continued to worsen, though less so than last month.
  • The index for future business activity was little changed at 8.3, suggesting that firms expect only modest growth in activity over the next six months.
  • Employment is expected to move higher in the months ahead.
  • Capital spending plans remained soft.

Read more at The New York Fed

Iran and the Middle East

Ukraine

Other World Headlines

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Fed Holds Rates Steady, But More Governors See Higher Rates as Next Move

The Federal Reserve kept its key rate unchanged Wednesday yet almost half the central bank’s policymakers said they could support a rate hike later this year, an unexpectedly aggressive outcome that suggests heightened concerns about persistent inflation. In an unusually short statement after their two-day meeting, Fed officials dropped language that had suggested their next move would be to cut their key rate. The brief statement likely reflects the influence of new chair Kevin Warsh, appointed by Trump, who has previously criticized the Fed for commenting too broadly on the economy.

In a set of quarterly projections, nine Fed officials said they expected at least one rate hike this year, with six supporting two or more. It’s a sharp change from March, when no policymakers penciled in a hike and the committee as a whole forecast one cut in 2026. The change is an acknowledgement that inflation is at its highest level in three years and many officials have said in recent speeches that if inflation doesn’t decline, higher rates may be necessary as early as the end of the year.

Read more at the AP

New York State Sued By Justice Department Over CDPAP Transition

The Justice Department is suing New York State over its Medicaid home care program, also known as CDPAP, and the private vendor it was transitioned to in early 2025. The federal government claims the state rigged a bidding process, giving private vendor PPL a massive contract, resulting in millions of taxpayer dollars being stolen or misused by the company. The Justice Department says New York covered up problems tied to the transition and is asking a federal court to block PPL from overcharging taxpayers. New York Health Commissioner James McDonald, who is named in the lawsuit, told the New York Post in response that the CDPAP transition is proceeding efficiently and effectively.

Public Partnerships LLC was brought in to replace middlemen in the Consumer Directed Personal Assistance Program, or CDPAP, in a move the state claimed would save costs in 2024 – but led to a disastrous transition. The suit claims New York health officials wrote that they were under “pressure from the Governor’s Office” as they vetted other potential bidders in emails to health officials from other states. The complaint also alleges PPL violated federal criminal healthcare fraud statutes, alleging it inflated its costs that are directly billed to Medicaid as well as the administrative rate it receives from the state in direct violation of its contract.

Read more at The New York Times

Trump Invokes Defense Production Act To Boost Munition Production

The president said in the memo, which was released Tuesday, that “conditions exist which may pose a direct threat to the national defense or its preparedness programs. In particular, systemic constraints in the munitions industrial base, including limited production capacity, fragile supply chains, long-lead dependencies, and related production bottlenecks, may impair the ability of the United States to produce, sustain and expand the availability of munitions, missiles, and equipment required for the national defense,” Trump said in the 1-page memo to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, which is set to be formally released on Wednesday.

Trump’s memo delegates Hegseth, under a section of the DPA, which passed Congress in 1950, to permit companies and the government to strike “voluntary agreements and plans of action to help provide for the national defense. The U.S. war with Iran has thrust concerns over munitions stockpiles to the forefront and the ability of manufacturers to produce enough amid heightened levels of expenditures during recent military operations overseas. “We want these to be set up as an enduring capability. So, expect to see more of these,” Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Base Policy Michael Cadenazzi said at the Center for a New American Security’s event on Tuesday.

Read more at The Hill

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Changing The Conversation - June is Men’s Mental Health Month

June is Men’s Mental Health Awareness Month, a time to shine light on the mental health challenges many men face. According to a new survey from The Standard, one in five young men have taken mental health leave, with Gen Z men now taking leave at the same rate as Gen Z women – a sign that workplace attitudes towards mental health may be changing. But while younger men are becoming more willing to seek support, employers may still be failing to address the workplace pressures driving them to take leave in the first place.

For decades, men have been less likely than women to seek help for mental health challenges, particularly in the workplace. The research from The Standard suggests that may finally be changing. Experts say employers should focus on reducing stigma, training managers to support difficult conversations, strengthening return-to-work support, improving access to mental health services and addressing workload pressures before they escalate.

Read more at Fair Play Talks (UK)

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Trade Wars

CEOs of Anthropic And Google DeepMind Call For U.S.-Led AI Coalition In Meeting At G7

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and Google DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis called for a U.S.-led coalition to shape rules and standards around artificial intelligence at a meeting with tech leaders and heads of state, including President Donald Trump, CNBC has learned. The closed-door lunch meeting took place on Wednesday at the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France. Amodei and Hassabis both proposed international cooperation on AI, with the U.S. taking the lead, to protect against risks associated with the emerging technology, according to two people with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to discuss the meeting.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney agreed that the U.S. could lead an AI coalition, according to one of the people and another person familiar with the discussions. The gathering follows the release of increasingly powerful AI models with cyber capabilities so advanced that some industry experts have raised concerns that they can cause major disasters if left in the wrong hands. Most recently, Anthropic disabled access to its newest models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, on Friday after the U.S. government imposed export controls on the models, citing national security concerns.

Read more at CNBC

Olin Inks Deal With Huntsman To Form $12B Chemicals Giant

Chemical giants Olin and Huntsman have struck an all-stock deal to merge and create a North American entity valued at $12.5 billion, based on the companies’ combined 2025 revenue. The combined company will be renamed OlinHuntsman. In a joint press release, the companies said it will beneft from increased scale, scope and chlorine flexibility that will “create value across markets and cycles.” The merger is expected to close in the first half of 2027. Upon completion, Olin shareholders will own about 54.5% and Huntsman shareholders will own approximately 45.5% of the combined company.

The pending deal will combine Olin’s manufacturing and feedstock capabilities, including chlorine and caustic soda, with Huntsman’s downstream products, including polyurethanes, and formulation expertise, according to the release. The combination would also allow OlinHuntsman to grow with its customers at multiple stages in the value chain, using “lower-cost producer economics” to increase profitability. Furthermore, the merger would enable the new company to “pursue opportunities that neither business could fully capture on its own,” Olin President and CEO Ken Lane said in a statement.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

AIA Report Tracks Challenge Of Scaling Digital Thread

EY surveyed 57 leaders of AIA member organizations across commercial and military aviation, space systems, unmanned platforms, and components and subsystems, to understand how digital threads are being implemented and used. Digital thread, not to be confused with digital twins, is data across the end-to-end lifecycle, connecting design, manufacturing and operational information. Given the large amount of data across ecosystems and industries, AIA and EY wanted to see how digital thread is playing out in aerospace and defense organizations. The goal was to understand where the adoption of the technology stands, why scaling stalls and what leaders who succeed do differently.

“Understanding how that data is related together and how we can better utilize and leverage that data to increase velocity while maintaining our shared priorities would be an interesting topic to explore in our industry,” Tim White, AIA’s VP for engineering and technology said. Digital thread could speed up and improve operational efficiency for companies. About 87% surveyed said they’re familiar with digital thread, revealing that leaders in aerospace and defense believe in that promise. The survey results suggest that digital thread has “broad conceptual support but often lacks the enterprise‑wide ownership, governance and operating‑model integration required to scale,” according to the report. The most consistent theme from the interviews was that ownership, not technology, is the constraint.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Samsung Sees More Chipmaking Requests as TSMC Capacity Tightens

According to a report from Nikkei Asia, Samsung Foundry has seen a surge in inquiries from existing and potential global customers. The clients seek to use the Korean firm’s advanced chip manufacturing capacity. Google is considering using Samsung to make its next-gen Axion chips and parts of its AI Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), possibly as early as 2028. Meanwhile, BYD, China’s leading EV maker, is in discussions with Samsung regarding its future autonomous-driving chips. AMD is considering building future CPUs with Samsung from 2028. The Korean foundry already makes Nvidia’s Groq language processing units (LPUs).

Moreover, Tesla works with Samsung (alongside TSMC) for its AI5 chips, which power autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots. The Korean firm will also make the car maker’s AI6 chips in Texas, and the contract value may increase further from the original $16.5 billion. Customers are leaning toward Samsung due to capacity constraints at TSMC, the leader in the global foundry market. If Samsung continues to see increasing requests for advanced chip production, this will be a big win for its foundry business. The company has been struggling to earn profits for many years despite being the world’s second-largest foundry.

Read more at SammyGuru

Neura Defense Systems Launches AI Platform to Address Evolving Drone Threats

As low-cost drones increasingly reshape modern warfare, defense organizations are confronting a growing challenge: many of the most effective unmanned aerial threats can evade traditional detection and countermeasure systems. Neura Defense Systems (NDS), a Saint Petersburg, Florida-based defense technology company, has emerged from stealth mode with an autonomous counter-swarm platform designed to identify and respond to drone threats that conventional systems often miss. “The drones that matter most right now are the ones legacy systems can’t see,” said Sam Talari, founder and CEO of Neura Defense Systems. “Our platform runs on sensors operators already have, sees threats others miss, and keeps a human in command of every engagement.”

The company’s AI-powered platform combines data from multiple sensor types, including radar, electro-optical and infrared (EO/IR), radio frequency (RF), and acoustic systems, creating a unified operational picture for military operators. By integrating information from both commercial and military sensors, the platform is designed to detect, classify, and prioritize drone threats while keeping human operators responsible for authorizing engagement decisions.

Read more at CityBiz

SpaceX Locks In $60 Billion Cursor Deal To Close Gap With Rivals In AI Coding Race

Elon Musk's SpaceX is buying the startup behind the popular AI coding agent Cursor, Anysphere, for $60 billion in an all-stock deal to boost its presence in the lucrative enterprise AI tools market. Tuesday's deal follows a blockbuster Nasdaq ​debut for the rockets-to-AI company last week, in which its valuation surged to more than $2 trillion. The acquisition will give xAI, which was acquired ‌by SpaceX in February, a stronger hold in AI coding, one of the first areas where companies have turned AI into a real source of revenue from businesses. SpaceX had been eyeing Cursor for months and had in April unveiled an option to either buy ​the startup for $60 billion later this year or pay $10 billion for a partnership.

Cursor is one of several Silicon Valley startups that have drawn waves of developers by using AI to automate coding, making it ​a key rival to market leaders Anthropic and OpenAI. But a lack of access to computing power has hampered Cursor's growth. "Cursor ⁠does not have the scale of OpenAI or Anthropic, but it has built some very impressive coding models relative to cost. That makes this a positive move ​for SpaceX," said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Read more at Reuters

Could Agentic AI Make Robots Affordable for Small Business?

We’re nearly at the end of the AI hype cycle, when suggestions for how to leverage the technology become less flashy and more realistic. Like, for instance, the new agentic AI technology named Eigen, that Siemens revealed at this year’s Hannover Messe automation fair. Siemens pitches Eigen (a pun as the word means own in German but phonetically sounds like AI gen) as a brand-agnostic AI agent that can replace manual coding or programming for programmable logic controllers (PLC), distributed control systems (DCS) and robotics applications, updating code or instructions to reflect new priorities and goals.

According to Rainer Brehm, CEO of Siemens’ automation business and CTO for Siemens Digital Industries, Siemens in its operations sees that engineering and reconfigurations constitute 70% of the entire lifecycle cost of a robot. If, however, an AI agent like Eigen can shorten the time needed to make these adjustments, it makes the robot more efficient, and SMBs might be better able to afford deploying the technology. “There’s a kind of new age of automation arising, because [with AI assistance to program robots and PLCs] means you could suddenly automate much smaller lot sizes on a good return of investment,” says Brehm. Humans must always remain in the loop, however, says Kumar. Agentic AI is like an orchestra and humans the conductors.

Read more at Foundry

El Niño Is Here, So What Does It Mean?

This summer was already predicted to be hot for much of the planet, after a near-record year of global heat last year. But El Niño — the influential weather pattern associated with heat, unlike the cooler La Niña — has arrived, and it's raising more alarm. "If we have a big El Niño on top of the long-term warming trend, that just really enhances the probability that we'll see a new record global mean temperature," says meteorologist Nat Johnson of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who is part of the El Niño forecasting team. A strong El Niño would drive up average global temperatures. The hottest years on record generally occur in years when El Niño is active, because it occurs when the Eastern Pacific is hotter than usual.

During a typical El Niño, Johnson says, "impacts tend to be strongest in the mid-latitudes and the higher latitudes in the late fall and winter seasons." The southern U.S. mainland would see wetter weather, while the northernmost contiguous U.S. would see warmer conditions, Johnson says, adding that the Pacific Northwest tends to be drier. On the eastern side of the U.S., El Niño makes it harder for hurricanes to form in the Atlantic Ocean, so they often coincide with less severe hurricane seasons. However, El Niño offers limited protection, since it only takes one major storm making landfall to cause catastrophic damage. Climate change has also caused temperatures in the Atlantic to soar, providing more fuel for storms that do form. And El Niño does nothing to temper storms that form in the Pacific.

Read more at NPR

Daily Market Update June 17, 2026

The July ’26 natural gas contract is trading down $0.03 at $3.21. The July ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.55 at $76.60. 

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“But if we fail, then the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science. Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duties, and so bear ourselves that, if the British Empire and its Commonwealth last for a thousand years, men will still say, 'This was their finest hour.'”

Winston Churchill - British Prime Minister Speaking to Parliment on this Day in 1940 during the height of the Battle of Britain.

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