Member Briefing June 29, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

Bank of International Settlements: Debt, AI Boom And Economic Fragilities Raise Global Risks

Global pressures from rising public debt to financial fragilities and the sustainability of the AI boom are increasing risks, underscoring the need for disciplined policymaking, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The central bank umbrella group’s Annual Economic Report published on Sunday warned of a complex mix of vulnerabilities, including strained fiscal positions, lingering supply shocks and the risk of a renewed bout of stubbornly high inflation. The report highlighted four key pressure points.

  1. Inflation has picked up again, with the BIS cautioning that more frequent supply disruptions could cause higher inflation expectations to become entrenched among households and businesses.
  2. The BIS also flagged uncertainty over the durability of the current surge in investment tied to artificial intelligence. While AI has boosted confidence and supported growth through expectations of productivity gains, the bank warned it was raising fears about jobs and that supply bottlenecks and intense competition could lead to the kind of overinvestment seen in previous boom-and-bust cycles.
  3. Financial vulnerabilities remain another area of concern. Elevated asset valuations and signs of investor complacency have left core bond markets more fragile, while the financing of the AI boom also looks increasingly reliant on debt and complex funding structures across the supply chain.
  4. Record-high public debt and sovereign debt markets increasingly dominated by large, highly leveraged hedge funds had created “a new sovereign-financial stability nexus,” which poses growing risks.

Read more at CNBC

IFR: US Robotics Installations Rebounded In 2025, On Track For More Growth

Robots are rebounding in the United States, driven by increased installations across food production and non-manufacturing areas such as warehousing and logistics, according to the International Federation of Robotics. Installations grew 11% to reach 38,000 units across the nation as more sectors deploy materials handling, mobile and industrial arm robotics, IFR’s preliminary 2025 data shows. This came after two years of consecutive declines for the U.S. Last year also marked the third strongest on record for the U.S., behind 2018 and 2022.

The automotive sector was the main driver of U.S. robot demand, accounting for more than a third of the units installed last year. At the same time, the food industry and a segment of unspecified, non-manufacturing areas saw 30% and 41% growth, respectively. Meanwhile, the metal and machinery segment saw a 15% decline over the period. From a global standpoint, industrial robot installations grew 15% to a record 621,000 units last year, IFR data shows. While the U.S. saw double-digit growth, Asia comprised the largest share of installations at 79%, followed by Europe with 13% and the Americas at 9%.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

PCE = 4.1 Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gage Highest Since 2023 Driven by Middle East Turmoil

The PCE index showed inflation running at a seasonally adjusted 4.1% annual rate, the highest since April 2023, according to a Commerce Department report Thursday. On a monthly basis, PCE accelerated 0.4%. The annual level was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate while the monthly reading was 0.1 percentage point below. Excluding food and energy, the personal consumption expenditures price index showed a 3.4% annual rate after rising 0.3% for the month, both in line with Dow Jones consensus. The core reading was the highest since October 2023.

While Fed officials look at both headline and core rates, they generally consider the latter a better measure of long-run trends, particularly in light of this year’s inflation surge that was driven largely by an acceleration in energy prices tied to the Iran war that have slowly been seeping into other parts of the economy.

Read more at CNBC

Iran and the Middle East

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Housing Bill Will Be Sent To Trump On Monday, US House Speaker Says

U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson said on Sunday he would send a bipartisan housing affordability bill to Donald Trump on Monday, ​days after the Republican president refused to sign the bill until a divisive ‌voting rights measure was passed. "It's passed by both chambers. I'm sending it to him on Monday, and it will become law," Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana, said on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures" program.

Johnson met with Trump on Thursday to discuss a legislative path forward for the ​voting act and rescheduling the housing bill signing. Because the housing ​bill was passed by ​both houses of ⁠Congress, it could become law whether Trump signs it or not. Under the Constitution, after receiving the bill, the president has 10 days to ​sign or veto the bill, and if he declines to do ​either, it would ⁠become law without his signature.

Read more at Reuters

SBA: 28% of Federal Contracts Went to Small Businesses in 2025

Despite all the turmoil in federal contracting over the last year, agencies surpassed the 23% governmentwide goal for awards to small businesses in fiscal 2025. The Small Business Administration said today that agencies awarded 28% of all prime contracts to small firms last year. While agencies reached the overall goal, the total dollars going to small businesses dropped to $179 billion last year from $183.5 billion in 2024. The drop in overall dollars also comes in the face of agencies spending more money on federal procurement in 2025. The Government Accountability Office said in June that the government spent about $793 billion on contracts in 2025, up from $755.1 billion in 2024.

For the first time in a decade, however, the amount of money and percentage of awards to small disadvantaged businesses dropped. Agencies, however, met the 5% goal, awarding 11.6%, or $75.3 billion, to SDBs, SBA says. In 2024, agencies awarded $78.3 billion or 12.3% to SDBs. A big reason for this drop is the additional scrutiny SBA applied to the 8(a) program. SBA says after its audit, it removed nearly 800 8(a) firms from the program after they failed to meet program requirements or refused to turn over financial documents for review by the agency.

Read more at The Federal News Network

Pentagon Races To Spend $152B Reconciliation Pot — Or Face Cuts

The Pentagon is in a race to get $152 billion in 2025 reconciliation spending under contract by the end of September or lose a chunk of the cash. The Pentagon has already issued guidance to its program offices on how to spend the money before the deadline hits at the end of the fiscal year, a senior department official told Breaking Defense this week. “Our strategy focuses on maximizing the utility of every dollar in a timely, yet responsible, manner,” the official said. The looming deadline means the pressure is on to spend, especially given that only $26 billion had been placed on contract by late April, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers at the time, leaving $126 billion to spend over the next five months.

Last year, lawmakers approved the One Big Beautiful Bill, a sprawling mega-bill that included roughly $152 billion for an array of defense initiatives, including Golden Dome, two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, munitions, nuclear modernization and more. Although that legislation dictated broad contours for how money should be spent, not all of the defense spending in the bill was tied to specific weapons programs — giving the Pentagon latitude for how it executed the funding. The Pentagon can spend those funds over several years, but there is a caveat: if it is not contracted out by the start of fiscal 2027 on Oct. 1, the remaining balance will be hit with an 8.3 percent cut.

Read more at Breaking Defense

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The Rise Of ‘GLP-1 Plus’: Employers Rethinking Weight-Loss Drug Coverage

A new report from Goldman Sachs Ayco suggests a new term for the balance employers are trying to find between investment and cost: “GLP-1 plus.” It’s a strategy, the organization says, that closely ties eligibility with adherence to broader lifestyle requirements. While three-quarters require employees to meet body mass index requirements, about 51% are expanding eligibility, pairing BMI metrics with other measures like enrollment in health programs. This approach emphasizes medication as just one component of a broader health strategy, a holistic view that, they say could lead to longer-term healthcare savings for employers.

About 60% of survey respondents are not considering changes to their GLP-1 coverage in the near term, researchers say, suggesting these organizations are either satisfied with their current “restrictive posture” or are being intentional about changing plans until more data emerges about both costs and health outcomes. Those that are eyeing a shift are evenly split between enhancing and diminishing coverage, highlighting the complexities facing HR and benefits leaders. Understanding the market and the cost-reduction strategies is key in this environment, researchers say. “Some employers have expressed an interest in setting up direct-to-consumer channels, enabling employees’ access to the medication through an added benefit with employer funding,” they write. “This can be a cost-effective way of helping employees access the drug without medical plan coverage, while also ensuring employer guardrails apply.”

Read more at HR Executive

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Trade Wars

FedEx to Send Tariff Refunds To Customers Starting In August

FedEx will begin passing refunds on now-defunct tariffs back to customers that originally paid them starting in August, EVP and Chief Customer Officer Brie Carere said in an earnings call Tuesday. FedEx started receiving government-issued refunds for International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs on May 11, per the company’s website. The refunds are being sent to FedEx as the importer of record. At the end of the month, FedEx had $800 million in IEEPA tariff refunds slated to go back to customers that originally bore the charges, according to the company’s Q4 earnings report.

“FedEx remains fully committed to remitting all applicable duties — along with any accrued interest received from the U.S. Treasury — as quickly as possible,” according to FedEx’s website. “At the same time, we are managing over 20 million entries with IEEPA duties across hundreds of thousands of accounts.” FedEx said it will launch a portal by July 10 that will allow customers to verify whether a refund for a shipment has been received by the company, along with the refund’s value. Shippers who allow for “sharing limited shipment and refund data with trusted vendor partners” within the portal will be prioritized for disbursement, with initial refunds beginning to be disbursed around Aug. 10, per FedEx.

Read more at Supply Chain Dive

IBM Shows Sub-1-nm Chips, Targeting Production in 5 Years

IBM today announced the world’s first sub-1-nm (0.7-nm) chip manufacturing technology, with initial production expected from IBM partners in five years. The company said its new “nanostack” tech can pack nearly 100 billion transistors on a chip, doubling the density of IBM’s first 2-nm nanosheet device, a 2021 innovation that today has transformed the chip industry. The company expects nanostack to have the same long-lasting impact.

A nanostack includes two transistors in two nanosheets built on top of each other. The nanosheets are about 5 nm high, roughly equivalent to the height of 15 silicon atoms. The distance between the two sheets is 9 nm. The company expects the new tech will help scale logic and SRAM down to smaller dimensions. Earlier this year, IBM and Lam Research announced a partnership to make chips beyond the 1-nm node. The partners have a five-year agreement focused on developing new materials, fabrication processes, and high-NA EUV lithography.

Read more at EE Times

Qualcomm Technologies Agrees To Acquire Modular For $3.9B

Qualcomm has struck a deal to acquire software infrastructure firm Modular for roughly $3.9 billion in an effort to spur adoption of its edge-to-cloud artificial intelligence platforms. According to a securities filing, under the agreement, Qualcomm will issue up to 19.2 million shares of its common stock to the equity owners of Modular. The deal will help Qualcomm “deliver a silicon-agnostic compute layer across devices, edge and data centers,” the company said. It added that this will improve semiconductor performance, increase hardware flexibility and otherwise allow for more efficient AI deployment.

The planned acquisition follows Qualcomm’s agreement last year to purchase Alphawave Semi for $2.4 billion, with the goal of better positioning itself for the AI and data center boom. Along the same lines, its acquisition of Modular reportedly will help it compete with Nvidia in meeting increasing AI demand, Reuters reported. “As AI scales, efficiency, not capability, becomes a constraint,” Qualcomm said in the press release. “Performance-per-watt drives the cost of inference, and cost determines what scales.” According to Qualcomm, in addition to better hardware, meeting demand for AI will require software that “connects system-level optimization with heterogeneous, disaggregated compute, turning silicon performance into reliable and efficient AI services across accelerators, environments, and use cases.”

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

How Ford Turned Around Quality Woes To Become Top Mass-Market Brand In JD Power Quality Study

Ford Motor Co.’s efforts to improve vehicle quality over the past several years are starting to bear fruit. The company has earned the top spot in JD Power’s 2026 U.S. Initial Quality Study among mainstream brands, marking the first time since 2010 that the automaker gained the title. Ford said in a company press release it improved its quality in nearly every vehicle category measured by JD Power, including powertrain reliability.

Ford’s ascent to the top spot comes just three years after it ranked No. 16 in JD Power’s initial quality rankings. That same year, in 2023, Ford created an Industrial System team in which vehicle engineering, manufacturing, supply chain and quality teams work together under one organization, according to a company press release published after JD Power revealed its study Thursday. Since its creation, Ford’s Industrial System team, led by Chief Operating Officer Kumar Galhotra, has worked to break silos between internal teams to find and fix quality issues before they reach customers. This year, the team evolved to become Ford’s new end-to-end Product Creation and Industrialization organization, bringing together the automaker’s digital, design and global industrial teams.

Read more at Ward’s Auto

US Steel Pumping $475 Million Into Fairfield Alabama Operations

U.S. Steel will spend about $475 million to install a new quench and tempering line at its Fairfield tubular operations plant. According to the company, the move will add internal capacity for heat-treated product to support growing demand in the oil and gas industries among new and long-standing customers. The company also plans “significant improvements,” which will include enhanced employee areas and the addition of a training center using virtual reality technology, promoting workforce development and safety. U.S. Steel CEO David Burritt called the plan “a significant milestone in our commitment to American manufacturing excellence.”

Last November, U.S. Steel announced it was installing a new $75 million premium thread line at its Fairfield tubular operations plant, creating 44 jobs. The move was part of a larger push by the company to modernize its plants following the merger with Nippon Steel that was consumated last June. In 2020, U. S. Steel began operating its advanced $412 million electric arc furnace in Fairfield, with the ability to produce 1.6 million tons of steel a year.

Read more at AL.com

Volkswagen Plans To Cut 15% Of Its Workforce And Close Four German Plants, Report Says

Auto giant Volkswagen is planning to cut 100,000 jobs and end production at four German plants over the coming years, according to a report from Manager Magazin, in a move that would represent the most radical overhaul in the firm’s 89-year history. The plan, reported on Friday, would see Europe’s largest automobile manufacturer shed roughly 15% of its workforce as it seeks to counter intensifying competition from Chinese car brands. It would also see the Wolfsburg-headquartered company reduce planned investment in the company by about 15% to just over 130 billion euros ($148.2 billion) over the next five years and cease production at plants in Hanover, Zwickau, Emden, alongside Audi’s Neckarsulm site.

A spokesperson for the company declined to comment on “internal, confidential documents” when contacted by CNBC, saying decisions would be taken and approved by the relevant governing bodies, according to a Google translation. “The entire Group—including its brands and subsidiaries—must undergo profound change,” the spokesperson said. Volkswagen’s General Works Council and German industrial union IG Metall pledged to push back against the reported job cuts and plant closures. “If such plans were to be pushed forward, we would prevent them with all our might,” they said in a joint statement. Volkswagen had a workforce of about 657,400 employees at the end of the first quarter of 2026, according to the company.

Read more at CNBC

Onsemi To Buy Synaptics In $7 Billion All-Stock Deal

ON Semiconductor Corp said on Thursday it had agreed to acquire Synaptics in an all-stock ​deal valued at about $7 billion, its largest ‌acquisition to date, as the chipmaker seeks to expand its presence in AI-enabled devices and so-called physical AI. Under the terms of the agreement, Synaptics shareholders will receive 1.350 shares of ‌Onsemi ​common stock for each Synaptics ⁠share. The exchange ratio ⁠represents a 19% premium based on the 10-day volume-weighted average closing prices of the two companies’ stocks.

The acquisition is aimed at accelerating growth in so-called ​physical AI, which refers to AI embedded in devices and machines. Synaptics’ connected-computing platform complements Onsemi’s ⁠strengths in automotive, power and ⁠industrial markets, Onsemi CEO Hassane El-Khoury told ​Reuters in an interview. Onsemi expects the deal to help increase the size of the markets it can target ⁠by $30 billion, to $243 ‌billion by 2030. The chipmaker ​also aims ⁠to capture growth from Synaptics’ human‑machine interface business and its broader technology and R&D in robotics and humanoid markets, El-Khoury said.

Read more at Reuters

Pentagon Issues $35B to Lockheed for Missiles

Lockheed Martin has a new, seven-year contract from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency to manufacture THAAD interceptor missiles, with a total value of $35.33 billion. The award is the first for Lockheed following the seven-year framework agreements that the Pentagon extended to three defense contractors in March, seeking to incentivize them to accelerate ballistic missile production. Prior to the framework agreement, Lockheed drew a seven-year contract to triple its output of Patriot anti-ballistic missile systems.

The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor missiles have infrared sensors located in the nose to detect, track, and lock onto incoming ballistic missiles during their final, terminal phase. They involve high-sensitivity infrared technology that guides missiles to destroy threats by kinetic impact rather than explosives. Lockheed will manufacture the missiles at a new plant under construction now in Troy, Ala., and at plants in Dallas, Sunnyvale, Calif., and Camden, Ark. The MDA contract stated that missile production capacity will increase from 96 interceptors per year to 400 per year over seven years. Estimates place the total number of THAAD interceptors to be produced under the new award at 2,000 to 2,300 over seven years.

Read more at American Machinist

America Can’t Get Enough Of Protein. The Dairy Industry Can’t Keep Up

America’s “protein-maxxing” obsession is stressing the dairy industry. Whey protein concentrate, once considered a cheap byproduct of the cheese manufacturing process, has become one of the most in-demand ingredients in the American diet. The surge is creating nationwide shortages, with some suppliers sold out for the latter half of the year, according to a USDA report from late April. U.S. whey protein end-of-month inventories have fallen by roughly half since 2023.

With the boom in use of GLP-1 weight loss drugs — which is poised to expand across many more Americans due to Medicare coverage — protein consumption is headed higher at least in the short term. Use of these drugs requires users to increase protein consumption to avoid muscle loss. And that continued expansion of weight-loss drug coverage comes at a time when protein is already in high demand among Americans in many consumable forms. “It’s a multi-dimensional supply exercise,” said Phil Plourd, dairy analyst at Ever.Ag. “Supply has grown, but it is hard for it to grow as fast as demand,” he said.

Read more at CNBC 

Daily Market Update June 26, 2026

The July ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.10 at $3.44. The August ‘26 crude oil contract is down $2.46 at $69.46. 

Read more at NRG

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Antoine de Saint-Exupéry - French Author of 'The Little Prince.' - He was born on this Day in 1900.

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