Member Briefing March 19, 2026

Posted By: Harold King Daily Briefing,

US Factory Orders Slightly Higher In January

New orders for U.S. factory goods edged up in January as weakness in transportation equipment partially offset gains elsewhere, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Wednesday. Factory orders rose ​0.1% after an upwardly revised 0.4% drop in December, The gain was in line with economists' expectations. Orders were previously reported to have declined 0.7% in December. Orders increased 3.5% year-on-year in January.

Factory goods orders were in January supported by increases in machinery and primary metals as well as demand for computers and electronic products, likely related to an artificial intelligence investment boom. But orders for ​electrical equipment, appliances and ​components fell 0.6%, ⁠while those for transportation equipment dropped 0.8% as demand for defense aircraft and parts tumbled 23.8%. The Census Bureau also reported that ​orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which are seen as ​a measure ⁠of business spending plans on equipment, ticked up 0.1% in January instead of being unchanged as was initially reported last week. Shipments of these so-called core capital goods dipped 0.1% ⁠as ​previously reported.

Read more at Census.Gov

JOLT Report Shows Rising Openings And Job Growth In January. 500k Openings In Manufacturing

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLT) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said that the number of total non-farm job openings in January rose to 6.95 million. This is up 396,000 openings for the month. Total job openings are down 485,000 openings from their year-ago level but are higher than their levels reported for the last 2 months. Hiring was reported to be up by 22,000 jobs from last month’s figure and are up 56,000 from the level in the same month last year. Total hires came in at 5.29 million hires. job openings in the manufacturing industry increased by about 11% year over year, to 495,000.

Total separations fell 98,000 from last month’s figure to a level of 5.11 million. Within total separations, quits were reported to fall by 88,000 jobs while layoffs fell by 35,000 jobs. Quits represented 61.4 percent of total separations for the month, slightly above the trailing 12-month average of 60.7 percent. Of those leaving their jobs in January, 3.14 million quit voluntarily, while 1.63 million people were involuntarily separated from their jobs. The remainder of people leaving their jobs left for other reasons, such as retirements or transfers. In manufacturing Separations decreased approximately 12% year over year to 294,000. Separations included 162,000 quits and 112,000 layoffs and discharges, according to the BLS. Other separations, which factor in retirement, death, disability and transfers within a company, remained flat at 20,000.

Read more at Manufacturing Dive

Economists Warn Rising Oil Prices May Push U.S. Into A Recession

The Iran war has boosted oil and gas prices in recent weeks, raising concerns—and betting odds—among economists that a recession may be coming if oil costs remain elevated for an extended period.

  • Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, wrote Monday that a recession is “once again a serious threat” and that the firm’s economic models placed the odds of a recession starting in the next 12 months at 49%, pointing to the latest decline in the job market.
  • Wells Fargo Securities analysts wrote that oil prices as high as $130 per barrel would increase the risk of a recession if those costs persisted for months, resulting in high enough gas prices for Americans to cut back on spending and for businesses to “revise staffing.”
  • Economists at Oxford Economics warned that global oil prices would need to average around $140 per barrel for two months, in addition to tightening financial conditions, such as higher interest rates, would be enough to push parts of the global economy into a “mild” recession.
  • Vanguard analysts wrote that, to induce a recession in the U.S, oil prices would need to settle at $150 per barrel—oil hit an all-time high of $147 in 2008—for the rest of the year, should interest rates also increase and asset prices weaken.
  • However, The Federal Reserve - which warned in 2001 that rising oil prices usually precede most recessions - noted the U.S. economy has become more resilient in recent decades and is better positioned to absorb the impact of higher energy costs.
  • Economists from Vanguard and Wells Fargo both argued a short-lived surge in oil prices wouldn’t be enough to disrupt the economy, even if a “sustained rise” in energy costs weakens income growth.

Read more at Forbes

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White House Offers Shutdown Concessions

The White House and Senate Democrats exchanged offers Monday and Tuesday on a deal to pass legislation funding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for the remainder of the 2026 fiscal year, which runs through September 30. DHS has been shut down since February 14, when a two-week funding extension expired.

On Tuesday, the White House released a letter addressed to Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Katie Britt of Alabama, agreeing to expand the use of body-worn cameras in non-undercover immigration operations, limit operations at “certain sensitive locations … like hospitals and schools,” ensure Congress can properly oversee DHS detention facilities, require non-undercover federal agents to display “visible officer identification,” and “adhere to existing law and practice of not deporting any U.S. citizen.”

Read more at NY State of Politics

New York's All-Electric Building Law Sits In Legal Limbo As Housing Costs And Grid Pressure Mount

The New York Independent System Operator's 2025 Power Trends Report warns that data centers, artificial intelligence facilities and the push to electrify homes and cars are driving demand higher, while aging power plants are going offline faster than new ones can replace them. At the center of the debate is the All-Electric Buildings Act, a 2023 law that would ban gas hookups in most new buildings under seven stories starting this year and expanding to all new construction by 2029.

Gov. Kathy Hochul agreed to delay implementation of the law in November after gas and construction trade groups filed a federal court challenge and it currently rests with the Second Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals. The law will not be reconsidered until at least September. Republicans argue that forcing builders to go electric will make an already expensive housing market even worse. The New York State Builders Association did a study and said this could increase the cost of construction for new home ownership by up to $25,000. Proponents also argue that once new all-electric buildings are up and running, the savings are real. A report from the nonprofit think tank Switchbox estimated families in new all-electric homes could save more than $1,000 a year compared to gas-heated homes.

Read more NY State of Politics

Fed Holds Rates Steady as Iran War Clouds Outlook

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady Wednesday and preserved a path to cutting rates this year as higher energy prices from the Iran war threaten to prolong their yearslong inflation fight. Officials voted 11-1 to hold the benchmark federal-funds rate in a range between 3.5% and 3.75%, the second consecutive meeting with no change. In new quarterly projections, 12 of 19 meeting participants penciled in at least one cut this year, the same as in December, though several officials penciled in fewer reductions. One participant penciled in a rate hike for next year.

The debate over what to do next is complicated by uncertainty over how much the Fed’s rapid rate increases of 2022-23 are still weighing on the economy. With stable economic growth and inflation making little progress toward the Fed’s goal over the past year, some officials and analysts question whether rates are high enough to restrain growth at all. For officials who see inflation drifting up, it is difficult to justify rate cuts if they also believe rates are already at a neutral level that neither spurs nor slows growth. At the same time, officials who believe policy is still restrictive have worried that holding firm carries its own risk if the labor market deteriorates further.

Read more at The WSJ

More Policy and Politics Headlines

Mental Health Challenges Affecting Employee Performance

Over the past years, recognizing that mental health is a major issue among employees has given rise to companies implementing programs to address this issue. "The question is no longer whether mental health support exists, but whether it intervenes early enough and effectively enough to meaningfully improve lives,” says Jennifer Schulz, CEO of Lyra Health, in a statement in its new report, 2026 State of Workforce Mental Health, released on March 17. The report, based on surveys of more than 500 benefits leaders and 7,500 employees across six countries, found that employees are experiencing gaps in the current mental health systems at their workplaces. Key highlights of the survey are as follows:

  • 1 in 3 employees say they’re merely surviving
  • 1 in 4 say their mental health declined in the past year
  • 7 in 10 benefits leaders say employee mental health challenges had a significant impact on employee performance over the last year
  • 68% say mental health benefit use is increasing and demand is growing overall
  • 65% report more mental health-related leave or disability

Read more at EHS Today

Upcoming Council Programs

Events

Manufacturing Champions Award Breakfast and Workforce Developers Expo - Thursday May 7, 2026 -7:45 - 10:00 AM. West Hills Country Club, Middletown.

Networks

HR Sub Council Meeting Topic TBD, April 23, 2026, 8:15 - 11:00 AM. Location Ulster BOCES Career Academy, iPark 87, Kingston.

Insight Exchange - On Demand Webinars

Training

Certificate in Manufacturing Leadership Program Spring Session, In Person at iPark 87 in Kingston. Supervisor Training Program for Hudson Valley Manufacturers. 7 Courses (8 full day sessions) April 29 - July 15.

Trade Wars

The Iran Supply Chain Crisis Is Headed Toward Full-Blown Collapse

As prices at the gas pump rise, a less-public-facing cascade of disruptions is reconfiguring industrial costs and threatening shortages across manufacturing sectors. The image of an oil tanker stalled in the Strait of Hormuz is a hauntingly familiar trope of Middle Eastern geopolitics. However, as of this writing, the escalation of conflict with Iran has transcended the typical energy-crisis narrative. While the world watches the heartbreaking human toll and the military maneuvers, a structural collapse is occurring beneath the surface of the global economy. This is no longer just about the price at the pump. It is about the domino effect paralyzing everything from life-saving oncology treatments to the silicon chips powering the AI revolution.

The most immediate failure point remains fuels, but the more insidious threat lies in the maritime and insurance markets. Major shipping lines have suspended operations in the Persian Gulf. Insurance premiums for the region have skyrocketed as the "Smart Control" of the strait imposes massive war-risk premiums on global trade. This logistical paralysis has trapped approximately 147 container ships, nearly 1.4% of global capacity, inside the Gulf. Carriers like Maersk have been forced into the Cape of Good Hope reroute, adding 10 to 14 days to transit times and increasing fuel consumption by 40%. For the consumer, this manifests as war-risk surcharges that can reach as high as $4,000 per container, an inflationary pressure that will soon be felt in every aisle of the supermarket.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Hyundai To Integrate Nvidia’s Drive Hyperion Platform In Select Vehicles

Hyundai Motor Group is expanding its partnership with Nvidia to accelerate the deployment of next-generation, Level 2 advanced driver assist systems and more advanced Level 4 autonomous driving technology, the company announced in a press release. The automaker is developing a scalable AI-powered autonomous driving architecture and will integrate Nvidia’s Drive Hyperion platform in select Hyundai and Kia vehicles, including robotaxis through Hyundai’s autonomous driving joint venture Motional.

Nvidia’s Drive Hyperion is a production-ready, end-to-end autonomous driving platform and reference architecture. It combines a standardized vehicle sensor suite, high-performance processor and software stack that supports over-the-air updates, allowing Hyundai to introduce new features and improve its performance for the entire life of the vehicle. The platform can be used for a wide range of vehicle types, including passenger vehicles, robotaxis and delivery fleets, according to Nvidia. It supports up to 14 cameras, 12 ultrasonic sensors, nine radar units, one lidar, four interior cameras and an array of external microphones for autonomous driving.

Read more at Ward’s Auto

BMW Launches Electric 3 Series As i3 With 900-Km Range, August Production Start

BMW’s new class of EVs begins with the iX3 SUV, but you had to know it wouldn’t end there. The company’s engineers didn’t spend all that time working up a completely redesigned and substantially more efficient EV platform just for one crossover, and now it’s time for the second wave. Meet the new i3, which takes the same basic motor, battery, and electronics package that powers the iX3, plus the Neue Klasse’s controversial styling cues, and applies it to a more familiar sedan shape, the sort of silhouette that BMW’s reputation was largely built upon.

Despite this new machine sharing a name with the quirky yet beloved electric i3 hatchback produced from 2013 to 2022, the new i3 is a wholly different proposition. The original i3 deserves a lot of respect for establishing BMW’s EV intentions, but little in terms of its design or architecture lives on in this new machine. The new i3 is built on BMW’s Neue Klasse platform, which starts with a new battery design using cylindrical cells arranged in a cell-to-pack configuration that offers higher energy density than BMW’s prior packs. The company hasn’t quoted a formal capacity for the i3, but I’d expect it to fall somewhere around the 108.7kWh usable capacity of the iX3 SUV, enough for what BMW says is 440 miles on a charge. And 400kW charging should mean adding over 200 miles of range in about 10 minutes

Read more at The Verge

Chip Testing Latest Chokepoint As Nvidia, Google Designs Grow More Complex

Semiconductor testing is a cornerstone of chip manufacturing. Traditionally, it has been focused on ensuring chip quality and reliability, acting as a critical checkpoint before devices reach customers. However, due to rapid advancements in semiconductor processing and packaging technologies test has become increasingly vital throughout the design, fabrication, and manufacturing process. As chips grow more complex, the demands placed on testing are intensifying. In this new “Era of Complexity,” semiconductor test itself must evolve. Increasingly, it is AI that is enabling the industry to meet its own heightened challenges. 

The Era of Complexity refers to the unprecedented scale, integration, and performance requirements of today’s semiconductors. Advanced AI and HPC chips contain billions of transistors and employ heterogeneous integration, which involves using advanced packaging techniques to stack and combine many dies into a single, compact system-in-a-package. The value of this technique is that it allows for greater performance, functionality, and efficiency than traditional chip packaging containing one or a few chips. To meet these challenges, AI technology is increasingly being utilized to test AI chips. The role of AI extends across various testing applications, including adaptive test strategies, yield optimization, and fault prediction and isolation. By integrating AI into semiconductor testing environments, the industry can effectively tackle advanced defects related to chip packaging and other challenges.

Read more at AI Journal

Space Boom Strains Supply Chain, Industry Report Warns

The growth of the space industry is putting new strain on the supply chain that supports satellite manufacturing, launch systems, and related technologies, according to a report from the Aerospace Industries Association and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). The report, “Strengthening America’s Space Supply Chain,” says the U.S. space sector is entering a period of accelerated growth driven by commercial ventures, government missions and national security priorities. But the industry’s supply network, built for smaller volumes and slower production cycles, is struggling to keep pace.

Many suppliers were originally structured around low-volume, high-cost government programs with long development timelines. Today’s market demands faster production and much higher output. Suppliers have been hesitant to expand capacity, the report says, partly because demand from government programs is often uncertain and subject to budget swings. The result is a growing number of bottlenecks across critical parts of the supply chain.

Read more at Space News

Alcoa Seeing Order Uptick From Iran War Worries

Buyers of aluminum have been knocking on Alcoa Corp.’s doors for metal that they’re afraid they may not soon get from Middle East smelters, the company’s CFO told investors March 17. “We’re actually seeing an uptick in orders from customers and inquiries related to second quarter and the second half of the year,” Mollie Beerman said at the JPMorgan Industrials Conference 2026 in Washington, D.C. “They’re now worried about getting supply for the second half. So we do have additional spot orders coming in, and that should help us […] later in the year.”

Beerman said the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has not hurt demand for Alcoa’s products or for its customers’ businesses. But they have severely hamstrung aluminum smelters in the Middle East, she added. Those facilities produce about 7 million metric tons of aluminum and account for about 9% of the world’s aluminum supply. With their products unable to leave the region, prices have surged more than 10% from a month ago and Beerman said that should quickly show up in Alcoa’s bottom line.

Read more at IndustryWeek

Meta Is Reportedly Planning Its Biggest Layoff Since 2022

Meta is preparing what could be its largest layoff since 2022, with cuts targeting about 20% of its roughly 79,000‑person workforce, according to multiple media reports citing sources familiar with internal discussions. That would mean roughly 16,000 people out the door. This doesn’t seem to be because the business is failing (Meta reported more than $200 billion in revenue for 2025), but because AI‑related infrastructure and R&D costs are surging.

The stated rationale for the layoffs is they could offset costly AI infrastructure investments while preparing for a future in which AI‑assisted workers can do more with less. Investors have so far responded positively. Some analysts have framed this as a signal that AI is increasingly driving productivity, with implications far beyond Meta. Meta’s rumored cuts would follow multiple rounds of recent downsizing. The company eliminated about 3,600 employees through performance-based terminations in 2025, then began 2026 by cutting more than 1,000 roles in its Reality Labs division as it shifted resources to AI‑powered products. Taken together with prior reductions since 2022, Meta has already shed tens of thousands of jobs.

Read more at HR Executive

PwC Study: Building 10 AP1000s Would Lead to GDP Surge

Constructing 10 large-scale nuclear reactors in the U.S. could generate nearly $100 billion in gross domestic product and support tens of thousands of jobs, according to a new study.  The PwC study, commissioned by Westinghouse Electric Company and released earlier this month, found that Westinghouse’s plans to build 10 of its AP1000 units will have a direct GDP impact of $39.2 billion during construction alone. Thereafter, “indirect and induced effects” will add $53.6 billion to the economic impact of the fleet, the combined capacity of which is expected to be 11.5 gigawatts. “The study estimates $20.1 [billion] in tax revenues over the construction period.”

There are currently six AP1000s operating worldwide. Two are in the U.S., at Plant Vogtle in Georgia. They are the only nuclear reactors built in the country in the past 30 years. Nuclear power is safe, clean and abundant, and it’s a critical part of a secure, winning energy strategy,” said NAM Vice President of Domestic Policy Chris Phalen. “It’s also an economic powerhouse, as this study shows, and manufacturers support Westinghouse’s plans to build more AP1000s.

Read more at NUCNET

UK To Convert Former Coal Station Into The Nation’s First Fusion Power Plant

The UK has taken a significant step towards clean, virtually limitless energy after advancing plans to transform a former coal station into the nation’s first fusion power plant. Once operational, the prototype plant is expected to show how fusion, which has long been considered the holy grail of energy, can be harnessed for reliable, low-carbon power generation. It will be built at the site of the former coal-fired West Burton Power Station near Gainsborough, which was commissioned in 1966 and ran until 2023.

The move marks a turning point for the Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production (STEP) program. The world-leading project, which supports the development of a commercial fusion industry in the UK by around 2040, will now finally shift from years of research into a full delivery phase. “This the moment we move from research to delivery, setting a clear path to build the UK’s prototype fusion plant at West Burton,” Paul Methven, UK Fusion Energy CEO, concluded in a press release.

Read more at Interesting Engineering

Daily Market Update Feb 23, 2026

The Mar ’26 natural gas contract is trading up $0.02 at $3.07. The Apr ‘26 crude oil contract is up $0.22 at $66.80.

Read more at NRG

Learn more about the Council of Industry Energy Buying Group

Quote of the Day

“If you have men who will only come if they know there is a good road, I don't want them. I want men who will come if there is no road at all.”

David Livingstone - British Physician and Explorer who was born on this day in 1813.

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